Portillo's Inc (PTLO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $308M
Portillo's Inc
PTLO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −3.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 13% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($2.90 to $5.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $2.90 (bear) to $5.74 (bull), base $3.86. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 23/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range $3.81 – $54.22 · fair‑value band $2.90 – $5.74 · the $4.43 price screens above the $3.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Portillo's Inc (PTLO) currently trades at $4.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.86, implying the stock looks roughly 12.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Portillo's Inc generated revenue of $738M at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.3%. Net debt stands at $650M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.90 (bear case) to $5.74 (bull case); at $4.43, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -13%, PTLO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($5.88) versus Dividend Discount ($1.00). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Portillo's Inc. owns and operates fast casual restaurants in the United States. The company offers Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages, Italian beef sandwiches, char-grilled burgers, chopped salads, crinkle-cut and cheese fries, homemade chocolate cakes, and chocolate cake shake. It also operates a food truck under The Beef Bus name; and a ghost kitchen.
Full company description
Portillo's Inc. owns and operates fast casual restaurants in the United States. The company offers Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages, Italian beef sandwiches, char-grilled burgers, chopped salads, crinkle-cut and cheese fries, homemade chocolate cakes, and chocolate cake shake. It also operates a food truck under The Beef Bus name; and a ghost kitchen. In addition, the company provides delivery services through its application and website, as well as third-party delivery platforms. Further, it sells gift cards. Portillo's Inc. was founded in 1963 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Portillo's Inc reported revenue of $732M in FY2025 versus $535M in FY2021, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was $19.3M in FY2025, compounding +34.0%/yr from FY2021.
PTLO screens 13% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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