Orad-M (ORAD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Orad-M ILS 2.72, price ILS 1.83, upside +48.8%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.3140 ILA – 2.02 ILA · fair‑value band 1.86 ILA – 3.67 ILA · the 1.83 ILA price screens below the 2.72 ILA fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Orad Ltd provides security and perimeter protection, safety and fire detection, infrastructures, electromechanical systems, automation, communications and control, and solar energy systems in Israel and internationally.
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Orad Ltd provides security and perimeter protection, safety and fire detection, infrastructures, electromechanical systems, automation, communications and control, and solar energy systems in Israel and internationally. It offers security solutions, such as access control and biometrics, closed circuit television (CCTV) and video analysis, command and control software, perimeter protection and fencing, perimeter security system VMD, radar and night vision, Drom " drone defense systems, cyber dome for cellphones, and electronic locking systems. The company also provides safety solutions, including wireless radio communication systems for firefighters in buildings, active aspirating smoke detector systems, advanced fiber optic fire detection systems, fire detection and extinguishing, and smoke management systems; integrative control solutions; solar energy solutions comprising ground solar systems, off-grid solar hybrid, and rooftop solar systems in net metering arrangement; and service and maintenance solutions. In addition, it undertakes projects, including planning, operation, heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning for building and hospital management systems. Orad Ltd was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Holon, Israel.
Stock analysis
Orad-M (ORAD) currently trades at 1.83 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.72 ILA, implying the stock looks roughly 32.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 3.59 ILA per share, and 18 of the 23 models we run sit above the 1.83 ILA price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.4700 ILA, and 5 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1.86 ILA (bear) to 3.67 ILA (bull), the price of 1.83 ILA sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Orad-M reported revenue of 203M ILA in FY2025 versus 159M ILA in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was 15.1M ILA in FY2025, compounding +31.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 171M ILA · P/E ratio 33.9 · P/S ratio 2.52 · EPS (TTM) 0.0540 ILA · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 19.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.1% · Operating margin 8.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 49%, ORAD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.86 ILAFair Value 2.72 ILABull 3.67 ILA
Price 1.83 ILA · Upside +48.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0411 ILS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +16.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.28.3% vs 3.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 131% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 350 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside+48.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orad-M Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORAD
Frequently asked questions
Is Orad-M (ORAD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.72 ILA versus a price of 1.83 ILA, about +49% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORAD?
Our model-based fair value for Orad-M is 2.72 ILA (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.83 ILA.
What is the quality score of ORAD?
Orad-M has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orad-M (ORAD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2.72 ILA (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.86 ILA, optimistic scenario 3.67 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orad-M stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2.72 ILA, about +49% upside versus a price of 1.83 ILA (undervalued). Cautious scenario 1.86 ILA, optimistic scenario 3.67 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orad-M (ORAD)?
Orad-M reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 214M ILS (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orad-M (ORAD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orad-M would have to grow free cash flow by +6.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.8 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORAD use?
Our models discount Orad-M at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orad-M that is +6.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orad-M (ORAD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orad-M grew +6.8 % a year. The price currently implies +6.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orad-M (ORAD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orad-M (+6.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orad-M (ORAD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.96 %: that much free cash flow Orad-M produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orad-M (ORAD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orad-M it is 2.72 ILA per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of 1.83 ILA. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orad-M stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, ORAD trades below its calculated fair value: price 1.83 ILA, fair value 2.72 ILA, a gap of about +49% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORAD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.83 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.72 ILA). For Orad-M the two are 0.8920 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orad-M worth?
The market values Orad-M at about 171M ILA (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is 1.83 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 2.72 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORAD?
Our models span a range for Orad-M: cautious scenario 1.86 ILA, base 2.72 ILA, optimistic 3.67 ILA per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price 1.83 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORAD?
Orad-M trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.9 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2.72 ILA is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orad-M (ORAD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orad-M (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 19.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORAD from its 52-week high?
Orad-M trades at 1.83 ILA, about 9% below its 52-week high of 2.02 ILA and 68% above the low of 1.09 ILA (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2.72 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orad-M?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, CrowdStrike Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orad-M stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price 1.83 ILA, calculated fair value 2.72 ILA (+49%), Quality Score 65/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORAD calculated?
We run Orad-M through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2.72 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Orad-M currently trades 33 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orad-M (ORAD)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was 1.83 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 2.72 ILA, about +49% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orad-M right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (1.86 ILA to 3.67 ILA) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Orad-M (ORAD) come from?
Earnings per share at Orad-M grew +0.0 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −8.0 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate +5.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orad-M
How large is the market capitalisation of Orad-M (ORAD)?
The market capitalisation of Orad-M is 171M ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orad-M (ORAD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orad-M is 2.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orad-M (ORAD)?
Earnings per share at Orad-M are 0.0540 ILA (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orad-M (ORAD)?
The net margin of Orad-M is 7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orad-M (ORAD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orad-M is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orad-M (ORAD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orad-M is 9.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orad-M (ORAD)?
The operating margin of Orad-M is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orad-M (ORAD)?
Revenue at Orad-M is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orad-M (ORAD)?
Earnings per share at Orad-M are growing −42.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orad-M (ORAD) carry?
The net debt of Orad-M is 31.5M ILA (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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