Recticel (RECT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Recticel stock €3.17, price €12.06, that is 73.7% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.78 – €20.42 · fair‑value band €2.31 – €4.13 · the €12.06 price screens above the €3.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Recticel SA/NV, an insulation company, provides thermal and thermo-acoustic solutions in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Slovenia, other European Union countries, the United Kingdom, the United States, the European Union, and internationally.
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It offers thermal insulation boards comprising high-performance polyisocyanurate (PIR) foam used in various residential and non-residential applications; thermal acoustic insulation boards for partition wall applications; and vacuum insulation solutions for building and construction, cold chain packaging, and transportation sectors.
The company also provides insulated panels, including mineral wool insulated panels; modular units, such as floor, column, and ceiling structural elements for use in a range of applications, including commercial, hospitality, education and industrial facilities; and PIR and mineral wool insulated panels.
In addition, it offers products, such as absorption materials, barrier engineered solutions, damping products, gasketing solutions for metal or structural components, and thermal solutions; Soundcoat 360 solution, an acoustic engineering solution that leverages a host of products and services to market and minimize design costs for industrial spaces and original equipment manufacturing applications; and lab services and testing solutions.
The company serves aerospace and aviation, heavy duty and transport vehicles, industrial equipment, electronic equipment and energy infrastructure, building and commercial construction, and medical equipment markets.
It offers thermal acoustic boards under the Simfocor brand; and insulated panels under the Trimo, Trimo MSS, and REX Panels & Profiles brand names. The company was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
Stock analysis
Recticel (RECT) currently trades at €12.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.17, 73.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €5.87 per share, and 1 of the 22 models we run sit above the €12.06 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €1.49, and 21 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €2.31 (bear) to €4.13 (bull), the price of €12.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Recticel reported revenue of €655M in FY2025 versus €449M in FY2021, a compound +9.9%/yr. Reported net income was €10.2M in FY2025, compounding −33.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €681M Small · P/E ratio 31.7 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) €0.3800 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −74%, RECT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€2.31Fair Value €3.17Bull€4.13
Price €12.06 · Downside -73.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0587 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.5% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−25.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−28.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−28.3% vs −0.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+72.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +68.6% a year for the price and +6.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 258 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−73.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.2% · Below median
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−0.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)31.7× · Pricier than median
P/B1.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.96× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow311.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.4× · Pricier than median
PEG0.14× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)82· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)21· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)51· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Recticel Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RECT.BR
Frequently asked questions
Is Recticel (RECT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.17 versus a price of €12.06, about 74% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RECT?
Our model-based fair value for Recticel is €3.17 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €12.06.
What is the quality score of RECT?
Recticel has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Recticel (RECT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.17 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.31, optimistic scenario €4.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Recticel stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.17, about 74% lower versus a price of €12.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.31, optimistic scenario €4.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Recticel (RECT)?
Recticel reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €710M (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Recticel pay a dividend?
Recticel currently shows a dividend yield of 2.57% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Recticel (RECT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Recticel would have to grow free cash flow by +72.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.2 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RECT use?
Our models discount Recticel at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.00, country premium for Belgium. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Recticel that is +72.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Recticel (RECT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Recticel grew +1.2 % a year. The price currently implies +72.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Recticel (RECT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Recticel (+72.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Recticel (RECT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.32 %: that much free cash flow Recticel produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Recticel (RECT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Recticel it is €3.17 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of €12.06. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Recticel stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, RECT trades above its calculated fair value: price €12.06, fair value €3.17, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RECT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€12.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.17). For Recticel the two are €8.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Recticel worth?
The market values Recticel at about €681M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is €12.06; our models calculate a fair value of €3.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RECT?
Our models span a range for Recticel: cautious scenario €2.31, base €3.17, optimistic €4.13 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price €12.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RECT?
Recticel trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.7 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.17 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 32.0 (reported for FY2025: 66.9). Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 1.6, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 11.4.
What is the PEG ratio of RECT?
The PEG ratio of Recticel is 0.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Recticel (RECT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Recticel (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RECT from its 52-week high?
Recticel trades at €12.06, about 12% below its 52-week high of €13.72 and 47% above the low of €8.21 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Recticel?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Johnson Controls International plc, Trane Technologies plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Recticel stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price €12.06, calculated fair value €3.17 (−74%), Quality Score 60/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RECT calculated?
We run Recticel through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Recticel itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Recticel (RECT)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was €12.06. Our model-based fair value is €3.17, about 74% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Recticel right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€4.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Recticel (RECT) come from?
Earnings per share at Recticel grew −0.8 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.2 %, EBIT margin +1.1 %, tax rate +5.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Recticel
How large is the market capitalisation of Recticel (RECT)?
The market capitalisation of Recticel is €681M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Recticel (RECT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Recticel is 0.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Recticel (RECT)?
Earnings per share at Recticel are €0.3800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Recticel (RECT)?
The dividend yield of Recticel is 2.6% (payout 39.0%, on adjusted earnings, reported 81.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Recticel (RECT)?
The net margin of Recticel is 1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Recticel (RECT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Recticel is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Recticel (RECT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Recticel is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Recticel (RECT)?
The operating margin of Recticel is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Recticel (RECT)?
Revenue at Recticel is growing +16.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Recticel (RECT)?
Earnings per share at Recticel are growing −10.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Recticel (RECT) hold?
Recticel holds more cash than debt, €27.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 1, 2026