Region Group (RGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Region Group A$0.71, price A$2.24, upside -68.3%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.64 – A$2.43 · fair‑value band A$0.1420 – A$2.08 · the A$2.24 price screens above the A$0.7100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Region Group is an internally managed real estate investment trust (REIT) with 87 convenience-based retail properties, valued at $4,374 million. We remain the largest owner of convenience-based retail centres with 7% share of the market, which is dominated by private owners.
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Region Group is an internally managed real estate investment trust (REIT) with 87 convenience-based retail properties, valued at $4,374 million. We remain the largest owner of convenience-based retail centres with 7% share of the market, which is dominated by private owners. This asset class has proven to be resilient due to its exposure to nondiscretionary retail categories, including long leases with grocery-based anchor tenants. Woolworths Group Limited (Woolworths) and Coles Group Limited (Coles) are our anchor retail partners at more than 97% of our properties. Region (originally SCA Property Group was created out of Woolworths in late 2012, when ownership in a number of retail properties was transferred. Since November 2022, we have been operating under our new name, Region Group. Region Group was incorporated in 2012 in Australia.
Stock analysis
Region Group (RGN) currently trades at A$2.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.7100, implying the stock looks roughly 215.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$2.77 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$2.24 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at A$0.5500, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$0.1420 (bear) to A$2.08 (bull), the price of A$2.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Region Group reported revenue of A$489M in FY2026 versus A$312M in FY2022, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$269M in FY2026, compounding −13.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$2.6B (≈ $1.8B) · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 5.36 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2300 · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin 55.0% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −68%, RGN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.1420Fair Value A$0.7100Bull A$2.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0210 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.4% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12% vs −1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 45%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 137% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+46.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−11.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +42.0% a year for the price and −13.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 93 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−68% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)69% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)56% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)9.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.62× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.65× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF50.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)12· sector 23
PAST (return on equity)37· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)72· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Region Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RGN
Frequently asked questions
Is Region Group (RGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.7100 versus a price of A$2.24, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RGN?
Our model-based fair value for Region Group is A$0.7100 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.24.
What is the quality score of RGN?
Region Group has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Region Group (RGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.7100 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1420, optimistic scenario A$2.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Region Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.7100, about −68% upside versus a price of A$2.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1420, optimistic scenario A$2.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Region Group (RGN)?
Region Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$391M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Region Group pay a dividend?
Region Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Region Group (RGN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Region Group would have to grow free cash flow by +46.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RGN use?
Our models discount Region Group at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Region Group that is +46.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Region Group (RGN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Region Group grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies +46.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Region Group (RGN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Region Group (+46.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Region Group (RGN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.39 %: that much free cash flow Region Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Region Group (RGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Region Group it is A$0.7100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$2.24. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Region Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, RGN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.24, fair value A$0.7100, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.7100). For Region Group the two are A$1.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Region Group worth?
The market values Region Group at about A$2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$2.24; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.7100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RGN?
Our models span a range for Region Group: cautious scenario A$0.1420, base A$0.7100, optimistic A$2.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$2.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RGN?
Region Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.7100 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Region Group (RGN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Region Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RGN from its 52-week high?
Region Group trades at A$2.24, about 8% below its 52-week high of A$2.43 and 9% above the low of A$2.05 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.7100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Region Group?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, Kimco Realty Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Region Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$2.24, calculated fair value A$0.7100 (−68%), Quality Score 58/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RGN calculated?
We run Region Group through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.7100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Region Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Region Group (RGN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$2.24. Our model-based fair value is A$0.7100, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Region Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (A$0.1420 to A$2.08). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Region Group (RGN) come from?
Earnings per share at Region Group grew −8.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin −2.2 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Region Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Region Group (RGN)?
The market capitalisation of Region Group is A$2.6B (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Region Group (RGN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Region Group is 5.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Region Group (RGN)?
Earnings per share at Region Group are A$0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Region Group (RGN)?
The dividend yield of Region Group is 6.3% (payout 61.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Region Group (RGN)?
The net margin of Region Group is 55.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Region Group (RGN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Region Group is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Region Group (RGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Region Group is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Region Group (RGN)?
The operating margin of Region Group is 55.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Region Group (RGN)?
Revenue at Region Group is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Region Group (RGN)?
Earnings per share at Region Group are growing −31.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Region Group (RGN) carry?
The net debt of Region Group is A$1.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 45.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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