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Olin Corporation (OLN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Olin Corporation $28.51, price $16.77, upside +70.0%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · US · ISIN US6806652052

OC Olin Corporation logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Olin Corporation

OLN · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $28.51 · Strongly undervalued (+70%)
!Quality 45/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +3.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·4.77% dividend yield
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Insider activity 35/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $13.24 to $47.70
!Weak on balance sheet: 26 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$61.20 $16.54 Fair Value $28.51 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $16.54 – $61.20 · fair‑value band $13.24 – $47.70 · the $16.77 price screens below the $28.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Olin Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products in the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and India Middle East, Africa, India, Latin America, and Canada. It operates through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls; Epoxy; and Winchester.

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Olin Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products in the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and India Middle East, Africa, India, Latin America, and Canada. It operates through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls; Epoxy; and Winchester. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment offers chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomers, methyl chloride, methylene chloride, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, perchloroethylene, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen, bleach products, potassium hydroxide, and chlorinated organics intermediates and solvents. The Epoxy segment provides Allylics, such as allyl chloride, epichlorohydrin, and glycerin; aromatics, including acetone, and phenol; bisphenol, caustic soda, cumene, liquid and solid epoxy resins; and converted epoxy resins and additives. The Winchester segment offers sporting ammunition products, including shotshells, small caliber centerfire, and rimfire ammunition products for hunters, competitive, and recreational shooters, and law enforcement agencies; small caliber military ammunition products for use in infantry and mounted weapons; and industrial products comprising 8-gauge loads and powder-actuated tool loads for maintenance applications in power and concrete industries, and powder-actuated tools in construction industry. The company markets its products through its sales force, as well as directly to various industrial customers, mass merchants, retailers, wholesalers, gun clubs, other distributors, and the U.S. Government and its prime contractors. Olin Corporation was incorporated in 1892 and is based in Clayton, Missouri.

Stock analysis

Olin Corporation (OLN) currently trades at $16.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.51, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $33.05 per share, and 6 of the 12 models we run sit above the $16.77 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $3.38, and 6 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $13.24 (bear) to $47.70 (bull), the price of $16.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Olin Corporation reported revenue of $6.8B in FY2025 versus $8.9B in FY2021, a compound −6.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$42.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.4B · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) $−1.62 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin −0.6% · Return on equity −9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0% · Operating margin −4.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 70%, OLN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $13.24 Fair Value $28.51 Bull $47.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $15.87 $35.53 $63.95 74
Growth DCF $16.50 $33.93 $57.67 73
Owner Earnings $16.30 $36.17 $64.91 70
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $15.87 $35.53 $63.95 74
Owner Earnings $16.30 $36.17 $64.91 70
5Y Revenue Exit n/a $2.75 $10.08 67
5Y EBITDA Exit $14.56 $36.22 $61.09 69
10Y Revenue Exit $3.19 $10.45 $19.11 60
10Y EBITDA Exit $14.67 $33.05 $56.85 63
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $7.06 $14.06 $21.30 64
DDM Multi-Stage $7.06 $11.24 $14.85 64
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $18.58 $32.50 $46.42 65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.32 $11.15 $16.64 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $16.50 $33.93 $57.67 73
Rev-Margin DCF n/a $3.38 $11.45 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 29
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 37/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−13.0% (2020) → 1.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.2% a year for the price and +1.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.2%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 350 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside +70% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.48× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.24× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.35× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 9.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 9.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 7.05× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 24
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)26 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)95 · sector 31

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BASF SE BAS €51.79 €23.76 −54%
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation 2010 47.90 SAR 24.66 SAR −49%
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 ¥23.21 ¥40.44 +74%
Dow Inc DOW $28.20 $21.03 −25%
Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 ¥34.61 ¥19.88 −43%
Rongsheng Petrochemical Co 002493 ¥13.13 ¥2.90 −78%
Zangge Mining Company 000408 ¥73.50 ¥80.85 +10%
Ganfeng Lithium Group 002460 ¥46.39 ¥16.17 −65%
PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT 1,620 IDR 1,581 IDR −2%
Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 ¥16.54 ¥43.28 +162%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Olin Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OLN

Frequently asked questions

Is Olin Corporation (OLN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.51 versus a price of $16.77, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OLN?
Our model-based fair value for Olin Corporation is $28.51 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.77.
What is the quality score of OLN?
Olin Corporation has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Olin Corporation (OLN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.51 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.24, optimistic scenario $47.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Olin Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.51, about +70% upside versus a price of $16.77 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $13.24, optimistic scenario $47.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
Olin Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Olin Corporation pay a dividend?
Olin Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Olin Corporation (OLN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Olin Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +9.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OLN use?
Our models discount Olin Corporation at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Olin Corporation that is +9.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Olin Corporation (OLN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Olin Corporation grew +3.3 % a year. The price currently implies +9.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Olin Corporation (OLN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Olin Corporation (+9.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.90 %: that much free cash flow Olin Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Olin Corporation it is $28.51 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $16.77. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Olin Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OLN trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.77, fair value $28.51, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OLN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.51). For Olin Corporation the two are $11.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Olin Corporation worth?
The market values Olin Corporation at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $16.77; our models calculate a fair value of $28.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OLN?
Our models span a range for Olin Corporation: cautious scenario $13.24, base $28.51, optimistic $47.70 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $16.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of OLN?
The PEG ratio of Olin Corporation is 7.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Olin Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −9.8%, debt of 1.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OLN from its 52-week high?
Olin Corporation trades at $16.77, about 44% below its 52-week high of $29.93 and 1% above the low of $16.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Olin Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Olin Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $16.77, calculated fair value $28.51 (+70%), Quality Score 45/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OLN calculated?
We run Olin Corporation through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Olin Corporation currently trades 70 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $16.77. Our model-based fair value is $28.51, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Olin Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($13.24 to $47.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Olin Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
The market capitalisation of Olin Corporation is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Olin Corporation is 0.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
Earnings per share at Olin Corporation are $−1.62. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
The dividend yield of Olin Corporation is 4.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
The net margin of Olin Corporation is −0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Olin Corporation is −9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Olin Corporation is 10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Olin Corporation (OLN)?
The operating margin of Olin Corporation is −4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Olin Corporation (OLN)?
Revenue at Olin Corporation is growing −3.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Olin Corporation (OLN)?
Earnings per share at Olin Corporation are growing −97.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Olin Corporation (OLN) carry?
The net debt of Olin Corporation is $3.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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