Norske Skog ASA (NSKOG) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · NO · Market cap 2.9B NOK
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +1.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 42% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 56.76). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 14.22 – kr 74.59 · fair‑value band kr 56.76 – kr 68.59 · the kr 42.40 price screens below the kr 60.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Norske Skog ASA (NSKOG) currently trades at kr 42.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 60.18, implying the stock looks roughly 41.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Norske Skog ASA generated revenue of 9.4B NOK at a net margin of 3.6%. Revenue declined 2.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.9%. Net debt stands at 4.4B NOK. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 56.76 (bear case) to kr 68.59 (bull case); at kr 42.40, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 200% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 42%, NSKOG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (kr 81.15) versus Earnings-Based (kr 19.05). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Norske Skog ASA engages in the production and sale of publication and packaging paper products in Norway, rest of Europe, North America, Asia, South America, Central America, and Africa. It operates through Publication Paper, Packaging Paper, and Other Activities segments.
Full company description
Norske Skog ASA engages in the production and sale of publication and packaging paper products in Norway, rest of Europe, North America, Asia, South America, Central America, and Africa. It operates through Publication Paper, Packaging Paper, and Other Activities segments. The company offers publication paper products comprising newsprint, uncoated mechanical improved, supercalendered, coated mechanical, magazine paper, and book paper; and packaging papers. Its products are primarily used in magazines, periodicals, catalogues, brochures, newspapers, inserts, and for advertising purposes. The company was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Norske Skog ASA reported revenue of kr 9.4B in FY2025 versus kr 9.8B in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was kr 405M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$17.58 | R$3.89 | -78% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.45 | €15.47 | -34% |
| Suzano S.A SUZB3 | R$41.70 | R$138.01 | +231% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 103.00 | kr 49.40 | -52% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥14.13 | ¥17.29 | +22% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 305.40 | kr 217.72 | -29% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.55 | HK$8.73 | +16% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,078 CLP | 1,269 CLP | +18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.09 | ¥21.06 | -0% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 68.70 | kr 48.60 | -29% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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