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Data-driven stock valuation

Obic Co., Ltd. ADR (OBICY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Technology · US · Market cap $10.3B

At a glance

OC Obic Co., Ltd. ADR logo Obic Co., Ltd. ADR OBICY · US
Price$16.16
Fair Value$13.16
Upside−18.6%
Quality73/100

A solid business, but trading 23% above our fair value of $13.16.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is $13.16 per share against a price of $16.16, so the fair value sits 19% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +10.7 %/yr)
Highly profitable · 55.6% net margin
generates free cash flow
·0.98% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Wide moat 82/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 9 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 20 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $8.29 to $17.06

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $12.75 to $13.16 (+3.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +16.2% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • A fairly wide model range ($8.29 to $17.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (13 months)

$18.26 $11.26 Fair Value $13.16 Aug 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

13‑month range $11.26 – $18.26 · fair‑value band $8.29 – $17.06 · the $16.16 price screens above the $13.16 fair value. As of Sep 8, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Obic Co., Ltd. ADR (OBICY) currently trades at $16.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.16, implying the stock looks roughly 22.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $12.08 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the $16.16 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.26, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Obic Co., Ltd. ADR generated revenue of ¥135B at a net margin of 55.6%. Revenue grew 11.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.8%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 30.5. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $8.29 (bear) to $17.06 (bull), the price of $16.16 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −19%, OBICY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $7.32 $11.35 $17.98 74
Growth DCF $7.34 $11.19 $17.45 71
Owner Earnings $7.75 $12.08 $19.20 69
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $7.32 $11.35 $17.98 74
Owner Earnings $7.75 $12.08 $19.20 69
5Y Revenue Exit $5.62 $8.02 $11.14 67
5Y EBITDA Exit $8.64 $14.00 $20.54 69
5Y P/E Exit $9.88 $16.45 $23.74 65
10Y Revenue Exit $6.05 $8.47 $11.88 62
10Y EBITDA Exit $8.13 $12.75 $19.45 62
10Y P/E Exit $8.94 $14.51 $22.03 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $3.42 $13.64 $18.53 61
Lynch FV $3.39 $4.84 $6.29 58
PEG = 1.0 $3.39 $4.84 $6.29 55
EPV $6.14 $6.91 $7.58 68
Multiples
P/E Multiple $10.56 $14.08 $17.60 63
P/S Multiple $3.89 $5.19 $6.48 58
P/B Multiple $6.41 $8.55 $10.68 55
EV/EBIT $12.53 $16.19 $19.85 63
EV/EBITDA $10.07 $12.91 $15.75 64
EV/Revenue $4.86 $6.27 $7.69 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.69 $2.26 $3.38 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $7.34 $11.19 $17.45 71
Rev-Margin DCF $5.62 $8.03 $10.93 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3.37 $4.42 $12.00 59
ROIC Compounder $6.64 $8.16 $10.02 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $7.14 $10.20 $13.26 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($12.08) versus Asset-Based ($2.26). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 30.5
P/S ratio 16.3 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.5300 price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.5
Dividend yield 1.0% payout 29.9%
Net margin 53.3% FY2025
Return on equity 15.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 16.2% avg 4y
Operating margin 67.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥135B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.4% 3y avg +10.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +20.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ¥60.7B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 73/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 55
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 93
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 51
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 45
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

OBIC Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides system integration, system support, office automation, and package software services in Japan.

Full company description

OBIC Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides system integration, system support, office automation, and package software services in Japan. The company offers OBIC7 series ERP software which provide integrated administrative systems comprising personnel, payroll, working condition management, marketing, and production systems; and industry-specific application solutions that offers solutions tailored to the specific features of each business. It also provides system operation support and maintenance, and hardware maintenance; sells package software, and peripheral equipment and supplies; and engages in processing of printed materials. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Obic Co., Ltd. ADR reported revenue of ¥121B in FY2025 versus ¥89.5B in FY2022, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥64.6B in FY2025, compounding +14.1%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$121B
Latest YoY
+8.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.7%
Value creation/yr (3Y, in JPY) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+11.6%
Dividend yield1.0%
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.60.5% (2022) → 64.6% (2025) · rising
Revenue +10.7%/yr
FY22 ¥89.5B
FY23 ¥100B
FY24 ¥112B
FY25 ¥121B
Net income +14.1%/yr
FY22 ¥43.5B
FY23 ¥50.1B
FY24 ¥58.0B
FY25 ¥64.6B

OBICY screens 23% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Obic Co., Ltd. ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OBICY

Peer Group

Software - Application · 696 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −21% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 56% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 68% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.0% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 30.5× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 2.77× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Obic Co., Ltd. ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+0.3 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 3 years+10.7 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+8.2 %
FCF yield on price5.56 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.1 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE9 · sector 0
FUTURE57 · sector 37
PAST63 · sector 12
HEALTH0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND20 · sector 29

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €185.68 €169.59 −9%
Shopify Inc SHOP C$209.78 C$28.76 −86%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $78.82 $43.66 −45%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $259.23 $249.28 −4%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $141.26 $43.73 −69%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $292.70 $112.57 −62%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $337.18 $42.27 −87%
Adobe Inc ADBE $266.51 $454.04 +70%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $277.62 $177.51 −36%
Intuit Inc INTU $332.70 $363.46 +9%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Obic Co., Ltd. ADR (OBICY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.16 versus a price of $16.16, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OBICY?
Our model-based fair value for Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is $13.16 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.16.
What is the quality score of OBICY?
Obic Co., Ltd. ADR has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Obic Co., Ltd. ADR (OBICY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.16 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.29, optimistic scenario $17.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Obic Co., Ltd. ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.16, about −19% upside versus a price of $16.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.29, optimistic scenario $17.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Obic Co., Ltd. ADR (OBICY)?
Obic Co., Ltd. ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥135B (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of OBICY?
The net profit margin of Obic Co., Ltd. ADR is about 55.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 55.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Obic Co., Ltd. ADR pay a dividend?
Obic Co., Ltd. ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Obic Co., Ltd. ADR (OBICY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Obic Co., Ltd. ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +0.3 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.1 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OBICY use?
Our models discount Obic Co., Ltd. ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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