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Data-driven stock valuation

Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR (PCFBY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Industrials · US · Market cap $2.0B · ISIN US69402P1030

At a glance

PB Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR logo Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR PCFBY · US
Price$10.23
Fair Value$4.69
Upside−54.2%
Quality59/100

A solid business, but trading 118% above our fair value of $4.69.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR is $4.69 per share against a price of $10.23, so the fair value sits 54% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +7.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.8% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·2.65% dividend yield
!Trails peers (3/14)
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Weak on past: 13 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $3.55 to $5.83

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price +29.7% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$10.65 $1.28 Fair Value $4.69 Nov 2016 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.28 – $10.65 · fair‑value band $3.55 – $5.83 · the $10.23 price screens above the $4.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR (PCFBY) currently trades at $10.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.69, implying the stock looks roughly 118.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.85 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $10.23 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.75, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR generated revenue of $2.1B at a net margin of 2.8%. Revenue declined 18.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $40.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Scenario range: $3.55 (bear) to $5.83 (bull), the price of $10.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 113% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at −54%, PCFBY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1507 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $7.13 $10.79 $16.31 77
Growth DCF $7.19 $10.34 $14.77 76
EPV $2.96 $3.30 $3.60 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $7.13 $10.79 $16.31 77
Owner Earnings $6.48 $9.75 $14.70 73
5Y Revenue Exit $4.54 $6.21 $8.27 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $8.70 $14.16 $20.64 72
5Y P/E Exit $5.08 $7.25 $9.53 69
10Y Revenue Exit $5.36 $7.13 $9.42 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $8.05 $12.59 $18.83 66
10Y P/E Exit $5.78 $7.85 $10.37 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.53 $5.29 $7.10 62
Lynch FV $1.22 $1.75 $2.27 59
PEG = 1.0 $1.22 $1.75 $2.27 55
EPV $2.96 $3.30 $3.60 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.50 $2.99 $4.53 64
DDM Multi-Stage $1.50 $2.56 $3.16 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $3.55 $4.73 $5.92 63
P/S Multiple $2.87 $3.83 $4.79 58
P/B Multiple $2.87 $3.83 $4.79 55
EV/EBIT $4.18 $5.31 $6.45 66
EV/EBITDA $10.59 $13.86 $17.13 67
EV/Revenue $3.21 $4.25 $5.29 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.54 $4.74 $7.07 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $7.19 $10.34 $14.77 76
Rev-Margin DCF $4.54 $6.28 $8.36 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $5.12 $5.03 $4.29 74
ROIC Compounder $2.96 $3.30 $3.60 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $3.05 $4.35 $5.66 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($7.85) versus Earnings-Based ($1.75). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 44.5
P/S ratio 1.24 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.2300 price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.5
Dividend yield 2.7% payout 118%
Net margin 2.8% FY2025
Return on equity 3.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 13.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 4.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $2.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −18.3% 3y avg −14.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −54.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $148M FY2025
Net cash $40.1M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 57
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 13
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 90
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 99
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Pacific Basin Shipping Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of dry bulk shipping services in Hong Kong and internationally.

Full company description

Pacific Basin Shipping Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of dry bulk shipping services in Hong Kong and internationally. The company offers shipping services that mainly carry major and minor bulks, including grains, ores, logs/forest products, bauxite, sugar, concentrates, cement and clinkers, coal/coke, fertilizers, alumina, steel, pet-coke, salt, sand and gypsum, and scrap. It also offers shipping consulting, crewing, secretarial, ocean shipping, ship agency, and operation and management services. In addition, the company is involved in the vessel owning and chartering, and convertible bonds issuing activities. It has a fleet of 250 owned and chartered vessels, including 1 Capesize, 106 Handysize and Supramax/Ultramax vessels. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Wong Chuk Hang, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $3.0B in FY2021, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was $58.2M in FY2025, compounding −48.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$2.1B
Latest YoY
−19.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−14.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (22Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−30.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−32.7%
Dividend yield2.7%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4.2% (2019) → 3.3% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop2,654% (2014) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.1%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue −8.5%/yr
FY21 $3.0B
FY22 $3.3B
FY23 $2.3B
FY24 $2.6B
FY25 $2.1B
Net income −48.8%/yr
FY21 $845M
FY22 $702M
FY23 $109M
FY24 $132M
FY25 $58.2M

PCFBY screens 118% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →

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Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR · Fair Value
$4.69 −118%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PCFBY

Peer Group

Marine Shipping · 234 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −54% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −18% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 44.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.10× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.96× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 13.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 8.1× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+7.6 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+7.2 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.6 %
FCF yield on price5.54 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models10.8 %

The price demands roughly the growth the company recently delivered. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 31
FUTURE0 · sector 23
PAST13 · sector 28
HEALTH98 · sector 89
DIVIDEND53 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS ₹1,707 ₹1,041 −39%
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA kr 20,820 kr 20,145 −3%
532921 532921 ₹1,697 ₹1,305 −23%
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 ¥16.06 ¥49.90 +211%
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, HLAG €138.90 €88.00 −37%
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 ¥5.17 ¥6.15 +19%
HMM Co 011200 21,450 KRW 33,795 KRW +58%
Orient Overseas (International) Limited 0316 HK$166.90 HK$237.61 +42%
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 ¥3.39 ¥5.58 +65%
Qingdao Port International Co 601298 ¥8.69 ¥15.97 +84%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR (PCFBY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.69 versus a price of $10.23, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PCFBY?
Our model-based fair value for Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR is $4.69 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.23.
What is the quality score of PCFBY?
Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR (PCFBY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.69 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.55, optimistic scenario $5.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.69, about −54% upside versus a price of $10.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.55, optimistic scenario $5.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR (PCFBY)?
Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PCFBY?
The net profit margin of Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR is about 2.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.65% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR (PCFBY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +7.6 % per year for ten years (discount rate 10.8 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.2 % per year. As of Aug 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PCFBY use?
Our models discount Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd ADR at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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