PostNL NV (PNL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of PostNL NV €3.16, price €0.83, upside +280.3%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.8212 – €3.29 · fair‑value band €2.28 – €4.70 · the €0.8310 price screens below the €3.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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PostNL N.V. provides postal and logistics services to businesses and consumers in the Netherlands, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company in two segments, Parcels and Mail in the Netherlands, and PostNL Other.
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PostNL N.V. provides postal and logistics services to businesses and consumers in the Netherlands, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company in two segments, Parcels and Mail in the Netherlands, and PostNL Other. It collects, sorts, transports, and delivers letters and parcels; and offers data management, direct marketing, and fulfillment services, as well as cross-border mail and parcels solutions. The company was formerly known as TNT N.V. and changed its name to PostNL N.V. in May 2011. The company is based in The Hague, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
PostNL NV (PNL) currently trades at €0.8310, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.16, implying the stock looks roughly 73.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €5.61 per share, and 7 of the 12 models we run sit above the €0.8310 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €0.7400, and 5 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €2.28 (bear) to €4.70 (bull), the price of €0.8310 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
PostNL NV reported revenue of €3.3B in FY2025 versus €3.5B in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€17.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €471M · P/E ex one-offs 20.1 · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) €−0.0400 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin −0.5% · Return on equity −9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 280%, PNL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €2.28Fair Value €3.16Bull €4.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.4% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.0% (2020) → 0.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.0% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 201 stocks
P/B3.01× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PostNL NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PNL
Frequently asked questions
Is PostNL NV (PNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.16 versus a price of €0.8310, about +280% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PNL?
Our model-based fair value for PostNL NV is €3.16 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €0.8310.
What is the quality score of PNL?
PostNL NV has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PostNL NV (PNL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.16 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.28, optimistic scenario €4.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PostNL NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.16, about +280% upside versus a price of €0.8310 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €2.28, optimistic scenario €4.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PostNL NV (PNL)?
PostNL NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does PostNL NV pay a dividend?
PostNL NV currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into PostNL NV (PNL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PostNL NV would have to grow free cash flow by -14.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.3 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PNL use?
Our models discount PostNL NV at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PostNL NV that is -14.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PostNL NV (PNL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PostNL NV grew +0.3 % a year. The price currently implies -14.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PostNL NV (PNL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PostNL NV (-14.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PostNL NV (PNL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 30.42 %: that much free cash flow PostNL NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PostNL NV (PNL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PostNL NV it is €3.16 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of €0.8310. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PostNL NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, PNL trades below its calculated fair value: price €0.8310, fair value €3.16, a gap of about +280% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PNL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€0.8310); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.16). For PostNL NV the two are €2.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PostNL NV worth?
The market values PostNL NV at about €471M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is €0.8310; our models calculate a fair value of €3.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PNL?
Our models span a range for PostNL NV: cautious scenario €2.28, base €3.16, optimistic €4.70 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price €0.8310). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of PNL?
The PEG ratio of PostNL NV is 1.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PostNL NV (PNL)?
Balance-sheet figures for PostNL NV (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −9.4%, debt of 4.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PNL from its 52-week high?
PostNL NV trades at €0.8310, about 31% below its 52-week high of €1.21 and 1% above the low of €0.8250 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PostNL NV?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PostNL NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price €0.8310, calculated fair value €3.16 (+280%), Quality Score 45/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PNL calculated?
We run PostNL NV through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. PostNL NV currently trades 74 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PostNL NV (PNL)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €0.8310. Our model-based fair value is €3.16, about +280% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PostNL NV right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€2.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€2.28 to €4.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of PostNL NV (PNL) come from?
Earnings per share at PostNL NV grew −20.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.0 %, EBIT margin −17.1 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PostNL NV
How large is the market capitalisation of PostNL NV (PNL)?
The market capitalisation of PostNL NV is €471M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of PostNL NV (PNL) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of PostNL NV is 20.1 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of PostNL NV (PNL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PostNL NV is 0.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PostNL NV (PNL)?
Earnings per share at PostNL NV are €−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PostNL NV (PNL)?
The dividend yield of PostNL NV is 4.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PostNL NV (PNL)?
The net margin of PostNL NV is −0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PostNL NV (PNL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PostNL NV is −9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PostNL NV (PNL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PostNL NV is −8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PostNL NV (PNL)?
The operating margin of PostNL NV is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PostNL NV (PNL)?
Revenue at PostNL NV is growing +2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PostNL NV (PNL)?
Earnings per share at PostNL NV are growing −7.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PostNL NV (PNL) carry?
The net debt of PostNL NV is €652M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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