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Portillo's Inc (PTLO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Portillo's Inc stock $4.32, price $6.64, that is 34.9% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

14 models, one by oneBear $2.07 to bull $6.74 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 27/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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Consumer Cyclical US

Some data Nov 7, 2026

Portillo's Inc

PTLO · US

Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 35% below what the stock costs today.

Positive coverage

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.0 %/yr in USD)

Thin margins · 2.3% net margin (TTM)

Moderate debt

Insiders bought $600,286 (6M)

Some data

Fair value $4.32 · Overvalued

Quality 27/100

Negative free cash flow

Trails peers (4/12)

Narrow moat 26/100 · thin data

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.50 – $54.22 · fair‑value band $2.07 – $6.74 · the $6.64 price screens above the $4.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Portillo's Inc. owns and operates fast casual restaurants in the United States. The company offers Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages, Italian beef sandwiches, char-grilled burgers, chopped salads, crinkle-cut and cheese fries, homemade chocolate cakes, and chocolate cake shake.

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It also operates a food truck under The Beef Bus name; and a ghost kitchen. In addition, the company provides delivery services through its application and website, as well as third-party delivery platforms. Further, it sells gift cards.

Portillo's Inc. was founded in 1963 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Portillo's Inc (PTLO) currently trades at $6.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.32, 35% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $5.18 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $6.64 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.4600, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $2.07 (bear) to $6.74 (bull), the price of $6.64 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Portillo's Inc reported revenue of $732M in FY2025 versus $535M in FY2021, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was $19.3M in FY2025, compounding +34.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $486M Small · P/E ratio 28.9 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) $0.2300 · Net margin 2.3% · Return on equity 3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 6.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 90% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −35%, PTLO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.07 Fair Value $4.32 Bull $6.74

Price $6.64 · Downside -34.9%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1972 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

EPV $1.46 $1.98 $2.41 74

ROIC Compounder $1.46 $1.98 $2.41 72

Residual Income $4.10 $4.09 $4.32 71

All 14 models by family

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $1.81 $5.67 $7.54 64

Lynch FV $1.24 $1.77 $2.30 61

PEG = 1.0 $1.24 $1.77 $2.30 57

EPV $1.46 $1.98 $2.41 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple $4.40 $5.87 $7.34 63

P/S Multiple $3.40 $4.53 $5.67 58

P/B Multiple $2.07 $2.76 $3.45 55

EV/EBIT $0.5600 $3.74 $6.92 58

EV/EBITDA $1.00 $4.32 $7.65 60

EV/Revenue n/a $0.2100 >$0.8400 50

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $0.3500 $0.4600 $0.6900 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $4.10 $4.09 $4.32 71

ROIC Compounder $1.46 $1.98 $2.41 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $3.63 $5.18 $6.74 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 27

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 34

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 38

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 23

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 34

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 10

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 67

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 79

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 25

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $600,286, on Aug 12, 2026.

BuyEugene I Lee JrDirector3× since Mar 13, 2026: 421,520 shares, avg. $4.94$2.1MAug 12, 2026

Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 49/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

+3.0%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+7.6%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+10.0%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+7.3%

’19

’20

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.

−14.6%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−14.6%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 7%

PTLO screens overvalued: fair value 35% below the price. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive

Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Portillo's and OREO Brand Go Beyond the Ordinary This Halloween by Launching a Trio of Tantalizing Treats Yahoo Finance · Oct 6, 2026
Bloomin' Brands, Cracker Barrel, The Cheesecake Factory, Brinker International, and Portillo's Stocks Trade Down, What You Need To Know Yahoo Finance · Sep 15, 2026

Compare Portillo's Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 200 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −34.9% · Bottom 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 3.5% · Below median

Return on assets 1.2% · Below median

Net margin (12 months) 2.3% · Below median

Operating margin (12 months) 6.7% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 7.0% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.51× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 28.9× · Priciest 25%

P/B 1.04× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (12 months) 0.64× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 8.8× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 36

FUTURE (revenue growth)35 · sector 20

PAST (return on equity)14 · sector 26

HEALTH (low debt)75 · sector 94

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 61

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG	$34.43	$37.87	+10%	vs PTLO
Yum China Holdings YUMC	$49.95	$51.14	+2%	vs PTLO
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR	$77.69	$72.40	−7%	vs PTLO
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI	$226.35	$175.82	−22%	vs PTLO
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ	$334.28	$234.54	−30%	vs PTLO
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH	$183.88	$128.55	−30%	vs PTLO
Starbucks Corporation SBUX	$105.41	$65.63	−38%	vs PTLO
McDonald's Corporation MCD	$276.52	$162.81	−41%	vs PTLO
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM	$161.14	$73.05	−55%	vs PTLO
CAVA Group CAVA	$59.15	$12.01	−80%	vs PTLO

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Portillo's Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

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Frequently asked questions

Is Portillo's Inc (PTLO) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.32 versus a price of $6.64, about 35% lower (overvalued).

What is the fair value of PTLO?

Our model-based fair value for Portillo's Inc is $4.32 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.64.

What is the quality score of PTLO?

Portillo's Inc has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.32 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.07, optimistic scenario $6.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Portillo's Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $4.32, about 35% lower versus a price of $6.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.07, optimistic scenario $6.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

Portillo's Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $761M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Portillo's Inc it is $4.32 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $6.64. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).

Is Portillo's Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 7, 2026, PTLO trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.64, fair value $4.32, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of PTLO?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.32). For Portillo's Inc the two are $2.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Portillo's Inc worth?

The market values Portillo's Inc at about $486M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $6.64; our models calculate a fair value of $4.32 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PTLO?

Our models span a range for Portillo's Inc: cautious scenario $2.07, base $4.32, optimistic $6.74 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $6.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of PTLO?

Portillo's Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.32 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 20.1 (reported for FY2025: 24.6). Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 8.8.

How solid is the balance sheet of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

Balance-sheet figures for Portillo's Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 3.5%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is PTLO from its 52-week high?

Portillo's Inc trades at $6.64, about 5% below its 52-week high of $7.02 and 90% above the low of $3.50 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.32 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Portillo's Inc?

From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Portillo's Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $6.64, calculated fair value $4.32 (−35%), Quality Score 27/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of PTLO calculated?

We run Portillo's Inc through 14 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.32 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Portillo's Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $6.64. Our model-based fair value is $4.32, about 35% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Portillo's Inc right now?

Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($2.07 to $6.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Key figures of Portillo's Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

The market capitalisation of Portillo's Inc is $486M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Portillo's Inc is 0.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

Earnings per share at Portillo's Inc are $0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

The net margin of Portillo's Inc is 2.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Portillo's Inc is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Portillo's Inc is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

The operating margin of Portillo's Inc is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

Revenue at Portillo's Inc is growing +7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Portillo's Inc (PTLO)?

Earnings per share at Portillo's Inc are growing +255% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Portillo's Inc (PTLO) generate?

The free cash flow of Portillo's Inc is −$18.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Portillo's Inc (PTLO) carry?

The net debt of Portillo's Inc is $650M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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