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RIOCF fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what RIOCF is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
RIOCF
RIOCF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $5.46 · Strongly overvalued (−63%)
!Quality 52/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +5.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 18.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·7.78% dividend yield
!Moderate moat 48/100
!The models disagree: range $2.90 to $15.12
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.16 – $16.55 · fair‑value band $2.90 – $15.12 · the $14.88 price screens above the $5.46 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust meets the everyday shopping needs of Canadians through the ownership, management and development of necessity-based retail properties in densely populated communities.
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RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust meets the everyday shopping needs of Canadians through the ownership, management and development of necessity-based retail properties in densely populated communities. As at March 31, 2026, our portfolio is comprised of 167 properties with an aggregate net leasable area of approximately 32 million square feet (at RioCan's interest). RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust was established and incorporated on November 30, 1993 in Ontario, Canada.
Stock analysis
RIOCF (RIOCF) currently trades at $14.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.46, implying the stock looks roughly 172.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $16.49 per share, and 5 of the 12 models we run sit above the $14.88 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $6.97, and 7 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.90 (bear) to $15.12 (bull), the price of $14.88 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
RIOCF reported revenue of C$1.5B in FY2025 versus C$1.2B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$69.2M in FY2025, compounding −41.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.7B · P/E ratio 25.2 · P/S ratio 1.18 · EPS (TTM) $0.5900 · Dividend yield 7.8% · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −63%, RIOCF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.90
Fair Value $5.46
Bull $15.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$16.52
$15.21
$10.83
76
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$15.90
$34.97
72
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$7.88
$23.97
69
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$7.88
$23.97
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$15.90
$34.97
72
10Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$1.52
$15.82
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$6.97
$24.05
65
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$3.04
$4.05
$5.06
58
P/B Multiple
$3.04
$4.05
$5.06
55
EV/EBIT
$20.27
$33.93
$47.59
64
EV/EBITDA
$11.02
$21.60
$32.18
64
EV/Revenue
$1.89
$11.58
$21.26
48
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$12.30
$16.49
$24.61
54
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
$7.59
$21.43
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$16.52
$15.21
$10.83
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
52/100
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Profitability
16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−24.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−32.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−32% vs −17%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.52% → 60%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−17.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.8%
RIOCF screens 173% overvalued. Compare with Simon Property Group →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Property Group SPG | $204.83 | $84.26 | −59% |
| Realty Income Corporation O | $59.50 | $82.78 | +39% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €92.90 | €89.06 | −4% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $23.19 | $12.49 | −46% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.28 SGD | 1.31 SGD | −43% |
| Scentre Group SCG | A$3.46 | A$2.37 | −32% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $74.62 | $20.56 | −72% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$37.84 | HK$28.78 | −24% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $114.36 | $41.47 | −64% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $28.73 | $12.34 | −57% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is RIOCF overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.46 versus a price of $14.88, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RIOCF?
Our model-based fair value for RIOCF is $5.46 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.88.
What is the quality score of RIOCF?
RIOCF has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for RIOCF?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.46 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.90, optimistic scenario $15.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the RIOCF stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.46, about −63% upside versus a price of $14.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.90, optimistic scenario $15.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of RIOCF?
RIOCF reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does RIOCF pay a dividend?
RIOCF currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into RIOCF?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, RIOCF would have to grow free cash flow by +29.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RIOCF use?
Our models discount RIOCF at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For RIOCF that is +29.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has RIOCF delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at RIOCF grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies +29.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of RIOCF growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into RIOCF (+29.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of RIOCF?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.65 %: that much free cash flow RIOCF produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of RIOCF?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For RIOCF it is $5.46 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $14.88. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is RIOCF stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, RIOCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.88, fair value $5.46, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RIOCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.46). For RIOCF the two are $9.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is RIOCF worth?
The market values RIOCF at about $4.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $14.88; our models calculate a fair value of $5.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RIOCF?
Our models span a range for RIOCF: cautious scenario $2.90, base $5.46, optimistic $15.12 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $14.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is RIOCF from its 52-week high?
RIOCF trades at $14.88, about 10% below its 52-week high of $16.55 and 28% above the low of $11.59 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to RIOCF?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, Kimco Realty Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is RIOCF stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $14.88, calculated fair value $5.46 (−63%), Quality Score 52/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RIOCF calculated?
We run RIOCF through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. RIOCF itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with RIOCF right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($2.90 to $15.12). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of RIOCF come from?
Earnings per share at RIOCF grew −7.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.6 %, EBIT margin −0.2 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −10.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of RIOCF
How large is the market capitalisation of RIOCF?
The market capitalisation of RIOCF is $4.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of RIOCF?
The price-to-earnings ratio of RIOCF is 25.2. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of RIOCF?
The price-to-sales ratio of RIOCF is 1.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of RIOCF?
Earnings per share at RIOCF are $0.5900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of RIOCF?
The dividend yield of RIOCF is 7.8% (payout 196%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of RIOCF?
The net margin of RIOCF is 4.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of RIOCF?
The return on equity (ROE) of RIOCF is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of RIOCF?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of RIOCF is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of RIOCF?
The operating margin of RIOCF is 48.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at RIOCF?
Revenue at RIOCF is growing +78.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at RIOCF?
Earnings per share at RIOCF are growing +3.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does RIOCF carry?
The net debt of RIOCF is $7.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 38.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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