Natwest Group PLC (NWG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Natwest Group PLC is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.61 – $19.42 · fair‑value band $10.42 – $19.67 · the $18.67 price screens above the $13.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through the Retail Banking, Private Banking, and Commercial & Institutional segments.
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NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through the Retail Banking, Private Banking, and Commercial & Institutional segments. The Retail Banking segment offers a range of banking products and related financial services, such as current accounts, mortgages, personal unsecured lending, and personal deposits, as well as mobile and online banking services. Its Private Banking segment provides banking, lending, and wealth management products for high-net-worth individuals and their business interests. The Commercial & Institutional segment consists of customer businesses under business banking, commercial mid-market, and corporates and institutions; and offers banking operations services in the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Gibraltar, and Luxembourg, as well as products and solutions for businesses comprising start-ups, corporates, and large institutions. The company was formerly known as The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc and changed its name to NatWest Group plc in July 2020. NatWest Group plc was founded in 1727 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Natwest Group PLC (NWG) currently trades at $18.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.00, implying the stock looks roughly 43.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.99 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $18.67 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.73, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.42 (bear) to $19.67 (bull), the price of $18.67 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Natwest Group PLC reported revenue of $29.5B in FY2025 versus $12.0B in FY2021, a compound +25.1%/yr. Reported net income was $5.8B in FY2025, compounding +15.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $66.7B · P/E ratio 10.0 · P/S ratio 1.97 · EPS (TTM) $1.87 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 19.8% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −30%, NWG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.42Fair Value $13.00Bull $19.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.12 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+56.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+55.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 26%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1073 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)37% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)50% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.57× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.11× · Pricier than median
P/FCF11.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG2.53× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)38· sector 44
PAST (return on equity)56· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)30· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)35· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Natwest Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NWG
Frequently asked questions
Is Natwest Group PLC (NWG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.00 versus a price of $18.67, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NWG?
Our model-based fair value for Natwest Group PLC is $13.00 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.67.
What is the quality score of NWG?
Natwest Group PLC has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.00 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.42, optimistic scenario $19.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Natwest Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.00, about −30% upside versus a price of $18.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.42, optimistic scenario $19.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
Natwest Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Natwest Group PLC pay a dividend?
Natwest Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.74% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Natwest Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.6 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NWG use?
Our models discount Natwest Group PLC at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Natwest Group PLC that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Natwest Group PLC (NWG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Natwest Group PLC grew +17.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Natwest Group PLC (NWG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Natwest Group PLC (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.27 %: that much free cash flow Natwest Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Natwest Group PLC it is $13.00 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $18.67. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Natwest Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, NWG trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.67, fair value $13.00, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NWG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.00). For Natwest Group PLC the two are $5.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Natwest Group PLC worth?
The market values Natwest Group PLC at about $66.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $18.67; our models calculate a fair value of $13.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NWG?
Our models span a range for Natwest Group PLC: cautious scenario $10.42, base $13.00, optimistic $19.67 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $18.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NWG?
Natwest Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 1.6, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
What is the PEG ratio of NWG?
The PEG ratio of Natwest Group PLC is 2.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Natwest Group PLC (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 14.1%, debt of 1.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NWG from its 52-week high?
Natwest Group PLC trades at $18.67, about 1% below its 52-week high of $18.56 and 54% above the low of $12.16 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Natwest Group PLC?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Natwest Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $18.67, calculated fair value $13.00 (−30%), Quality Score 64/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NWG calculated?
We run Natwest Group PLC through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Natwest Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $18.67. Our model-based fair value is $13.00, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Natwest Group PLC right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($10.42 to $19.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Natwest Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
The market capitalisation of Natwest Group PLC is $66.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Natwest Group PLC is 1.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
Earnings per share at Natwest Group PLC are $1.87 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
The dividend yield of Natwest Group PLC is 1.7% (payout 17.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
The net margin of Natwest Group PLC is 19.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Natwest Group PLC is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Natwest Group PLC is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
The operating margin of Natwest Group PLC is 50.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
Revenue at Natwest Group PLC is growing +7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
Earnings per share at Natwest Group PLC are growing +15.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Natwest Group PLC (NWG) hold?
Natwest Group PLC holds more cash than debt, $13.5B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 17, 2026