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PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust $16.90, price $8.73, upside +93.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Real Estate · US · ISIN US70931T1034

PM PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust

PMT · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $16.90 · Strongly undervalued (+94%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +74.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 21.1% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·18.33% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Moderate moat 50/100
!Insider activity 35/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$13.35 $7.02 Fair Value $16.90 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.02 – $13.35 · fair‑value band $16.37 – $16.90 · the $8.73 price screens below the $16.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, through its subsidiary, primarily invests in residential mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company operates through: Credit Sensitive Strategies, Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies, and Correspondent Production segments.

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PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, through its subsidiary, primarily invests in residential mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company operates through: Credit Sensitive Strategies, Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies, and Correspondent Production segments. The Credit Sensitive Strategies segment invests in credit risk transfer (CRT) agreements and subordinate and credit-linked mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies segment engages in investing in mortgage servicing rights, agency and senior non-agency MBS, and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), as well as interest rate hedging activities. The Correspondent Production segment is involved in purchasing, pooling, and reselling newly originated prime credit quality loans directly or in the form of MBS. The company primarily sells its loans to government-sponsored enterprises. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). It is not subject to U.S. federal income tax on the REIT taxable income it distributes to its shareholders. PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.

Stock analysis

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) currently trades at $8.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.90, implying the stock looks roughly 48.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $26.57 per share, and 8 of the 8 models we run sit above the $8.73 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.50, and 0 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $16.37 (bear) to $16.90 (bull), the price of $8.73 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $82.8M in FY2021, a compound +114.2%/yr. Reported net income was $128M in FY2025, compounding +22.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $894M · P/E ratio 7.5 · P/S ratio 0.55 · EPS (TTM) $1.16 · Net margin 7.3% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% · Operating margin 18.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 94%, PMT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $16.37 Fair Value $16.90 Bull $16.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $16.62 $17.24 $17.18 76
Gordon GGM $16.14 $29.09 $40.04 68
DDM Multi-Stage $16.14 $26.57 $31.07 67
All 8 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $16.14 $29.09 $40.04 68
DDM Multi-Stage $16.14 $26.57 $31.07 67
Multiples
P/S Multiple $18.70 $24.93 $31.16 58
P/B Multiple $18.70 $24.93 $31.16 55
EV/EBIT $18.32 $65.72 $113.13 60
EV/EBITDA n/a $34.32 $73.87 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.82 $14.50 $21.64 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $16.62 $17.24 $17.18 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 20
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 89
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+245.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+74.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.6% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20% vs 3%, picking up
Profit margin 2018 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.56% → 66%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +94% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 21% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −24% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 18.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 5.87× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.47× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 1.32× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.76× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 100
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 9
PAST (return on equity)30 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 0
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 100

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY $21.44 $23.37 +9%
AGNC Investment Corp AGNC $10.09 $25.23 +150%
Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD $15.10 $35.89 +138%
Rithm Capital Corp RITM $9.64 $12.93 +34%
Dynex Capital, Inc DX $12.10 $11.09 −8%
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT $13.14 $32.85 +150%
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR $14.99 $23.05 +54%
Ellington Financial Inc EFC $12.70 $13.45 +6%
Ladder Capital Corp LADR $9.41 $7.57 −20%
Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC $6.12 $15.30 +150%

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PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust · Fair Value
$16.90 +48%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PMT

Frequently asked questions

Is PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.90 versus a price of $8.73, about +94% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PMT?
Our model-based fair value for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is $16.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.73.
What is the quality score of PMT?
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.37, optimistic scenario $16.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.90, about +94% upside versus a price of $8.73 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $16.37, optimistic scenario $16.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $676M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust it is $16.90 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.73. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PMT trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.73, fair value $16.90, a gap of about +94% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PMT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.90). For PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust the two are $8.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust worth?
The market values PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust at about $894M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.73; our models calculate a fair value of $16.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PMT?
Our models span a range for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust: cautious scenario $16.37, base $16.90, optimistic $16.90 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PMT?
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 0.5, P/S 1.3.
What is the PEG ratio of PMT?
The PEG ratio of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is 0.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
Balance-sheet figures for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 5.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PMT from its 52-week high?
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust trades at $8.73, about 35% below its 52-week high of $13.35 and at the low of $8.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.73, calculated fair value $16.90 (+94%), Quality Score 46/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PMT calculated?
We run PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust currently trades 94 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.73. Our model-based fair value is $16.90, about +94% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($16.37). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The models converge in a tight band ($16.37 to $16.90), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) come from?
Earnings per share at PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust grew +1.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.7 %, EBIT margin +5.1 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −13.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust

How large is the market capitalisation of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
The market capitalisation of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is $894M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is 0.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
Earnings per share at PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust are $1.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
The net margin of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is 7.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
The operating margin of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
Revenue at PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is growing −24.1% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)?
Earnings per share at PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust are growing +17.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) generate?
The free cash flow of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is −$7.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) carry?
The net debt of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is $18.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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