Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pandox AB (publ) stock SEK 93.19, price SEK 159, upside -41.3%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 95.14 – kr 198.80 · fair‑value band kr 71.47 – kr 279.98 · the kr 158.80 price screens above the kr 93.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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Pandox AB (publ) owns, develops, and leases hotel properties to skilled hotel operators under long-term, turnover based leases with minimum guaranteed levels. Since their inception in 1995, they have grown into one of the largest hotel property owners in Europe.
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Their portfolio consists of 193 hotel properties with approximately 43,000 rooms across 11 countries in Northern Europe. The portfolio market value is approximately SEK 90bn. The headquarters is in Stockholm, and we are listed on Nasdaq Stockholm.
Pandox AB (publ) was established on January 28, 1932 and incorporated in Sweden.
Stock analysis
Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B) currently trades at kr 158.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 93.19, 41.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 184.13 per share, and 3 of the 11 models we run sit above the kr 158.80 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at kr 81.39, and 8 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 71.47 (bear) to kr 279.98 (bull), the price of kr 158.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Pandox AB (publ) reported revenue of 7.5B SEK in FY2025 versus 3.3B SEK in FY2021, a compound +22.9%/yr. Reported net income was 3.1B SEK in FY2025, compounding +50.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 30.9B SEK (≈ $3.1B) Mid · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 3.90 · EPS (TTM) kr 16.37 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 40.2% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −41%, PNDX-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 71.47Fair Value kr 93.19Bullkr 279.98
Price kr 158.80 · Upside -41.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 9.53 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.9% vs 1.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 53%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.8% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from internal room additions via extensions and conversions of existing hotels yet shows weak points in one-off driven margins together with high leverage and low ROE that limit moat evidence.
Main risk: Elevated total debt relative to equity creates refinancing risk that could constrain funding for further hotel room expansions and hit earnings.
Pandox adds rooms to existing hotels through extensions and conversions of underutilized space rather than relying solely on acquisitions. Nearly 800 rooms have been added across the portfolio in the past decade with over 600 more planned for 2026 and 2027. Our models see the stock as overvalued even with a strengthening European hotel market. Will these internal expansions drive enough earnings growth to justify the valuation or will broader market trends matter more?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 519 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−41.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.5% · Above median
Return on assets2.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)40.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)61.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.35× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.92× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.90× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow15.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.7× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 45
FUTURE (revenue growth)74· sector 17
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)33· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)57· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pandox AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PNDX-B
Frequently asked questions
Is Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 93.19 versus a price of kr 158.80, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PNDX-B?
Our model-based fair value for Pandox AB (publ) is kr 93.19 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 158.80.
What is the quality score of PNDX-B?
Pandox AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 93.19 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 71.47, optimistic scenario kr 279.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pandox AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 93.19, about −41% upside versus a price of kr 158.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 71.47, optimistic scenario kr 279.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
Pandox AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.9B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
Does Pandox AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Pandox AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of 2.83% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pandox AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +23.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.6 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PNDX-B use?
Our models discount Pandox AB (publ) at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.23, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pandox AB (publ) that is +23.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pandox AB (publ) grew +18.6 % a year. The price currently implies +23.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pandox AB (publ) (+23.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.52 %: that much free cash flow Pandox AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pandox AB (publ) it is kr 93.19 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of kr 158.80. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pandox AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, PNDX-B trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 158.80, fair value kr 93.19, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PNDX-B?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 158.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 93.19). For Pandox AB (publ) the two are kr 65.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pandox AB (publ) worth?
The market values Pandox AB (publ) at about 30.9B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is kr 158.80; our models calculate a fair value of kr 93.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PNDX-B?
Our models span a range for Pandox AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 71.47, base kr 93.19, optimistic kr 279.98 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price kr 158.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PNDX-B?
Pandox AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 93.19 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 16.2 (reported for FY2025: 9.8). Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 15.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pandox AB (publ) (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 9.5%, debt of 1.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PNDX-B from its 52-week high?
Pandox AB (publ) trades at kr 158.80, about 20% below its 52-week high of kr 198.39 and 7% above the low of kr 148.80 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 93.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pandox AB (publ)?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pandox AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price kr 158.80, calculated fair value kr 93.19 (−41%), Quality Score 52/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PNDX-B calculated?
We run Pandox AB (publ) through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 93.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Pandox AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was kr 158.80. Our model-based fair value is kr 93.19, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pandox AB (publ) right now?
The model range is unusually wide (kr 71.47 to kr 279.98). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B) come from?
Earnings per share at Pandox AB (publ) grew +0.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin −4.3 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Pandox AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
The market capitalisation of Pandox AB (publ) is 30.9B SEK (≈ $3.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pandox AB (publ) is 3.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
Earnings per share at Pandox AB (publ) are kr 16.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
The dividend yield of Pandox AB (publ) is 2.8% (payout 45.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 27.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
The net margin of Pandox AB (publ) is 40.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pandox AB (publ) is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pandox AB (publ) is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
The operating margin of Pandox AB (publ) is 61.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
Revenue at Pandox AB (publ) is growing +14.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B)?
Earnings per share at Pandox AB (publ) are growing −68.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B) carry?
The net debt of Pandox AB (publ) is 51.9B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 25.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 13, 2026