Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Pan African Resources PLC is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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A solid business, but trading 122% above our fair value of £0.6100.
As of Aug 20, 2026, the fair value of Pan African Resources PLC is £0.6100 per share against a price of £1.36, so the fair value sits 55% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 28.8% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·1.61% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (8/10)
✓Wide moat 88/100
Evidence: HighRange £0.3900 to £0.9800
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from £0.8300 to £0.6100 (−26.5%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +23.4% over the past month.
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What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.9800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
A fairly wide model range (£0.3900 to £0.9800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.1099 – £1.83 · fair‑value band £0.3900 – £0.9800 · the £1.36 price screens above the £0.6100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) currently trades at £1.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.6100, implying the stock looks roughly 122.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £1.19 per share, and 1 of the 17 models we run sit above the £1.36 price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at £0.1200, and 16 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Pan African Resources PLC generated revenue of £838M at a net margin of 28.8%. Revenue grew 157.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 43.6%. Net debt stands at £144M. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Scenario range: £0.3900 (bear) to £0.9800 (bull), the price of £1.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −55%, PAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0681 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio15.1
P/S ratio3.95P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)£0.0900price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.1
Dividend yield1.6%payout 24.3%
Net margin26.2%FY2025
Return on equity43.6%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)20.7%avg 5y
Operating margin52.4%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)£838MTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+157%3y avg +12.8%
EPS growth (YoY)+192%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−3.8M GBXFY2025
Net debt144M GBXFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality62/100
Of which business quality 60
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Profitability69
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth84
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum81
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance78
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Pan African Resources PLC engages in the mining, extraction, production, and sale of gold in South Africa. Its flagship projects include the Barberton Mines that consists of three underground mines, including Fairview, Sheba, and Consort located in the Barberton Greenstone Belt; and Elikhulu tailings retreatment plant in Southern Africa.
Full company description
Pan African Resources PLC engages in the mining, extraction, production, and sale of gold in South Africa. Its flagship projects include the Barberton Mines that consists of three underground mines, including Fairview, Sheba, and Consort located in the Barberton Greenstone Belt; and Elikhulu tailings retreatment plant in Southern Africa. Pan African Resources PLC is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Pan African Resources PLC reported revenue of $540M in FY2025 versus $369M in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was $142M in FY2025, compounding +17.3%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£540M
Latest YoY
+44.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +27.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+26.2%
Dividend yield1.6%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 26.2% vs 10Y 11.4%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23.9% (2020) → 36.4% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop454% (2018) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in GBP
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 88% above trend (one-off), rate approximate
Revenue+10.0%/yr
FY21$369M
FY22$376M
FY23$322M
FY24$374M
FY25$540M
Net income+17.3%/yr
FY21$74.7M
FY22$75.1M
FY23$61.1M
FY24$79.4M
FY25$142M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+6.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share+0.8 %
of which total revenue +1.4 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %
EBIT margin+6.3 %
Tax rate−0.8 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 0
FUTURE100· sector 100
PAST100· sector 0
HEALTH91· sector 98
DIVIDEND32· sector 21
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
Is Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.6100 versus a price of £1.36, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PAF?
Our model-based fair value for Pan African Resources PLC is £0.6100 (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £1.36.
What is the quality score of PAF?
Pan African Resources PLC has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.6100 (as of Aug 20, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.3900, optimistic scenario £0.9800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pan African Resources PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.6100, about −55% upside versus a price of £1.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.3900, optimistic scenario £0.9800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Pan African Resources PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £838M (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PAF?
The net profit margin of Pan African Resources PLC is about 28.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 28.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Pan African Resources PLC pay a dividend?
Pan African Resources PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.61% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pan African Resources PLC it is £0.6100 per share (as of Aug 20, 2026), against a price of £1.36. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pan African Resources PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 20, 2026, PAF trades above its calculated fair value: price £1.36, fair value £0.6100, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£1.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.6100). For Pan African Resources PLC the two are £0.7450 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pan African Resources PLC worth?
The market values Pan African Resources PLC at about 1.9B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Aug 20, 2026). Per share that is £1.36; our models calculate a fair value of £0.6100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAF?
Our models span a range for Pan African Resources PLC: cautious scenario £0.3900, base £0.6100, optimistic £0.9800 per share (as of Aug 20, 2026, price £1.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PAF?
Pan African Resources PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.1 (as of Aug 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £0.6100 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.7, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pan African Resources PLC (PAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pan African Resources PLC (as of Aug 20, 2026): return on equity 43.6%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Pan African Resources PLC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pan African Resources PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 20, 2026: price £1.36, calculated fair value £0.6100 (−55%), Quality Score 62/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAF calculated?
We run Pan African Resources PLC through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.6100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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