OneWater Marine Inc (ONEW) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $188M
OneWater Marine Inc
ONEW · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from $12.38 to $7.60 (−38.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +12.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 37% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($7.60 to $23.23). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.35 – $60.97 · fair‑value band $7.60 – $23.23 · the $12.04 price screens above the $7.60 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
OneWater Marine Inc (ONEW) currently trades at $12.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.60, implying the stock looks roughly 36.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, OneWater Marine Inc generated revenue of $1.8B at a net margin of -6.7%. Revenue declined 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -37.7%. Net debt stands at $912M. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.60 (bear case) to $23.23 (bull case); at $12.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -37%, ONEW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($54.09) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
OneWater Marine Inc. operates as a recreational marine retailer in the United States. The company offers new and pre-owned recreational boats and yachts, as well as related marine products comprising parts and accessories.
Full company description
OneWater Marine Inc. operates as a recreational marine retailer in the United States. The company offers new and pre-owned recreational boats and yachts, as well as related marine products comprising parts and accessories. It also provides boat repair and maintenance services; and other ancillary services, including indoor and outdoor storage, and marina services. In addition, the company arranges related boat financing, insurance, and extended service contracts for customers with third-party lenders and insurance companies. Further, it is involved in the rental of boats and personal watercraft. OneWater Marine Inc. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Buford, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
OneWater Marine Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$115M in FY2025.
ONEW screens 37% overvalued. Compare with Casey's General Stores, Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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