Pollard Banknote Limited (PBL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$476M
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from C$28.16 to C$21.76 (−22.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −0.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 24% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from C$16.32 (bear) to C$27.20 (bull), base C$21.76. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 49/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$15.37 – C$58.79 · fair‑value band C$16.32 – C$27.20 · the C$17.56 price screens below the C$21.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Pollard Banknote Limited (PBL) currently trades at C$17.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$21.76, implying the stock looks roughly 23.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Pollard Banknote Limited generated revenue of C$591M at a net margin of 4.5%. Revenue declined 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at C$104M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$16.32 (bear case) to C$27.20 (bull case); at C$17.56, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 24%, PBL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$59.48) versus Asset-Based (C$9.24). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Pollard Banknote Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of lottery and charitable gaming products and solutions in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
Full company description
Pollard Banknote Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of lottery and charitable gaming products and solutions in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It produces and provides a range of instant tickets and lottery services, including licensed products; distribution; interactive digital internet games, such as eInstants; iLottery services comprising platform and player account management software through Catalyst brand; loyalty and engagement programs; marketing; and instant ticket vending machines. The company also provides easyVEND brand in-lane ticket vending solutions and scanACTIV brand retail solutions for in-lane retail distribution of instant tickets; charitable gaming products, such as pull-tab tickets, bingo paper, bingo daubers, and pull-tab vending machines, as well as ancillary products, including pull-tab counting machines; promotional scratch and win, transit tickets, and parking passes; lottery management services; eTab systems, including electronic pull tabs on cabinet devices, handled tablets, and self-service terminals; and ticket merchandising services under the Schafer brand. In addition, it designs, produces, and services games, gaming systems, and tickets for various gaming markets, such as lottery and charity gaming. The company sells its products under the American Games, International Gamco, Diamond Game, and Compliant brands. The company was formerly known as 7510101 Canada Limited. Pollard Banknote Limited was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Winnipeg, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Pollard Banknote Limited reported revenue of C$596M in FY2025 versus C$459M in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$34.7M in FY2025, compounding +15.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Gambling · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT | $110.66 | $88.33 | -20% |
| Evolution AB EVO | kr 684.00 | kr 974.80 | +43% |
| The Lottery Corporation TLC | A$5.62 | A$2.99 | -47% |
| Super Group SGHC | $14.73 | $9.39 | -36% |
| Lottomatica Group LTMC | €25.62 | €16.38 | -36% |
| Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO | $78.94 | $70.17 | -11% |
| Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN | $83.95 | $94.74 | +13% |
| FDJ United FDJ | €23.24 | €20.97 | -10% |
| Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL | $10.71 | $17.61 | +64% |
| Tabcorp Holdings TAH | A$0.8750 | A$0.3700 | -58% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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