Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Obic Co., Ltd. stock $20.10, price $18.87, upside +6.5%, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
15‑month range $11.26 – $18.87 · fair‑value band $11.96 – $26.00 · the $18.87 price screens below the $20.10 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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OBIC Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides system integration, system support, office automation, and package software services in Japan.
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The company offers OBIC7 series ERP software which provide integrated administrative systems comprising personnel, payroll, working condition management, marketing, and production systems; and industry-specific application solutions that offers solutions tailored to the specific features of each business.
It also provides system operation support and maintenance, and hardware maintenance; sells package software, and peripheral equipment and supplies; and engages in processing of printed materials. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY) currently trades at $18.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.10, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $15.31 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $18.87 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.47, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.96 (bear) to $26.00 (bull), the price of $18.87 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Obic Co., Ltd. ADR reported revenue of ¥135B in FY2026 versus ¥89.5B in FY2022, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥75.2B in FY2026, compounding +14.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $15.7B Large · P/E ratio 32.5 · P/S ratio 18.1 · EPS (TTM) $0.5800 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 55.6% · Return on equity 16.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 7%, OBICY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.96Fair Value $20.10Bull$26.00
Price $18.87 · Upside +6.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3273 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.61% → 66%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.9% a year for the price and +7.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Obic's recurring ERP support contracts deliver exceptional margins and cash flow stability, yet this model risks fostering caution on new product development and cloud transitions.
Main risk: Reliance on existing support contracts may encourage caution on new product development and cloud transitions, limiting future revenue expansion in the ERP market.
Obic earns more than half its revenue from recurring system support and maintenance contracts on its ERP suite. This delivers exceptional margins and cash flow stability in the software business. The tension lies in whether these steady contracts anchor long-term growth or instead encourage caution on new product development and cloud transitions. Will the support base fund faster innovation or simply reinforce the existing model?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 647 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+6.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)56.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)67.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
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Is Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.10 versus a price of $18.87, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of OBICY?
Our model-based fair value for Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is $20.10 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.87.
What is the quality score of OBICY?
Obic Co., Ltd. ADR has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.10 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.96, optimistic scenario $26.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Obic Co., Ltd. ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.10, about +7% upside versus a price of $18.87 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $11.96, optimistic scenario $26.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
Obic Co., Ltd. ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥139B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Obic Co., Ltd. ADR pay a dividend?
Obic Co., Ltd. ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 1.44% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Obic Co., Ltd. ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +0.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +10.9 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OBICY use?
Our models discount Obic Co., Ltd. ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Obic Co., Ltd. ADR that is +0.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Obic Co., Ltd. ADR grew +10.9 % a year. The price currently implies +0.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Obic Co., Ltd. ADR (+0.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.57 %: that much free cash flow Obic Co., Ltd. ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Obic Co., Ltd. ADR it is $20.10 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $18.87. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Obic Co., Ltd. ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, OBICY trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.87, fair value $20.10, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OBICY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.10). For Obic Co., Ltd. ADR the two are $1.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Obic Co., Ltd. ADR worth?
The market values Obic Co., Ltd. ADR at about $15.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $18.87; our models calculate a fair value of $20.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OBICY?
Our models span a range for Obic Co., Ltd. ADR: cautious scenario $11.96, base $20.10, optimistic $26.00 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $18.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OBICY?
Obic Co., Ltd. ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.5 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.4, P/B 4.8, P/S 17.7, EV/EBITDA 23.6.
What is the PEG ratio of OBICY?
The PEG ratio of Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is 3.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Obic Co., Ltd. ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 16.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OBICY from its 52-week high?
Obic Co., Ltd. ADR trades at $18.87, at its 52-week high of $18.87 and 68% above the low of $11.26 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Obic Co., Ltd. ADR?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Salesforce, Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Obic Co., Ltd. ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $18.87, calculated fair value $20.10 (+7%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OBICY calculated?
We run Obic Co., Ltd. ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Obic Co., Ltd. ADR currently trades 6 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $18.87. Our model-based fair value is $20.10, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Obic Co., Ltd. ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($11.96 to $26.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Obic Co., Ltd. ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
The market capitalisation of Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is $15.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is 18.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
Earnings per share at Obic Co., Ltd. ADR are $0.5800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
The dividend yield of Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is 1.4% (payout 46.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
The net margin of Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is 55.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is 15.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
The operating margin of Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is 67.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
Revenue at Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Obic Co., Ltd. (OBICY)?
Earnings per share at Obic Co., Ltd. ADR are growing +19.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026