Papa John's International, Inc (PZZA) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.2B

A solid business, but screening 36% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.61). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $24.47 – $120.71 · fair‑value band $11.76 – $17.61 · the $24.47 price screens above the $15.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Papa John's International, Inc (PZZA) currently trades at $24.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.77, implying the stock looks roughly 35.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Papa John's International, Inc generated revenue of $2.0B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue declined 7.7% year over year. Net debt stands at $1.1B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 43.9. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $11.76 (bear case) to $17.61 (bull case); at $24.47, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -36%, PZZA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($20.41) versus Economic Profit ($1.21). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa Johns trademark in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Franchising, North America Commissaries, and International.

Full company description

Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa Johns trademark in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Franchising, North America Commissaries, and International. The company operates dine-in and delivery restaurants. It also offers pizza and other food and beverage products. In addition, the company supplies pizza sauce, dough, food products, paper products, smallware, and cleaning supplies to restaurants. Papa John's International, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Papa John's International, Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was $30.5M in FY2025, compounding −29.0%/yr from FY2021.

PZZA screens 36% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →

Peer Group

Restaurants · 226 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.