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Portillo's Inc (PTLO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Portillo's Inc $3.68, price $3.65, upside +0.9%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN US73642K1060

PS Portillo's Inc logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Portillo's Inc

PTLO · US

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value $3.68 · Fairly valued (+1%)
!Quality 23/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $1.20 to $5.74
!Weak on future: 18 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$54.22 $3.65 Fair Value $3.68 Oct 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

59‑month range $3.65 – $54.22 · fair‑value band $1.20 – $5.74 · the $3.65 price screens below the $3.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Portillo's Inc. owns and operates fast casual restaurants in the United States. The company offers Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages, Italian beef sandwiches, char-grilled burgers, chopped salads, crinkle-cut and cheese fries, homemade chocolate cakes, and chocolate cake shake. It also operates a food truck under The Beef Bus name; and a ghost kitchen.

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Portillo's Inc. owns and operates fast casual restaurants in the United States. The company offers Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages, Italian beef sandwiches, char-grilled burgers, chopped salads, crinkle-cut and cheese fries, homemade chocolate cakes, and chocolate cake shake. It also operates a food truck under The Beef Bus name; and a ghost kitchen. In addition, the company provides delivery services through its application and website, as well as third-party delivery platforms. Further, it sells gift cards. Portillo's Inc. was founded in 1963 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Portillo's Inc (PTLO) currently trades at $3.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.68, implying the stock looks roughly 0.8% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $5.88 per share, and 10 of the 14 models we run sit above the $3.65 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.77, and 4 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $1.20 (bear) to $5.74 (bull), the price of $3.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Portillo's Inc reported revenue of $732M in FY2025 versus $535M in FY2021, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was $19.3M in FY2025, compounding +34.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $308M · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) $0.2100 · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% · Operating margin 2.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 1%, PTLO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.20 Fair Value $3.68 Bull $5.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1542 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $2.08 $2.78 $3.35 74
ROIC Compounder $2.08 $2.78 $3.35 72
Residual Income $4.54 $4.40 $3.69 71
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.82 $5.68 $7.56 64
Lynch FV $1.24 $1.77 $2.30 61
PEG = 1.0 $1.24 $1.77 $2.30 57
EPV $2.08 $2.78 $3.35 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $4.41 $5.88 $7.35 63
P/S Multiple $3.41 $4.54 $5.68 58
P/B Multiple $3.41 $4.54 $5.68 55
EV/EBIT $6.54 $9.72 $12.90 65
EV/EBITDA $6.97 $10.30 $13.63 66
EV/Revenue $3.43 $6.18 $8.94 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.23 $4.33 $6.46 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $4.54 $4.40 $3.69 71
ROIC Compounder $2.08 $2.78 $3.35 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $3.63 $5.19 $6.75 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 34
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 15
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 49/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 7%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 226 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.51× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.66× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.42× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)34 · sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)18 · sector 18
PAST (return on equity)13 · sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)75 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 70

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCD $238.32 $162.16 −32%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $94.14 $35.83 −62%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $32.71 $35.98 +10%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $140.63 $75.61 −46%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR $71.66 $74.72 +4%
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $213.54 $173.68 −19%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $40.85 $49.95 +22%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $164.84 $128.38 −22%
Dutch Bros Inc BROS $38.76 $15.54 −60%
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $296.43 $231.96 −22%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Portillo's Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PTLO

Frequently asked questions

Is Portillo's Inc (PTLO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.68 versus a price of $3.65, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PTLO?
Our model-based fair value for Portillo's Inc is $3.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.65.
What is the quality score of PTLO?
Portillo's Inc has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.20, optimistic scenario $5.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Portillo's Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.68, about +1% upside versus a price of $3.65 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $1.20, optimistic scenario $5.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
Portillo's Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $738M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Portillo's Inc it is $3.68 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $3.65. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Portillo's Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PTLO trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.65, fair value $3.68, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PTLO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.68). For Portillo's Inc the two are $0.0310 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Portillo's Inc worth?
The market values Portillo's Inc at about $308M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $3.65; our models calculate a fair value of $3.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PTLO?
Our models span a range for Portillo's Inc: cautious scenario $1.20, base $3.68, optimistic $5.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $3.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PTLO?
Portillo's Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.68 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 12.2 (reported for FY2025: 13.5). Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Portillo's Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PTLO from its 52-week high?
Portillo's Inc trades at $3.65, about 46% below its 52-week high of $6.75 and at the low of $3.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Portillo's Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Portillo's Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $3.65, calculated fair value $3.68 (+1%), Quality Score 23/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PTLO calculated?
We run Portillo's Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Portillo's Inc currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $3.65. Our model-based fair value is $3.68, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Portillo's Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($1.20 to $5.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Key figures of Portillo's Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
The market capitalisation of Portillo's Inc is $308M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Portillo's Inc is 0.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
Earnings per share at Portillo's Inc are $0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
The net margin of Portillo's Inc is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Portillo's Inc is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Portillo's Inc is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
The operating margin of Portillo's Inc is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
Revenue at Portillo's Inc is growing +3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?
Earnings per share at Portillo's Inc are growing −51.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Portillo's Inc (PTLO) generate?
The free cash flow of Portillo's Inc is −$18.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Portillo's Inc (PTLO) carry?
The net debt of Portillo's Inc is $650M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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