PMT Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $894M
PMT
PMT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 27, 2026, revised from $24.93 to $24.35 (−2.3%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −7.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 152% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($18.26). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.02 – $13.35 · fair‑value band $18.26 – $30.44 · the $9.65 price screens below the $24.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
PMT (PMT) currently trades at $9.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.35, implying the stock looks roughly 152.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, PMT generated revenue of $676M at a net margin of 21.1%. Revenue declined 24.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.6%. Net debt stands at $18.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.26 (bear case) to $30.44 (bull case); at $9.65, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 152%, PMT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($26.57) versus Asset-Based ($14.50). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, through its subsidiary, primarily invests in residential mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company operates through: Credit Sensitive Strategies, Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies, and Correspondent Production segments.
Full company description
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, through its subsidiary, primarily invests in residential mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company operates through: Credit Sensitive Strategies, Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies, and Correspondent Production segments. The Credit Sensitive Strategies segment invests in credit risk transfer (CRT) agreements and subordinate and credit-linked mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies segment engages in investing in mortgage servicing rights, agency and senior non-agency MBS, and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), as well as interest rate hedging activities. The Correspondent Production segment is involved in purchasing, pooling, and reselling newly originated prime credit quality loans directly or in the form of MBS. The company primarily sells its loans to government-sponsored enterprises. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). It is not subject to U.S. federal income tax on the REIT taxable income it distributes to its shareholders. PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PMT reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $82.8M in FY2021, a compound +114.2%/yr. Reported net income was $128M in FY2025, compounding +22.5%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- KBRA Assigns Preliminary Ratings to PMT Loan Trust 2026-CNF7 (PMTLT 2026-CNF7)
- PMT Q2 Deep Dive: Strategic Shift to Credit Sensitive Investments Amid Ongoing Market Headwinds
- PennyMac Mortgage (PMT) Misses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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