Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Olam Group (OLGPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Olam Group $1.93, price $0.82, upside +136.6%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · US · ISIN SGXE65760014

Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Olam Group

OLGPF · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $1.93 · Strongly undervalued (+136.6%)

!Quality 47/100

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.3 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 1.5% net margin (TTM)

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

✓2.5% dividend yield · Well covered

!Narrow moat 23/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear $1.45 to bull $2.41 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 47/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.4605 – $1.21 · fair‑value band $1.45 – $2.41 · the $0.8158 price screens below the $1.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

Olam Group Limited engages in sourcing, processing, packaging, and merchandising of agricultural products worldwide. It operates through Olam Food Ingredients, Olam Global Agri, and Remaining Olam Group segments. The company offers cocoa, coffee, dairy, nuts, and spices; and grains and oilseeds, feed and proteins, edible oils, rice, specialty grains and seeds, cotton, rubber, animal feed and protein, poultry breeding, wood products, and commodity financial services, as well as food, feed, and fibers. It also provides bakery, beverages, chocolate and confectionery, dairy and desserts, savoury and culinary, and snacking products. It operates in Asia, the Middle East, Australia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Singapore.

Stock analysis

Olam Group (OLGPF) currently trades at $0.8158, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.93, implying the stock looks roughly 57.7% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $4.84 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the $0.8158 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.5900, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $1.45 (bear) to $2.41 (bull), the price of $0.8158 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Olam Group reported revenue of 29.6B SGD in FY2025 versus 47.0B SGD in FY2021, a compound −10.9%/yr. Reported net income was 444M SGD in FY2025, compounding −10.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.8B · P/E ratio 26.7 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 137%, OLGPF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.45 Fair Value $1.93 Bull $2.41

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0076 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $2.54 $4.84 $8.50 77

Growth DCF $2.54 $4.70 $8.04 76

Residual Income $1.06 $1.11 $1.21 76

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $2.54 $4.84 $8.50 77

Owner Earnings $2.41 $4.63 $8.16 73

5Y Revenue Exit $4.38 $8.61 $14.30 70

5Y EBITDA Exit $6.12 $12.06 $19.39 73

5Y P/E Exit $1.14 $2.18 $3.29 69

10Y Revenue Exit $3.48 $7.19 $12.72 64

10Y EBITDA Exit $4.79 $9.60 $16.73 65

10Y P/E Exit $1.61 $2.67 $4.03 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $0.6300 $2.53 $3.44 64

Lynch FV $0.6300 $0.9000 $1.17 61

PEG = 1.0 $0.6300 $0.9000 $1.17 57

EPV $6.36 $7.51 $8.50 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $0.3400 $0.6900 $1.04 67

DDM Multi-Stage $0.3400 $0.5900 $0.7200 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $1.45 $1.93 $2.42 63

P/S Multiple $1.17 $1.56 $1.96 58

P/B Multiple $1.17 $1.56 $1.96 55

EV/EBIT $10.42 $14.20 $17.97 66

EV/EBITDA $8.91 $12.18 $15.45 67

EV/Revenue $5.53 $8.29 $11.05 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $0.6600 $0.8900 $1.33 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $2.54 $4.70 $8.04 76

Rev-Margin DCF $4.38 $8.49 $13.56 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income $1.06 $1.11 $1.21 76

ROIC Compounder $7.03 $9.12 $11.54 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $1.10 $1.57 $2.05 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 32

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 52

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 37

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 14

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 88

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 68

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 53

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 41

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 83

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 79/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+6.2%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+11.3%

Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+15.7%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.

−9.8%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−12.3%

Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.2% vs 0.6%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 15%

2025 sits 60% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+20.5%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect

n/a

No analyst forecast available.

After inflation (figures in SGD, Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.1% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food Distribution · 81 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 47 · Below median

Fair Value upside +139.0% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 0.8% · Bottom 25%

Return on assets 1.2% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) 1.5% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 2.3% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 12.1% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Below median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 1.03× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.7× · Pricier than median

P/B 0.60× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.13× · Cheapest 25%

P/FCF 10.0× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 6.0× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Sysco Corporation SYY	$78.57	$70.95	−10%
US Foods Holding USFD	$93.33	$60.25	−35%
Performance Food Group PFGC	$91.55	$47.10	−49%
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT	€17.62	€21.59	+23%
CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT	14.50 THB	12.98 THB	−10%
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF	$110.27	$41.87	−62%
United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI	$44.79	$34.58	−23%
The Andersons, Inc ANDE	$65.70	$32.38	−51%
Metcash Limited MTS	A$2.86	A$5.33	+86%
Dong Suh Companies Inc 026960	25,350 KRW	9,979 KRW	−61%

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Olam Group · Fair Value
$1.93 +58%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OLGPF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Olam Group · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$1.93</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+58%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Olam Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OLGPF

Frequently asked questions

Is Olam Group (OLGPF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.93 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.8158, about +137% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of OLGPF?

Our model-based fair value for Olam Group is $1.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.8158.

What is the quality score of OLGPF?

Olam Group has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Olam Group (OLGPF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.45, optimistic scenario $2.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Olam Group stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $1.93, about +137% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.8158 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.45, optimistic scenario $2.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

Olam Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 29.7B SGD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

Does Olam Group pay a dividend?

Olam Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).

What growth is priced into Olam Group (OLGPF)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Olam Group would have to grow free cash flow by +20.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OLGPF use?

Our models discount Olam Group at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Olam Group that is +20.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Olam Group (OLGPF) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Olam Group grew -3.8 % a year. The price currently implies +20.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Olam Group (OLGPF) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Olam Group (+20.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.58 %: that much free cash flow Olam Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Olam Group it is $1.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.8158. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Olam Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, OLGPF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.8158, fair value $1.93, a gap of about +137% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of OLGPF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.8158); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.93). For Olam Group the two are $1.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Olam Group worth?

The market values Olam Group at about $3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.8158; our models calculate a fair value of $1.93 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OLGPF?

Our models span a range for Olam Group: cautious scenario $1.45, base $1.93, optimistic $2.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.8158). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of OLGPF?

Olam Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 6.0.

How solid is the balance sheet of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

Balance-sheet figures for Olam Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.8%, debt of 1.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is OLGPF from its 52-week high?

Olam Group trades at $0.8158, about 21% below its 52-week high of $1.04 and 25% above the low of $0.6529 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.93 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Olam Group?

From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Performance Food Group, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Olam Group stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.8158, calculated fair value $1.93 (+137%), Quality Score 47/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of OLGPF calculated?

We run Olam Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Olam Group currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.8158. Our model-based fair value is $1.93, about +137% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Olam Group right now?

The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.45). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Where does the earnings growth of Olam Group (OLGPF) come from?

Earnings per share at Olam Group grew −2.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.1 %, EBIT margin +6.6 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −13.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Olam Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

The market capitalisation of Olam Group is $3.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Olam Group is 0.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

Earnings per share at Olam Group are $0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

The dividend yield of Olam Group is 2.5% (payout 66.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

The net margin of Olam Group is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Olam Group is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Olam Group is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Olam Group (OLGPF)?

The operating margin of Olam Group is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Olam Group (OLGPF)?

Revenue at Olam Group is growing +12.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Olam Group (OLGPF)?

Earnings per share at Olam Group are growing +374% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Olam Group (OLGPF) carry?

The net debt of Olam Group is 13.8B SGD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 36.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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