Reef Casino Trust (RCT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Reef Casino Trust stock A$2.00, price A$4.61, that is 56.7% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.64 – A$4.65 · fair‑value band A$1.14 – A$2.52 · the A$4.61 price screens above the A$2.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
Follow Reef Casino Trust in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Reef Casino Trust is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Reef Casino Trust operates as an owner and lessor of the Reef Hotel Casino complex located in Cairns in North Queensland, Australia. The company provides various dine options comprising Tamarind Restaurant, Soy Kitchen Street Food, Merchant Café, and Flinders Bar and Grill restaurants.
Show moreShow less
It offers venues, including Lihou bar, Bar36, tamarind private dining, sports arena, events and conferences, and weddings. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Cairns, Australia. Reef Casino Trust operates as a subsidiary of Reef Casino Investments Pty Ltd.
Stock analysis
Reef Casino Trust (RCT) currently trades at A$4.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.00, 57% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$2.42 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$4.61 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$0.8400, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$1.14 (bear) to A$2.52 (bull), the price of A$4.61 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Reef Casino Trust reported revenue of A$26.7M in FY2025 versus A$26.9M in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$5.4M in FY2025, compounding −7.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$230M (≈ $158M) Micro · P/E ratio 21.0 · P/S ratio 6.09 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2200 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 20.8% · Return on equity 53.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −57%, RCT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$1.14Fair Value A$2.00BullA$2.52
Price A$4.61 · Downside -56.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0026 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$1.94A$2.46A$3.0582
Growth DCFA$1.96A$2.44A$2.9680
Owner EarningsA$1.08A$1.37A$1.6978
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$1.94A$2.46A$3.0582
Owner EarningsA$1.08A$1.37A$1.6978
5Y Revenue ExitA$1.15A$1.38A$1.6574
5Y EBITDA ExitA$2.34A$3.47A$4.7275
5Y P/E ExitA$1.77A$2.48A$3.1772
10Y Revenue ExitA$1.49A$1.74A$2.0268
10Y EBITDA ExitA$2.13A$2.94A$3.9069
10Y P/E ExitA$1.83A$2.37A$2.9565
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.7500A$1.61A$2.0466
PEG = 1.0A$0.2500A$0.3500A$0.460057
EPVA$0.9700A$1.08A$1.1774
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$1.30A$1.78A$2.2069
DDM Multi-StageA$1.30A$1.71A$2.0867
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$1.82A$2.43A$3.0363
P/S MultipleA$0.4900A$0.6500A$0.820058
P/B MultipleA$0.7400A$0.9900A$1.2355
EV/EBITA$1.36A$2.37A$3.3864
EV/EBITDAA$1.34A$2.35A$3.3565
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.1200A$0.1700A$0.250054
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$1.96A$2.44A$2.9680
Rev-Margin DCFA$1.15A$1.43A$1.7474
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$0.4700A$0.5600A$0.840075
ROIC CompounderA$0.9900A$1.12A$1.2372
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$1.34A$1.91A$2.4967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.6% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.2% vs −1.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 41%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 63 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−56.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)53.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)20.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)33.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−6.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.0× · Pricier than median
P/B12.98× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.09× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)18.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)94· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Reef Casino Trust (RCT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.00 versus a price of A$4.61, about 57% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RCT?
Our model-based fair value for Reef Casino Trust is A$2.00 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$4.61.
What is the quality score of RCT?
Reef Casino Trust has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.00 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.14, optimistic scenario A$2.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Reef Casino Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.00, about 57% lower versus a price of A$4.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$1.14, optimistic scenario A$2.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
Reef Casino Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$26.0M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Reef Casino Trust pay a dividend?
Reef Casino Trust currently shows a dividend yield of 4.71% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Reef Casino Trust (RCT) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Reef Casino Trust pays a dividend of A$0.217 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2000. The payout ratio is 98.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.82 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Reef Casino Trust would have to grow free cash flow by +21.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.3 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RCT use?
Our models discount Reef Casino Trust at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Reef Casino Trust that is +21.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Reef Casino Trust (RCT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Reef Casino Trust grew +11.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +21.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Reef Casino Trust (RCT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Reef Casino Trust (+21.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.80 %: that much free cash flow Reef Casino Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Reef Casino Trust it is A$2.00 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$4.61. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Reef Casino Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, RCT trades above its calculated fair value: price A$4.61, fair value A$2.00, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RCT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$4.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.00). For Reef Casino Trust the two are A$2.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Reef Casino Trust worth?
The market values Reef Casino Trust at about A$230M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$4.61; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RCT?
Our models span a range for Reef Casino Trust: cautious scenario A$1.14, base A$2.00, optimistic A$2.52 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$4.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RCT?
Reef Casino Trust trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.00 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.9. Other multiples: P/B 13.0, P/S 6.1, EV/EBITDA 9.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Reef Casino Trust (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 53.7%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RCT from its 52-week high?
Reef Casino Trust trades at A$4.61, about 1% below its 52-week high of A$4.65 and 47% above the low of A$3.13 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Reef Casino Trust?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Reef Casino Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$4.61, calculated fair value A$2.00 (−57%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RCT calculated?
We run Reef Casino Trust through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$2.00 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Reef Casino Trust itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$4.61. Our model-based fair value is A$2.00, about 57% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Reef Casino Trust right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (A$1.14 to A$2.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Reef Casino Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
The market capitalisation of Reef Casino Trust is A$230M (≈ $158M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Reef Casino Trust is 6.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
Earnings per share at Reef Casino Trust are A$0.2200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
The dividend yield of Reef Casino Trust is 4.7% (payout 98.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
The net margin of Reef Casino Trust is 20.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Reef Casino Trust is 53.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Reef Casino Trust is 12.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
The operating margin of Reef Casino Trust is 33.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
Revenue at Reef Casino Trust is growing −6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Reef Casino Trust (RCT)?
Earnings per share at Reef Casino Trust are growing −0.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Reef Casino Trust (RCT) carry?
The net debt of Reef Casino Trust is A$82.2M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Reef Casino Trust in the live analysis
One click puts Reef Casino Trust on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 7, 2026