On the Beach Group (OTB) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 252M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from £2.61 to £1.31 (−49.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 25% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£1.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.7226 – £3.74 · fair‑value band £0.9900 – £1.64 · the £1.75 price screens above the £1.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
On the Beach Group (OTB) currently trades at £1.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.31, implying the stock looks roughly 25.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, On the Beach Group generated revenue of £114M at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue declined 12.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £232M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £0.9900 (bear case) to £1.64 (bull case); at £1.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -25%, OTB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£4.44) versus Dividend Discount (£0.3800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
On the Beach Group plc operates as an online retailer of short haul beach holidays under the On the Beach brand in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland. The company provides its services through onthebeach.co.uk, sunshine.co.uk, and www.onthebeach.ie websites.
Full company description
On the Beach Group plc operates as an online retailer of short haul beach holidays under the On the Beach brand in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland. The company provides its services through onthebeach.co.uk, sunshine.co.uk, and www.onthebeach.ie websites. It also operates as tour operator; internet travel agent; travel agent; in-house bedbank; and transport broker. In addition, the company offers employee trust and property management services. On the Beach Group plc was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Manchester, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
On the Beach Group reported revenue of £121M in FY2025 versus £21.2M in FY2021, a compound +54.7%/yr. Reported net income was £8.6M in FY2025.
OTB screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $182.80 | $152.94 | -16% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $148.62 | $57.47 | -61% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $286.96 | $215.19 | -25% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $100.69 | $43.51 | -57% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $26.41 | $31.36 | +19% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $268.77 | $248.63 | -7% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $42.45 | $88.82 | +109% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $19.46 | $20.28 | +4% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.40 | $4.17 | -56% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $73.27 | $27.29 | -63% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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