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Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd A$0.04, price A$0.25, upside -83.7%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · AU · ISIN AU000000PAR5

PB Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd

PAR · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0400 · Strongly overvalued (−84%)
!Quality 35/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −59.3 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/6)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Insider activity 30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$2.44 A$0.1400 Fair Value A$0.0400 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.1400 – A$2.44 · fair‑value band A$0.0200 – A$0.0400 · the A$0.2450 price screens above the A$0.0400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Limited engages in the research and development of therapeutic products for human use in Australia.

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Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Limited engages in the research and development of therapeutic products for human use in Australia. Its lead candidate is Zilosul, an injectable pentosan polysulfate sodium drugs for the treatment of osteoarthritis, mucopolysaccharidosis, ross river virus, chikungunya virus, chronic heart failure, allergic respiratory, and acute respiratory distress syndrome diseases. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

Stock analysis

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR) currently trades at A$0.2450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0400, implying the stock looks roughly 512.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0200 (bear) to A$0.0400 (bull), the price of A$0.2450 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd reported revenue of A$52.1K in FY2025 versus A$20.6K in FY2021, a compound +26.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$18.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$99.4M (≈ $70.0M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.1000 · Return on equity −180% · Return on assets (EBIT) −110% · Operating margin −86,794% · Revenue growth (YoY) +50.6% · Free cash flow −A$16.0M · Net cash A$16.8M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −84%, PAR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0200 Fair Value A$0.0400 Bull A$0.0400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0200 A$0.0400 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0200 A$0.0400 50

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 4
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−59.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−361.2% (2020) → −43,910.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

PAR screens 512% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 651 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Below median
Fair Value upside −84% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −83% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 51% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.30× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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A$0.0400 −512%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PAR

Frequently asked questions

Is Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0400 versus a price of A$0.2450, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PAR?
Our model-based fair value for Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd is A$0.0400 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2450.
What is the quality score of PAR?
Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0400 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0400, about −84% upside versus a price of A$0.2450 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd it is A$0.0400 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.2450. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PAR trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.2450, fair value A$0.0400, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2450); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0400). For Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd the two are A$0.2050 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd worth?
The market values Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd at about A$99.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2450; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAR?
Our models span a range for Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0200, base A$0.0400, optimistic A$0.0400 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.2450). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −180.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PAR from its 52-week high?
Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd trades at A$0.2450, about 46% below its 52-week high of A$0.4500 and 75% above the low of A$0.1400 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.2450, calculated fair value A$0.0400 (−84%), Quality Score 35/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAR calculated?
We run Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was A$0.2450. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0400, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0200 to A$0.0400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR)?
The market capitalisation of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd is A$99.4M (≈ $70.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR)?
Earnings per share at Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd are A$−0.1000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd is −180% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd is −110% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR)?
The operating margin of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd is −86,794% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR)?
Revenue at Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd is growing +50.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR) generate?
The free cash flow of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd is −A$16.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (PAR) hold?
Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$16.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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