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PUMA SE (PMMAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of PUMA SE $11.53, price $23.60, upside -51.1%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Oct 2, 2026
Thin data
Oct 2, 2026
PUMA SE
PMMAF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $11.53 · Strongly overvalued (−51.1%)
!Quality 40/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +6.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -8.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 17/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.07 – $118.69 · fair‑value band $5.90 – $17.13 · the $23.60 price screens above the $11.53 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
PUMA SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and sale of sports and sports lifestyle products in Europe, Middle East, Africa, India, North America, Latin America, Greater China, Rest of Asia-Pacific, and internationally.
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PUMA SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and sale of sports and sports lifestyle products in Europe, Middle East, Africa, India, North America, Latin America, Greater China, Rest of Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers sports lifestyle products for football, handball, rugby, cricket, volleyball, track and field, motor sports, golf, and basketball. The company also issues licenses to independent partners to design, develop, manufacture, and sell glasses, safety shoes, workwear, and gaming accessories. It sells its products under the PUMA and Cobra Golf brands through retail stores, factory outlets, and online stores, as well as wholesale and retail trade. PUMA SE was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Herzogenaurach, Germany.
Stock analysis
PUMA SE (PMMAF) currently trades at $23.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.53, 51.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $10.39 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $23.60 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $7.61, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.90 (bear) to $17.13 (bull), the price of $23.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
PUMA SE reported revenue of €7.3B in FY2025 versus €6.8B in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was −€643M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.0B · P/S ratio 0.70 · EPS (TTM) $−4.86 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin −8.8% · Return on equity −27.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% · Operating margin 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 110% fair-value upside, at −51%, PMMAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.90
Fair Value $11.53
Bull $17.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA
$5.45
$7.61
$9.77
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$6.03
$10.39
$12.69
65
Gordon GGM
$6.03
$12.02
$18.20
64
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$6.03
$12.02
$18.20
64
DDM Multi-Stage
$6.03
$10.39
$12.69
65
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
$5.45
$7.61
$9.77
67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$6.73
$9.02
$13.46
54
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
40/100
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Profitability
33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
4
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
89
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
13/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
’14
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’17
’18
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’23
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.0% (2020) → −5.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
PMMAF screens overvalued: fair value 51% below the price. Compare with NIKE, Inc →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
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- Puma Biotechnology Initiates ALISCA®-Lung2, a Phase II Trial of Alisertib in Combination with Paclitaxel for the Treatment of Patients with
- Is PUMA (XTRA:PUM) Undervalued Following Its Leadership Change?
Compare PUMA SE with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Footwear & Accessories · 91 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE, Inc NKE | $35.15 | $34.38 | −2% |
| Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK | $78.36 | $176.31 | +125% |
| On Holding ONON | $29.96 | $26.80 | −11% |
| Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 | ¥10.84 | ¥27.10 | +150% |
| Crocs, Inc CROX | $122.63 | $281.25 | +129% |
| Huali Industrial Group 300979 | ¥34.18 | ¥50.95 | +49% |
| Birkenstock Holding BIRK | $33.60 | $50.10 | +49% |
| Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO | $44.90 | $12.34 | −73% |
| Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited 0551 | HK$12.60 | HK$31.67 | +151% |
| Pou Chen Corporation 9904 | 24.85 TWD | 52.19 TWD | +110% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is PUMA SE (PMMAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.53 versus a price of $23.60, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PMMAF?
Our model-based fair value for PUMA SE is $11.53 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.60.
What is the quality score of PMMAF?
PUMA SE has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.53 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.90, optimistic scenario $17.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PUMA SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.53, about −51% upside versus a price of $23.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.90, optimistic scenario $17.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
PUMA SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €7.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does PUMA SE pay a dividend?
PUMA SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.79% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PUMA SE it is $11.53 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $23.60. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PUMA SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, PMMAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $23.60, fair value $11.53, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PMMAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.53). For PUMA SE the two are $12.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PUMA SE worth?
The market values PUMA SE at about $5.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $23.60; our models calculate a fair value of $11.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PMMAF?
Our models span a range for PUMA SE: cautious scenario $5.90, base $11.53, optimistic $17.13 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $23.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of PMMAF?
The PEG ratio of PUMA SE is 1.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for PUMA SE (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −27.3%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PMMAF from its 52-week high?
PUMA SE trades at $23.60, about 30% below its 52-week high of $33.74 and 31% above the low of $18.07 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PUMA SE?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value NIKE, Inc, Deckers Outdoor Corporation, On Holding, Zhejiang China Commodities City Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PUMA SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $23.60, calculated fair value $11.53 (−51%), Quality Score 40/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PMMAF calculated?
We run PUMA SE through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. PUMA SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $23.60. Our model-based fair value is $11.53, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PUMA SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($5.90 to $17.13). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of PUMA SE (PMMAF) come from?
Earnings per share at PUMA SE grew +21.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.0 %, EBIT margin +8.7 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PUMA SE
How large is the market capitalisation of PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
The market capitalisation of PUMA SE is $5.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PUMA SE is 0.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
Earnings per share at PUMA SE are $−4.86. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
The dividend yield of PUMA SE is 1.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
The net margin of PUMA SE is −8.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PUMA SE is −27.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PUMA SE is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
The operating margin of PUMA SE is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
Revenue at PUMA SE is growing −6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PUMA SE (PMMAF)?
Earnings per share at PUMA SE are growing +52.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does PUMA SE (PMMAF) generate?
The free cash flow of PUMA SE is −€632M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does PUMA SE (PMMAF) carry?
The net debt of PUMA SE is €2.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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