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Orbia Advance Corporation (ORBIA) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · MX · Market cap 43.3B MXN

OA Orbia Advance Corporation ORBIA · MX
Price22.47 MXN
Fair Value15.54 MXN
Upside-30.8%
Quality44/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -5.7% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/13)
Narrow moat 21/100
Evidence: Medium Range 14.14 MXN – 17.81 MXN Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026

From 5 valuation models · updated 28 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from 15.58 MXN to 15.54 MXN (−0.3%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +3.8% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 31% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (17.81 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

48.20 MXN 11.73 MXN Fair Value 15.54 MXN Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 11.73 MXN – 48.20 MXN · fair‑value band 14.14 MXN – 17.81 MXN · the 22.47 MXN price screens above the 15.54 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Orbia Advance Corporation (ORBIA) currently trades at 22.47 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15.54 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 30.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Orbia Advance Corporation generated revenue of 7.8B MXN at a net margin of -5.7%. Revenue grew 8.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -12.0%. Net debt stands at 4.2B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 14.14 MXN (bear case) to 17.81 MXN (bull case); at 22.47 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -31%, ORBIA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 10.86 MXN 27.34 MXN 55.23 MXN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 2.43 MXN 19.28 MXN 39.88 MXN 74
Gordon GGM 14.23 MXN 15.54 MXN 17.60 MXN 70
All 5 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 14.23 MXN 15.54 MXN 17.60 MXN 70
DDM Multi-Stage 14.23 MXN 17.97 MXN 23.03 MXN 61
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 10.30 MXN 13.85 MXN 20.78 MXN 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 10.86 MXN 27.34 MXN 55.23 MXN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 2.43 MXN 19.28 MXN 39.88 MXN 74

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (19.28 MXN) versus Asset-Based (13.85 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 7.8B MXN
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.4%
Net margin -5.7%
Return on equity -12.0%
Free cash flow 455M MXN FY2025
Operating margin 4.8%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) -4.02 MXN
EPS growth (YoY) +25.0%
Net debt 4.2B MXN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 79
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 94
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, provides polymer solutions in the United States, Northwest Europe, Southwest Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Brazil, Mexico, Central and Eastern Europe, Colombia, Central America, Peru, Southeast Europe, Canada, Ecuador, Israel, Argentina, Chile, and internationally.

Full company description

Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, provides polymer solutions in the United States, Northwest Europe, Southwest Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Brazil, Mexico, Central and Eastern Europe, Colombia, Central America, Peru, Southeast Europe, Canada, Ecuador, Israel, Argentina, Chile, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Polymer Solutions, Building and Infrastructure, Precision Agriculture, Connectivity Solutions, and Fluor and Energy Materials. The company offers derivatives comprising ethylene, salt, chlorine, caustic soda, methyl and ethyl chloride, hydrochloric acid, and sodium hypochlorite; general-purpose and specialty polyvinyl chloride resins; and plastic compounds. It also provides plastic piping systems and solutions; high-density polyethylene conduit, accessories, and other connectivity infrastructure products; digital education and fiber-optic network design services; sprinklers, micro-sprinklers, drippers, drip lines, greenhouse solutions, and advanced digital technology for agriculture and greenhouse components; and strategic system components, such as filters, valves, and air valves. In addition, the company offers fluorite; hydrofluoric acid and aluminum trifluoride; refrigerant and medical propellant gases, such as R-134a gas; and fluorinated additives and co-solvents, fluor silane and electrolyte additives, electrolyte salts, and binders for lithium-ion batteries. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Mexichem, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. in August 2019. Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Orbia Advance Corporation reported revenue of 7.6B MXN in FY2025 versus 8.8B MXN in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was −457M MXN in FY2025.

Growth Quality 37/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
7.6B MXN
Latest YoY
+1.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.5%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Revenue −3.5%/yr
FY21 8.8B MXN
FY22 9.6B MXN
FY23 8.2B MXN
FY24 7.5B MXN
FY25 7.6B MXN
Net income
FY21 657M MXN
FY22 567M MXN
FY23 65.0M MXN
FY24 145M MXN
FY25 −457M MXN

ORBIA screens 31% overvalued. Compare with CITIC Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orbia Advance Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORBIA

Peer Group

Conglomerates · 369 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside −31% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) -6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Debt / equity 2.13× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.18× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.33× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.43× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 20
FUTURE 42 · sector 16
PAST 0 · sector 20
HEALTH 0 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 39

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Orbia Advance Corporation (ORBIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 15.54 MXN versus a price of 22.47 MXN, about −31% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORBIA?
Our model-based fair value for Orbia Advance Corporation is 15.54 MXN (as of Jul 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 22.47 MXN.
What is the quality score of ORBIA?
Orbia Advance Corporation has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Orbia Advance Corporation (ORBIA)?
Orbia Advance Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.8B MXN (latest available figure, as of Jul 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ORBIA?
The net profit margin of Orbia Advance Corporation is about -5.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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