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PostNL N.V (PNL) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · NL · Market cap €471M

PN PostNL N.V PNL · AS
Price€0.9110
Fair Value€2.60
Upside+185.4%
Quality45/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -0.5% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
4.29% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/14)
Narrow moat 26/100
Evidence: High Range €1.86 – €3.90 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from €1.56 to €2.60 (+66.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −0.4% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 185% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€1.86). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (€1.86 to €3.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€3.37 €0.8212 Fair Value €2.60 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €0.8212 – €3.37 · fair‑value band €1.86 – €3.90 · the €0.9110 price screens below the €2.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

PostNL N.V (PNL) currently trades at €0.9110, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.60, implying the stock looks roughly 185.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, PostNL N.V generated revenue of €3.3B at a net margin of -0.5%. Revenue grew 2.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.4%. Net debt stands at €652M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €1.86 (bear case) to €3.90 (bull case); at €0.9110, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 185%, PNL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €1.64 €2.23 €3.14 80
Rev-Margin DCF €0.4400 €0.5600 €0.7400 74
Gordon GGM €0.2300 €0.2500 €0.2700 70
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €1.57 €2.19 €3.23 38
Owner Earnings €2.48 €3.38 €4.88 31
5Y Revenue Exit €0.4400 €0.5000 €0.6000 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €2.62 €4.28 €6.48 41
10Y Revenue Exit €0.9300 €1.02 €1.09 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €2.14 €3.16 €4.24 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €0.2300 €0.2500 €0.2700 70
DDM Multi-Stage €0.2300 €0.2700 €0.3300 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA €4.09 €5.61 €7.14 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.1700 €0.2300 €0.3500 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €1.64 €2.23 €3.14 80
Rev-Margin DCF €0.4400 €0.5600 €0.7400 74

Widest divergence: Multiples (€5.61) versus Asset-Based (€0.2300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €3.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.2%
Net margin -0.5%
Return on equity -9.4%
Free cash flow €128M FY2025
Operating margin 8.1%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) €-0.0400
Dividend yield 4.0%
EPS growth (YoY) -7.4%
Net debt €652M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 70
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PostNL N.V. provides postal and logistics services to businesses and consumers in the Netherlands, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company in two segments, Parcels and Mail in the Netherlands, and PostNL Other.

Full company description

PostNL N.V. provides postal and logistics services to businesses and consumers in the Netherlands, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company in two segments, Parcels and Mail in the Netherlands, and PostNL Other. It collects, sorts, transports, and delivers letters and parcels; and offers data management, direct marketing, and fulfillment services, as well as cross-border mail and parcels solutions. The company was formerly known as TNT N.V. and changed its name to PostNL N.V. in May 2011. The company is based in The Hague, the Netherlands.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PostNL N.V reported revenue of €3.3B in FY2025 versus €3.5B in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€17.0M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 30/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€3.3B
Latest YoY
+1.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+1.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+0.3%
Avg. growth/yr (27Y)
−2.9%
Revenue −1.2%/yr
FY21 €3.5B
FY22 €3.1B
FY23 €3.2B
FY24 €3.3B
FY25 €3.3B
Net income
FY21 €257M
FY22 −€981M
FY23 €55.0M
FY24 €17.0M
FY25 −€17.0M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PostNL N.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PNL

Peer Group

Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside +185% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Revenue growth 2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.3% · Above median
Debt / equity 4.28× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.09× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.16× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 4.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.44× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 45
FUTURE 11 · sector 8
PAST 0 · sector 26
HEALTH 0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 86 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $117.72 $104.58 -11%
FedEx Corporation FDX $314.69 $347.68 +10%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €57.22 €53.18 -7%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,660 kr 712.57 -57%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 209.90 CHF 147.92 -30%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $291.41 $133.80 -54%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥31.91 ¥48.64 +52%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $193.50 $86.56 -55%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $172.02 $115.95 -33%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$181.40 HK$241.93 +33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PostNL N.V (PNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.60 versus a price of €0.9110, about +185% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PNL?
Our model-based fair value for PostNL N.V is €2.60 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €0.9110.
What is the quality score of PNL?
PostNL N.V has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PostNL N.V (PNL)?
PostNL N.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.3B (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PNL?
The net profit margin of PostNL N.V is about -0.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does PostNL N.V pay a dividend?
PostNL N.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.95% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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