Orbia Advance Corporation (ORBIA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · MX · Market cap 43.3B MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 5 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from 15.58 MXN to 15.54 MXN (−0.3%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +3.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (17.81 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 11.73 MXN – 48.20 MXN · fair‑value band 14.14 MXN – 17.81 MXN · the 22.47 MXN price screens above the 15.54 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Orbia Advance Corporation (ORBIA) currently trades at 22.47 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15.54 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 30.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Orbia Advance Corporation generated revenue of 7.8B MXN at a net margin of -5.7%. Revenue grew 8.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -12.0%. Net debt stands at 4.2B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 14.14 MXN (bear case) to 17.81 MXN (bull case); at 22.47 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -31%, ORBIA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 5 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (19.28 MXN) versus Asset-Based (13.85 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, provides polymer solutions in the United States, Northwest Europe, Southwest Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Brazil, Mexico, Central and Eastern Europe, Colombia, Central America, Peru, Southeast Europe, Canada, Ecuador, Israel, Argentina, Chile, and internationally.
Full company description
Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, provides polymer solutions in the United States, Northwest Europe, Southwest Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Brazil, Mexico, Central and Eastern Europe, Colombia, Central America, Peru, Southeast Europe, Canada, Ecuador, Israel, Argentina, Chile, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Polymer Solutions, Building and Infrastructure, Precision Agriculture, Connectivity Solutions, and Fluor and Energy Materials. The company offers derivatives comprising ethylene, salt, chlorine, caustic soda, methyl and ethyl chloride, hydrochloric acid, and sodium hypochlorite; general-purpose and specialty polyvinyl chloride resins; and plastic compounds. It also provides plastic piping systems and solutions; high-density polyethylene conduit, accessories, and other connectivity infrastructure products; digital education and fiber-optic network design services; sprinklers, micro-sprinklers, drippers, drip lines, greenhouse solutions, and advanced digital technology for agriculture and greenhouse components; and strategic system components, such as filters, valves, and air valves. In addition, the company offers fluorite; hydrofluoric acid and aluminum trifluoride; refrigerant and medical propellant gases, such as R-134a gas; and fluorinated additives and co-solvents, fluor silane and electrolyte additives, electrolyte salts, and binders for lithium-ion batteries. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Mexichem, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. in August 2019. Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Orbia Advance Corporation reported revenue of 7.6B MXN in FY2025 versus 8.8B MXN in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was −457M MXN in FY2025.
ORBIA screens 31% overvalued. Compare with CITIC Limited →
Peer Group
Conglomerates · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
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|---|---|---|---|
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| The Siam Cement Public Company SCC | 254.00 THB | 199.40 THB | -21% |
| SRF Limited SRF | ₹2,875 | ₹1,053 | -63% |
| Empresas Copec S.A COPEC | 6,330 CLP | 10,879 CLP | +72% |
| Posco International Corporation 047050 | 50,900 KRW | 61,248 KRW | +20% |
| Tube Investments of India Limited TIINDIA | ₹2,940 | ₹559.30 | -81% |
| Doosan Corporation 000155 | 464,000 KRW | 75,620 KRW | -84% |
| Thermax Limited THERMAX | ₹4,809 | ₹1,087 | -77% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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