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Orion S.A (OEC) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $420M

OS Orion S.A logo Orion S.A OEC · US
Price$7.24
Fair Value$11.58
Upside+60.0%
Quality40/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -5.0% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
1.11% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/14)
Narrow moat 26/100
Evidence: High Range $3.40 – $19.77 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $9.68 to $11.58 (+19.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +31.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($3.40 to $19.77). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$27.74 $4.30 Fair Value $11.58 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.30 – $27.74 · fair‑value band $3.40 – $19.77 · the $7.24 price screens below the $11.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Orion S.A (OEC) currently trades at $7.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.58, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Orion S.A generated revenue of $1.8B at a net margin of -5.0%. Revenue declined 3.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -21.1%. Net debt stands at $919M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $3.40 (bear case) to $19.77 (bull case); at $7.24, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at 60%, OEC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $1.88 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.8600 $7.30 $15.23 74
ROIC Compounder $0.7800 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $2.21 38
5Y Revenue Exit $0.8600 $7.11 $16.39 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $7.42 $18.33 $33.02 41
10Y Revenue Exit $3.02 $8.11 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $2.53 $9.59 $17.51 37
Earnings-Based
EPV $0.7800 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.6500 $0.7200 $0.8100 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.6500 $0.8000 $0.9700 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT $8.03 $14.34 $20.65 53
EV/EBITDA $20.17 $30.52 $40.88 54
EV/Revenue $5.51 $12.54 $19.56 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.41 $4.57 $6.82 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.88 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.8600 $7.30 $15.23 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $0.7800 72

Widest divergence: Multiples ($14.34) versus Dividend Discount ($0.7200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $1.8B
Revenue growth (YoY) -3.8%
Net margin -5.0%
Return on equity -21.1%
Free cash flow $50.2M FY2025
Operating margin 2.5%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-1.58
Dividend yield 1.1%
EPS growth (YoY) -54.3%
Net debt $919M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 12
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 14
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 32
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Orion S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of carbon black products. The company operates in two segments, Specialty Carbon Black and Rubber Carbon Black.

Full company description

Orion S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of carbon black products. The company operates in two segments, Specialty Carbon Black and Rubber Carbon Black. It offers post-treated specialty carbon black grades for coatings and printing applications, as well as high purity carbon black grades for the fiber industry; and conductive carbon black grades for batteries, polymers, and coatings. The company also provides rubber carbon black products for tires, such as high-reinforcing grades and semi-reinforcing grades under the ECORAX brand, as well as for mechanical rubber goods end users, including automotive production, construction, as well as certain food, consumer, and medical applications. It operates in the United States, Brazil, rest of the Americas, Germany, South Africa, Italy, Spain, Czech republic, Poland, Italy, Turkey, France, Rest of EMEA, China, the Republic of Korea, and rest of Asia. The company was formerly known as Orion Engineered Carbons S.A. and changed its name to Orion S.A. in June 2023. Orion S.A. was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Senningerberg, Luxembourg.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Orion S.A reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$70.1M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 46/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.8B
Latest YoY
−3.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.7%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.2%
Revenue +4.0%/yr
FY21 $1.5B
FY22 $2.0B
FY23 $1.9B
FY24 $1.9B
FY25 $1.8B
Net income
FY21 $135M
FY22 $106M
FY23 $104M
FY24 $44.2M
FY25 −$70.1M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025) +5.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.6 pp

of which total revenue +6.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.2 pp

EBIT margin −3.9 pp
Tax rate +0.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orion S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OEC

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 673 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Revenue growth -4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.1% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.75× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.09× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.24× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 8.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.25× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 19
PAST 0 · sector 23
HEALTH 12 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 22 · sector 25

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

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Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,689 ₹668.81 -75%
Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS ₹18,236 ₹2,793 -85%
Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND ₹1,560 ₹351.84 -77%
PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA 1,805 IDR 2,888 IDR +60%
Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA ₹7,115 ₹757.93 -89%
Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT ₹493.70 ₹164.29 -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Orion S.A (OEC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.58 versus a price of $7.24, about +60% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OEC?
Our model-based fair value for Orion S.A is $11.58 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $7.24.
What is the quality score of OEC?
Orion S.A has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Orion S.A (OEC)?
Orion S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.8B (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of OEC?
The net profit margin of Orion S.A is about -5.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Orion S.A pay a dividend?
Orion S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.11% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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