Reef Casino Trust (RCT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$182M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +3.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 40% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (A$1.32 to A$6.56). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.51 – A$3.86 · fair‑value band A$1.32 – A$6.56 · the A$3.86 price screens above the A$2.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Reef Casino Trust (RCT) currently trades at A$3.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.31, implying the stock looks roughly 40.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Reef Casino Trust generated revenue of A$26.7M at a net margin of 20.2%. Revenue grew 11.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 46.0%. Net debt stands at A$82.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.32 (bear case) to A$6.56 (bull case); at A$3.86, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -40%, RCT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$5.05) versus Asset-Based (A$0.1600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Reef Casino Trust operates as an owner and lessor of the Reef Hotel Casino complex located in Cairns in North Queensland, Australia. The company provides various dine options comprising Tamarind Restaurant, Soy Kitchen Street Food, Merchant Café, and Flinders Bar and Grill restaurants.
Full company description
Reef Casino Trust operates as an owner and lessor of the Reef Hotel Casino complex located in Cairns in North Queensland, Australia. The company provides various dine options comprising Tamarind Restaurant, Soy Kitchen Street Food, Merchant Café, and Flinders Bar and Grill restaurants. It offers venues, including Lihou bar, Bar36, tamarind private dining, sports arena, events and conferences, and weddings. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Cairns, Australia. Reef Casino Trust operates as a subsidiary of Reef Casino Investments Pty Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Reef Casino Trust reported revenue of A$26.7M in FY2025 versus A$26.9M in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$5.4M in FY2025, compounding −7.4%/yr from FY2021.
RCT screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $44.79 | $52.27 | +17% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$41.44 | +21% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$13.08 | HK$2.05 | -84% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $46.13 | $13.70 | -70% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $97.05 | $69.39 | -29% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $64.75 | $17.09 | -74% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $87.64 | $151.24 | +73% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.91 | $80.92 | +171% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6200 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +11% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $150.14 | $125.02 | -17% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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