NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. ₹179, price ₹127, upside +40.3%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹57.75 – ₹282.55 · fair‑value band ₹72.28 – ₹374.09 · the ₹127.30 price screens below the ₹178.60 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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NTC Industries Limited manufactures and sells cigarettes and smoking mixtures in India. It also offers matchboxes under the R'Gent brand; and incense sticks under the Agardeep brand. The company sells its tobacco products under the Regent, Carlton, Jaipur, Prince Henry, Ritz, Neel, La Rose, First Lady, Cool, No 10, Maypole, and Jaipur brands.
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NTC Industries Limited manufactures and sells cigarettes and smoking mixtures in India. It also offers matchboxes under the R'Gent brand; and incense sticks under the Agardeep brand. The company sells its tobacco products under the Regent, Carlton, Jaipur, Prince Henry, Ritz, Neel, La Rose, First Lady, Cool, No 10, Maypole, and Jaipur brands. It also operates in Japan, the United States, Russia, Germany, and the United Arab Emirates. The company was formerly known as RDB Industries Ltd and changed its name to NTC Industries Limited in March 2011. NTC Industries Limited was founded in 1931 and is based in Kolkata, India.
Stock analysis
NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND) currently trades at ₹127.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹178.60, implying the stock looks roughly 28.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹525.18 per share, and 10 of the 15 models we run sit above the ₹127.30 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ₹82.47, and 5 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ₹72.28 (bear) to ₹374.09 (bull), the price of ₹127.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. reported revenue of ₹974M in FY2026 versus ₹312M in FY2022, a compound +32.9%/yr. Reported net income was ₹196M in FY2026, compounding +21.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹1.8B (≈ $19.2M) · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 1.85 · EPS (TTM) ₹13.79 · Net margin 20.1% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin 23.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at 40%, NTCIND screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹72.28Fair Value ₹178.60Bull ₹374.09
Price ₹127.30 · Upside +40.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹7.10 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+113.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.9% vs 15.9%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 20%
2026 sits 155% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 36 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+40.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.3% · Below median
Return on assets4.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)17.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)23.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−20.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
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Is NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹178.60 versus a price of ₹127.30, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NTCIND?
Our model-based fair value for NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. is ₹178.60 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹127.30.
What is the quality score of NTCIND?
NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹178.60 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹72.28, optimistic scenario ₹374.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹178.60, about +40% upside versus a price of ₹127.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹72.28, optimistic scenario ₹374.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹1.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. it is ₹178.60 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of ₹127.30. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, NTCIND trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹127.30, fair value ₹178.60, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NTCIND?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹127.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹178.60). For NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. the two are ₹51.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. worth?
The market values NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. at about ₹1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is ₹127.30; our models calculate a fair value of ₹178.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NTCIND?
Our models span a range for NTC INDUSTRIES LTD.: cautious scenario ₹72.28, base ₹178.60, optimistic ₹374.09 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price ₹127.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NTCIND?
NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹178.60 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
Balance-sheet figures for NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NTCIND from its 52-week high?
NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. trades at ₹127.30, about 37% below its 52-week high of ₹203.30 and at the low of ₹127.30 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹178.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NTC INDUSTRIES LTD.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, British American Tobacco p.l.c., Altria Group, ITC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price ₹127.30, calculated fair value ₹178.60 (+40%), Quality Score 39/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NTCIND calculated?
We run NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹178.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹127.30. Our model-based fair value is ₹178.60, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (₹72.28 to ₹374.09). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD.
How large is the market capitalisation of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
The market capitalisation of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. is ₹1.8B (≈ $19.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. is 1.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
Earnings per share at NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. are ₹13.79 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
The net margin of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. is 20.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
The operating margin of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. is 23.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
Revenue at NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. is growing −20.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND)?
Earnings per share at NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. are growing +8.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND) generate?
The free cash flow of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. is −₹96.5M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. (NTCIND) carry?
The net debt of NTC INDUSTRIES LTD. is ₹754M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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