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Phol Dhanya Public Company (PHOL) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · TH · Market cap 644M THB

PD Phol Dhanya Public Company PHOL · BK
Price3.34 THB
Fair Value5.55 THB
Upside+66.2%
Quality72/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 6.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
7.86% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Moderate moat 54/100
Evidence: High Range 4.16 THB – 6.93 THB Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +7.1% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 66% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (4.16 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

3.86 THB 1.75 THB Fair Value 5.55 THB Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1.75 THB – 3.86 THB · fair‑value band 4.16 THB – 6.93 THB · the 3.34 THB price screens below the 5.55 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Phol Dhanya Public Company (PHOL) currently trades at 3.34 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.55 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 66.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Phol Dhanya Public Company generated revenue of 1.0B THB at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 21.1M THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 4.16 THB (bear case) to 6.93 THB (bull case); at 3.34 THB, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 66%, PHOL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 4.13 THB 5.08 THB 6.67 THB 80
Residual Income 1.97 THB 2.38 THB 4.17 THB 76
Rev-Margin DCF 3.65 THB 5.04 THB 6.82 THB 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 4.03 THB 5.02 THB 6.84 THB 38
Owner Earnings 3.29 THB 4.07 THB 5.53 THB 31
5Y Revenue Exit 3.65 THB 4.95 THB 6.89 THB 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 3.87 THB 5.32 THB 7.30 THB 41
5Y P/E Exit 4.32 THB 6.08 THB 8.25 THB 38
10Y Revenue Exit 3.72 THB 4.80 THB 6.01 THB 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 3.91 THB 5.02 THB 6.25 THB 37
10Y P/E Exit 4.17 THB 5.48 THB 6.81 THB 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 2.22 THB 3.66 THB 4.44 THB 54
EPV 2.59 THB 2.90 THB 3.16 THB 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 1.79 THB 2.12 THB 2.45 THB 70
DDM Multi-Stage 1.79 THB 2.26 THB 2.79 THB 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 4.89 THB 6.53 THB 8.16 THB 63
P/S Multiple 4.16 THB 5.55 THB 6.93 THB 58
P/B Multiple 4.16 THB 5.55 THB 6.93 THB 55
EV/EBIT 5.21 THB 6.84 THB 8.48 THB 53
EV/EBITDA 4.30 THB 5.62 THB 6.95 THB 54
EV/Revenue 3.62 THB 5.03 THB 6.45 THB 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1.02 THB 1.37 THB 2.04 THB 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 4.13 THB 5.08 THB 6.67 THB 80
Rev-Margin DCF 3.65 THB 5.04 THB 6.82 THB 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 1.97 THB 2.38 THB 4.17 THB 76
ROIC Compounder 2.62 THB 2.97 THB 3.34 THB 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 3.46 THB 4.95 THB 6.43 THB 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (5.55 THB) versus Asset-Based (1.37 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.0B THB
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.4%
Net margin 6.8%
Return on equity 16.6%
Free cash flow 89.7M THB FY2025
P/E ratio 9.1
More key figures
Operating margin 10.6%
EPS (TTM) 0.3500 THB
Dividend yield 7.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +25.9%
Net cash 21.1M THB FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 72/100

Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82

Profitability 67
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Phol Dhanya Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, distributes occupational safety, health, and environmental products in Thailand and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Trading in Health and Safety Products, Water Treatment System, and Other Operation.

Full company description

Phol Dhanya Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, distributes occupational safety, health, and environmental products in Thailand and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Trading in Health and Safety Products, Water Treatment System, and Other Operation. It offers personal protective equipment, such as hand protection, fire fighting suit, protective cloths, hearing protection, face protection, head protection, respirators protection, and safety shoes and glasses. The company also provides workplace safety equipment, including system containment systems, emergency showers, portable ventilators, positive respirators, fall protection gear, measurement devices, leak and spill control, and lockout tagout; fire suppression systems, such as clean agents; and cleanroom products comprising sticky rollers, cleanroom shoes and gloves, hair covers, and cleanroom accessory. In addition, it engages in the design, production, construction, and installation of water treatment systems; and distribution of equipment and services, as well as provision of control systems and maintenance of machinery and equipment related to water treatment systems. Further, the company provides design and engineering, structural work, installation and monitoring, analysis laboratory, maintenance, and after-sales services. Additionally, it operates PPE vending machines. Phol Dhanya Public Company Limited was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Pathum Thani, Thailand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Phol Dhanya Public Company reported revenue of 1.0B THB in FY2025 versus 1.2B THB in FY2021, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 66.1M THB in FY2025, compounding −5.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.0B THB
Latest YoY
+0.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.7%
Avg. growth/yr (16Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.0%
Revenue −4.6%/yr
FY21 1.2B THB
FY22 1.0B THB
FY23 971M THB
FY24 1.0B THB
FY25 1.0B THB
Net income −5.2%/yr
FY21 81.9M THB
FY22 54.0M THB
FY23 58.3M THB
FY24 65.7M THB
FY25 66.1M THB
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share −0.1 pp

of which total revenue +1.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.7 pp

EBIT margin +3.5 pp
Tax rate +0.9 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Phol Dhanya Public Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PHOL

Peer Group

Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +66% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Revenue growth 4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.9% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.09× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.56× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.62× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 6.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 19
FUTURE 22 · sector 39
PAST 66 · sector 20
HEALTH 96 · sector 99
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 49

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

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Verisure plc VSURE €10.26 €12.40 +21%
Allegion plc ALLE $137.24 $127.80 -7%
Securitas AB SECUB kr 162.10 kr 186.34 +15%
Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 ¥16.57 ¥23.58 +42%
MSA Safety Incorporated MSA $169.00 $118.51 -30%
ADT Inc ADT $7.06 $17.10 +142%
The Brink's Company BCO $104.24 $101.84 -2%
Brady Corporation BRC $90.16 $73.43 -19%
The GEO Group GEO $29.46 $32.36 +10%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Phol Dhanya Public Company (PHOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.55 THB versus a price of 3.34 THB, about +66% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PHOL?
Our model-based fair value for Phol Dhanya Public Company is 5.55 THB (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 3.34 THB.
What is the quality score of PHOL?
Phol Dhanya Public Company has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Phol Dhanya Public Company (PHOL)?
Phol Dhanya Public Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B THB (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PHOL?
The net profit margin of Phol Dhanya Public Company is about 6.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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