Repsol S.A. (REP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Repsol S.A. stock €13.90, price €30.21, that is 54.0% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.93 – €31.54 · fair‑value band €8.98 – €21.64 · the €30.21 price screens above the €13.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
Follow Repsol in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Repsol is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Repsol, S.A. operates as a multi-energy company in Spain, Peru, the United States, Portugal, and internationally. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas reserves; and development of low-carbon geological solutions.
Show moreShow less
Its Industrial segment is involved in oil refining; trading, transport, and wholesale of crude oil, natural gas, and fuels; and activities related to hydrogen, sustainable biofuels, and synthetic fuels.
The Customer segment engages in the mobility/gas station business; and sale of electricity and gas, lubricants, and other products, as well as fuel products, such as gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas, and biofuels.
Its Low-Carbon Generation segment is involved in electricity generation from hydroelectric, wind, and photovoltaic sources.
The company also engages in financial services; sector studies; human resources and shared services; decarbonization; carbon dioxide capture and pyrolysis HUB pilot plants; development of production processes, storage, transport, use, consumption, and transformation of hydrogen; promotion, design, construction, and operation of molecular recycling facilities; and production of chemical and petrochemical products.
In addition, it is involved in waste management; construction and operation of oil refinery; research; electricity distribution; maritime transport and inland waterways; LNG regasification; investment in liquefaction plant; safety; electric vehicle charging points; customer and oil product marketing management; payment management at gas stations; development of greenfield and new energy projects; and insurance and reinsurance activities.
Further, the company offers various apps and tools, such as Waylet, Vivit, and WiBLE; and asphalt products. The company was formerly known as Repsol YPF, S.A. and changed its name to Repsol, S.A. in May 2012. Repsol, S.A. was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.
Stock analysis
Repsol S.A. (REP) currently trades at €30.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €13.90, 54% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €19.41 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the €30.21 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €7.97, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €8.98 (bear) to €21.64 (bull), the price of €30.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Repsol S.A. reported revenue of €54.9B in FY2025 versus €49.7B in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.9B in FY2025, compounding −6.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €34.2B Large · P/E ratio 5.4 · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) €5.63 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 21.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 108% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −54%, REP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€8.98Fair Value €13.90Bull€21.64
Price €30.21 · Downside -54.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.89 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+1.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.7% vs 3.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.4% a year for the price and −6.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The integrated model draws strength from record refining margins in a tense supply setting, yet its main weak point remains thin evidence of a durable moat together with low net margins and ROE in a cyclical sector.
Main risk: Low-cost chains such as Ballenoil, Petroprix and Plenergy could capture more customers from Repsol's service stations in Spain, pressuring retail margins and volumes.
Bull case: Repsol could strengthen its multi-energy retail offers and secure long-term industrial contracts to retain customers while diversifying supply sources beyond Venezuela.
Bear case: If low-cost rivals expand further and Venezuela issues persist, Repsol could lose significant retail market share and face cash flow strains from unrecovered receivables, limiting investment flexibility.
Repsol captured record refining margins in the latest quarter as oil prices rose amid supply tensions. At the same time it is directing most of a planned 11.5 billion euro investment program in Spain toward its existing industrial complexes, including new renewable hydrogen and 100 percent renewable fuel plants. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the cash flow strength of the traditional integrated business outlast the costs and risks of this gradual shift in the portfolio?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 42 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−54.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)9.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)20.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)51.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)5.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.36× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.56× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow28.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.48× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)84· sector 53
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)70· sector 71
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Repsol S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/REP
Frequently asked questions
Is Repsol S.A. (REP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €13.90 versus a price of €30.21, about 54% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of REP?
Our model-based fair value for Repsol S.A. is €13.90 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €30.21.
What is the quality score of REP?
Repsol S.A. has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Repsol S.A. (REP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €13.90 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €8.98, optimistic scenario €21.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Repsol S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €13.90, about 54% lower versus a price of €30.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €8.98, optimistic scenario €21.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
Repsol S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €61.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Repsol S.A. pay a dividend?
Repsol S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.48% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Repsol S.A. (REP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Repsol S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +21.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of REP use?
Our models discount Repsol S.A. at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Repsol S.A. that is +21.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Repsol S.A. (REP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Repsol S.A. grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies +21.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Repsol S.A. (REP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Repsol S.A. (+21.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.54 %: that much free cash flow Repsol S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Repsol S.A. it is €13.90 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of €30.21. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Repsol S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, REP trades above its calculated fair value: price €30.21, fair value €13.90, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of REP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€30.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€13.90). For Repsol S.A. the two are €16.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Repsol S.A. worth?
The market values Repsol S.A. at about €34.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is €30.21; our models calculate a fair value of €13.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about REP?
Our models span a range for Repsol S.A.: cautious scenario €8.98, base €13.90, optimistic €21.64 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price €30.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of REP?
Repsol S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.4 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €13.90 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
What is the PEG ratio of REP?
The PEG ratio of Repsol S.A. is 0.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Repsol S.A. (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 21.1%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is REP from its 52-week high?
Repsol S.A. trades at €30.21, about 4% below its 52-week high of €31.54 and 108% above the low of €14.51 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €13.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Repsol S.A.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Repsol S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price €30.21, calculated fair value €13.90 (−54%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of REP calculated?
We run Repsol S.A. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €13.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Repsol S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €30.21. Our model-based fair value is €13.90, about 54% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Repsol S.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€21.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€8.98 to €21.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Repsol S.A. (REP) come from?
Earnings per share at Repsol S.A. grew +6.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin +8.7 %, tax rate −1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Repsol S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
The market capitalisation of Repsol S.A. is €34.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Repsol S.A. is 0.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
Earnings per share at Repsol S.A. are €5.63 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
The dividend yield of Repsol S.A. is 3.5% (payout 18.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
The net margin of Repsol S.A. is 9.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Repsol S.A. is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Repsol S.A. is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Repsol S.A. (REP)?
The operating margin of Repsol S.A. is 20.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Repsol S.A. (REP)?
Revenue at Repsol S.A. is growing +51.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Repsol S.A. (REP)?
Earnings per share at Repsol S.A. are growing +422% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Repsol S.A. (REP) carry?
The net debt of Repsol S.A. is €13.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Repsol S.A. in the live analysis
One click puts Repsol S.A. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 3, 2026