NewRiver REIT plc (NRR) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · GB · Market cap 351M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +2.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 21% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (£0.7140 to £1.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.4695 – £0.8269 · fair‑value band £0.7140 – £1.33 · the £0.8130 price screens below the £0.9860 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
NewRiver REIT plc (NRR) currently trades at £0.8130, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.9860, implying the stock looks roughly 21.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, NewRiver REIT plc generated revenue of £121M at a net margin of 24.7%. Revenue grew 95.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. Net debt stands at £402M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £0.7140 (bear case) to £1.33 (bull case); at £0.8130, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at 21%, NRR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (£1.25) versus Growth DCF (£0.2100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NewRiver REIT plc (NewRiver) is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust specializing in buying, managing and developing resilient retail assets throughout the UK.
Full company description
NewRiver REIT plc (NewRiver) is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust specializing in buying, managing and developing resilient retail assets throughout the UK. Following the completion of its acquisition of Capital & Regional in December 2024, NewRiver has a 0.8 billion pounds UK wide portfolio covering 7.0 million sq ft, comprising 24 community shopping centres and 11 conveniently located retail parks occupied by tenants predominately focused on essential goods and services. In addition, we manage 19 shopping centres and 17 retail parks on behalf of Capital Partners, taking our total Assets Under Management to 2.3 billion pounds. Our objective is to own and manage the most resilient retail portfolio in the UK, focused on retail parks, core shopping centres and regeneration opportunities to deliver long-term attractive recurring income returns and capital growth for our shareholders. NewRiver is listed on the Equity shares (commercial companies) category of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. NewRiver REIT plc was incorporated in 2009 in United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
NewRiver REIT plc reported revenue of £130M in FY2026 versus £75.0M in FY2022, a compound +14.8%/yr. Reported net income was £31.7M in FY2026, compounding +45.9%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +3.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −8.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
REIT - Retail · 107 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Property Group SPG | $229.78 | $86.11 | -63% |
| Realty Income Corporation O | $65.60 | $30.71 | -53% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €103.65 | €101.67 | -2% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $26.10 | $12.60 | -52% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.47 SGD | 0.9100 SGD | -63% |
| Scentre Group SCG | A$3.93 | A$3.34 | -15% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $82.15 | $33.69 | -59% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$39.22 | HK$41.98 | +7% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $126.08 | $41.96 | -67% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $32.44 | $13.18 | -59% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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