Pou Chen Corp (9904) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Pou Chen Corp TWD 69.62, price TWD 24.95, upside +179.0%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Pou Chen Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells various shoes in Taiwan and internationally.
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Pou Chen Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells various shoes in Taiwan and internationally. It offers athletic, casual footwear, outdoor shoes, sports apparel and accessories; operates entertainment and resort; imports and exports shoe related materials; operates of land demarcation; leases and sells real estate, hotel operation; and invests in footwear, electronic, and peripheral products. The company also engages in retail of sporting goods and brand licensing; personal, property, and casualty insurance agency; and construction businesses. Pou Chen Corporation was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Taichung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Pou Chen Corp (9904) currently trades at 24.95 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 69.62 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 64.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 76.04 TWD per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the 24.95 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 21.34 TWD, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 50.25 TWD (bear) to 87.03 TWD (bull), the price of 24.95 TWD sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Pou Chen Corp reported revenue of 251B TWD in FY2025 versus 240B TWD in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was 12.1B TWD in FY2025, compounding −4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 73.7B TWD (≈ $2.3B) · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) 4.08 TWD · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 179%, 9904 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 50.25 TWDFair Value 69.62 TWDBull 87.03 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.03 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0% vs 3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Footwear & Accessories · 98 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+179% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
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Is Pou Chen Corp (9904) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 69.62 TWD versus a price of 24.95 TWD, about +179% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9904?
Our model-based fair value for Pou Chen Corp is 69.62 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 24.95 TWD.
What is the quality score of 9904?
Pou Chen Corp has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 69.62 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 50.25 TWD, optimistic scenario 87.03 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pou Chen Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 69.62 TWD, about +179% upside versus a price of 24.95 TWD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 50.25 TWD, optimistic scenario 87.03 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
Pou Chen Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 247B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Pou Chen Corp pay a dividend?
Pou Chen Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.21% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pou Chen Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -8.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9904 use?
Our models discount Pou Chen Corp at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pou Chen Corp that is -8.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pou Chen Corp (9904) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pou Chen Corp grew +0.1 % a year. The price currently implies -8.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pou Chen Corp (9904) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pou Chen Corp (-8.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.07 %: that much free cash flow Pou Chen Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pou Chen Corp it is 69.62 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 24.95 TWD. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pou Chen Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 9904 trades below its calculated fair value: price 24.95 TWD, fair value 69.62 TWD, a gap of about +179% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9904?
No. The price is what the market pays today (24.95 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (69.62 TWD). For Pou Chen Corp the two are 44.67 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pou Chen Corp worth?
The market values Pou Chen Corp at about 73.7B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 24.95 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 69.62 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9904?
Our models span a range for Pou Chen Corp: cautious scenario 50.25 TWD, base 69.62 TWD, optimistic 87.03 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 24.95 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9904?
Pou Chen Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 69.62 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 9904?
The PEG ratio of Pou Chen Corp is 1.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pou Chen Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9904 from its 52-week high?
Pou Chen Corp trades at 24.95 TWD, about 18% below its 52-week high of 30.53 TWD and 6% above the low of 23.45 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 69.62 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pou Chen Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value NIKE, Inc, Deckers Outdoor Corporation, On Holding, Zhejiang China Commodities City Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pou Chen Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 24.95 TWD, calculated fair value 69.62 TWD (+179%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9904 calculated?
We run Pou Chen Corp through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 69.62 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Pou Chen Corp currently trades 179 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 24.95 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 69.62 TWD, about +179% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pou Chen Corp right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (50.25 TWD). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Pou Chen Corp (9904) come from?
Earnings per share at Pou Chen Corp grew +2.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.1 %, EBIT margin +0.3 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Pou Chen Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
The market capitalisation of Pou Chen Corp is 73.7B TWD (≈ $2.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pou Chen Corp is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
Earnings per share at Pou Chen Corp are 4.08 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
The dividend yield of Pou Chen Corp is 5.2% (payout 31.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
The net margin of Pou Chen Corp is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pou Chen Corp is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pou Chen Corp is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
The operating margin of Pou Chen Corp is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
Revenue at Pou Chen Corp is growing −5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pou Chen Corp (9904)?
Earnings per share at Pou Chen Corp are growing +17.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Pou Chen Corp (9904) carry?
The net debt of Pou Chen Corp is 56.7B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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