On The Beach Group PLC (OTB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of On The Beach Group PLC £2.10, price £1.75, upside +20.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch On The Beach Group PLC for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.7960 – £3.78 · fair‑value band £1.47 – £2.73 · the £1.75 price screens below the £2.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow On The Beach Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether On The Beach Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
On the Beach Group plc operates as an online retailer of short haul beach holidays under the On the Beach brand in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland. The company provides its services through onthebeach.co.uk, sunshine.co.uk, and www.onthebeach.ie websites.
Show more
On the Beach Group plc operates as an online retailer of short haul beach holidays under the On the Beach brand in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland. The company provides its services through onthebeach.co.uk, sunshine.co.uk, and www.onthebeach.ie websites. It also operates as tour operator; internet travel agent; travel agent; in-house bedbank; and transport broker. In addition, the company offers employee trust and property management services. On the Beach Group plc was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Manchester, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
On The Beach Group PLC (OTB) currently trades at £1.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.10, implying the stock looks roughly 16.7% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £5.00 per share, and 16 of the 25 models we run sit above the £1.75 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £0.4400, and 9 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £1.47 (bear) to £2.73 (bull), the price of £1.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
On The Beach Group PLC reported revenue of £121M in FY2025 versus £21.2M in FY2021, a compound +54.7%/yr. Reported net income was £8.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 286M GBX · P/E ratio 15.9 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) £0.1100 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 20%, OTB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £1.47Fair Value £2.10Bull £2.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0690 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15% vs −7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−118% → 20%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−28.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −30.0% a year for the price and +11.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Travel Services · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside+20% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−12% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "On The Beach Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OTB
Frequently asked questions
Is On The Beach Group PLC (OTB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £2.10 versus a price of £1.75, about +20% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OTB?
Our model-based fair value for On The Beach Group PLC is £2.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £1.75.
What is the quality score of OTB?
On The Beach Group PLC has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £2.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.47, optimistic scenario £2.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the On The Beach Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £2.10, about +20% upside versus a price of £1.75 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £1.47, optimistic scenario £2.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
On The Beach Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £114M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does On The Beach Group PLC pay a dividend?
On The Beach Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, On The Beach Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -28.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OTB use?
Our models discount On The Beach Group PLC at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.30, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For On The Beach Group PLC that is -28.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has On The Beach Group PLC (OTB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at On The Beach Group PLC grew +29.2 % a year. The price currently implies -28.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into On The Beach Group PLC (-28.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.54 %: that much free cash flow On The Beach Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For On The Beach Group PLC it is £2.10 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £1.75. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is On The Beach Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OTB trades below its calculated fair value: price £1.75, fair value £2.10, a gap of about +20% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OTB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£1.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£2.10). For On The Beach Group PLC the two are £0.3500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is On The Beach Group PLC worth?
The market values On The Beach Group PLC at about 286M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £1.75; our models calculate a fair value of £2.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OTB?
Our models span a range for On The Beach Group PLC: cautious scenario £1.47, base £2.10, optimistic £2.73 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £1.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OTB?
On The Beach Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £2.10 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
Balance-sheet figures for On The Beach Group PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OTB from its 52-week high?
On The Beach Group PLC trades at £1.75, about 23% below its 52-week high of £2.29 and 34% above the low of £1.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £2.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to On The Beach Group PLC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is On The Beach Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £1.75, calculated fair value £2.10 (+20%), Quality Score 53/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OTB calculated?
We run On The Beach Group PLC through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £2.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. On The Beach Group PLC currently trades 20 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was £1.75. Our model-based fair value is £2.10, about +20% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with On The Beach Group PLC right now?
Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (£1.47 to £2.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of On The Beach Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
The market capitalisation of On The Beach Group PLC is 286M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of On The Beach Group PLC is 1.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
Earnings per share at On The Beach Group PLC are £0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
The dividend yield of On The Beach Group PLC is 2.3% (payout 36.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
The net margin of On The Beach Group PLC is 7.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of On The Beach Group PLC is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of On The Beach Group PLC is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
The operating margin of On The Beach Group PLC is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
Revenue at On The Beach Group PLC is growing −12.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at On The Beach Group PLC (OTB)?
Earnings per share at On The Beach Group PLC are growing −51.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does On The Beach Group PLC (OTB) hold?
On The Beach Group PLC holds more cash than debt, 232M GBX net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch On The Beach Group PLC in the live analysis
One click puts On The Beach Group PLC on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
