Newag S.A. (NWG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Newag S.A. stock PLN 191, price PLN 92.60, upside +106.0%, quality 83 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 11.85 PLN – 124.00 PLN · fair‑value band 123.30 PLN – 288.03 PLN · the 92.60 PLN price screens below the 190.76 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Newag S.A. engages in the production and sale of railway locomotives and rolling stocks in Poland. The company offers electric and diesel multiple units, electric and diesel locomotives, and dual-drive multiple units; and electric, diesel, and dual-drive traction units.
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It is also involved in the real estate rental and management activities; leasing of rolling stock and controlling; financing activities; repair and maintenance of machinery and other transport equipment; mechanical processing of metal elements; and provision of rolling stock and control systems repair and modernization services.
The company was founded in 1876 and is based in Nowy Sacz, Poland.
Stock analysis
Newag S.A. (NWG) currently trades at 92.60 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 190.76 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 51% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 221.56 PLN per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the 92.60 PLN price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 23.15 PLN, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 123.30 PLN (bear) to 288.03 PLN (bull), the price of 92.60 PLN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Newag S.A. reported revenue of 2.4B PLN in FY2025 versus 918M PLN in FY2021, a compound +27.0%/yr. Reported net income was 356M PLN in FY2025, compounding +49.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.2B PLN (≈ $1.1B) Small · P/E ratio 9.6 · P/S ratio 1.55 · EPS (TTM) 9.61 PLN · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 16.1% · Return on equity 40.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 78 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 106%, NWG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear123.30 PLNFair Value 190.76 PLNBull288.03 PLN
Price 92.60 PLN · Upside +106.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (5.61 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.97/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+50.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.7% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+22.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.31.8% vs 18.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 20%
2025 sits 274% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.3% a year for the price.
AI conclusion: Newag stands out with a firmly contracted order book through 2029 and fully utilized capacity amid robust demand for locomotives and trainsets, yet its main weakness remains the negative operating cash flow caused by rising working capital.
Main risk: Continued scaling to fulfill long-term contracts risks sustained negative operating cash flow, hitting liquidity and free cash flow generation.
Newag's order book stands out with deliveries firmly contracted through 2029 and production capacity already fully utilized. Strong first-half profits reflect robust demand across locomotives and trainsets, yet operating cash flow turned negative as working capital builds to fulfill those contracts. Will the backlog translate into expanding free cash flow, or will scaling continue to consume liquidity?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score83 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+106.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)40.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets16.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)23.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)54.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Newag S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NWG
Frequently asked questions
Is Newag S.A. (NWG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 190.76 PLN versus a price of 92.60 PLN, about +106% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NWG?
Our model-based fair value for Newag S.A. is 190.76 PLN (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 92.60 PLN.
What is the quality score of NWG?
Newag S.A. has a Quality Score of 83/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Newag S.A. (NWG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 190.76 PLN (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 123.30 PLN, optimistic scenario 288.03 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Newag S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 190.76 PLN, about +106% upside versus a price of 92.60 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 123.30 PLN, optimistic scenario 288.03 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
Newag S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.7B PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Newag S.A. pay a dividend?
Newag S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.24% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Newag S.A. (NWG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Newag S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -1.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.6 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NWG use?
Our models discount Newag S.A. at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.97, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Newag S.A. that is -1.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Newag S.A. (NWG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Newag S.A. grew +12.6 % a year. The price currently implies -1.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Newag S.A. (NWG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Newag S.A. (-1.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.24 %: that much free cash flow Newag S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Newag S.A. it is 190.76 PLN per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of 92.60 PLN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Newag S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, NWG trades below its calculated fair value: price 92.60 PLN, fair value 190.76 PLN, a gap of about +106% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NWG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (92.60 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (190.76 PLN). For Newag S.A. the two are 98.16 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Newag S.A. worth?
The market values Newag S.A. at about 4.2B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is 92.60 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 190.76 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NWG?
Our models span a range for Newag S.A.: cautious scenario 123.30 PLN, base 190.76 PLN, optimistic 288.03 PLN per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price 92.60 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NWG?
Newag S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 190.76 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Newag S.A. (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 40.5%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 83/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NWG from its 52-week high?
Newag S.A. trades at 92.60 PLN, about 25% below its 52-week high of 124.00 PLN and 9% above the low of 84.90 PLN (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 190.76 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Newag S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Newag S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price 92.60 PLN, calculated fair value 190.76 PLN (+106%), Quality Score 83/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NWG calculated?
We run Newag S.A. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 190.76 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Newag S.A. currently trades 51% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 92.60 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 190.76 PLN, about +106% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Newag S.A. right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (83/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (123.30 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (123.30 PLN to 288.03 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Newag S.A. (NWG) come from?
Earnings per share at Newag S.A. grew +15.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.5 %, EBIT margin +5.9 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Newag S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
The market capitalisation of Newag S.A. is 4.2B PLN (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Newag S.A. is 1.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
Earnings per share at Newag S.A. are 9.61 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
The dividend yield of Newag S.A. is 3.2% (payout 31.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
The net margin of Newag S.A. is 16.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Newag S.A. is 40.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Newag S.A. is 10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Newag S.A. (NWG)?
The operating margin of Newag S.A. is 23.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Newag S.A. (NWG)?
Revenue at Newag S.A. is growing +54.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Newag S.A. (NWG)?
Earnings per share at Newag S.A. are growing +91.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Newag S.A. (NWG) hold?
Newag S.A. holds more cash than debt, 420M PLN net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026