Redwood Trust Inc (RWT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Redwood Trust Inc $9.98, price $3.72, upside +168.3%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.55 – $8.22 · fair‑value band $5.93 – $12.99 · the $3.72 price screens below the $9.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Redwood Trust, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty finance company in the United States. It operates through four segments: Sequoia Mortgage Banking, CoreVest Mortgage Banking, Redwood Investments, and Legacy Investments.
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Redwood Trust, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty finance company in the United States. It operates through four segments: Sequoia Mortgage Banking, CoreVest Mortgage Banking, Redwood Investments, and Legacy Investments. The Residential Consumer Mortgage Banking segment operates a mortgage loan conduit that acquires residential loans from third-party originators for subsequent sale, securitization, or transfer to its investment portfolio. The CoreVest Mortgage Banking segment operates a platform that originates residential investor loans for subsequent securitization, sale, or transfer into the Redwood Investments portfolio or into joint ventures. This segment also includes various derivative financial instruments that we utilize to manage certain risks associated with our inventory of loans held for sale. The Redwood Investments segment primarily targets investments with sensitivity to housing credit risk, sourced through our operating platforms where control the underwriting and collateral review. Going forward, the Redwood Investments portfolio will focus on retained interests from the company's own securitizations and other investment vehicles, rather than third-party securities, consistent with Redwood's strategic shift toward internally originated investments. The Legacy Investments segment consists of assets no longer aligned with our core strategic objectives, including legacy unsecuritized bridge and term loans, residential re-performing loan securities, and other non-core legacy assets that are in the active process of sale, runoff, or other disposition as part of the accelerated strategic repositioning of our business model. Redwood Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Mill Valley, California.
Stock analysis
Redwood Trust Inc (RWT) currently trades at $3.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.98, implying the stock looks roughly 62.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $10.82 per share, and 3 of the 3 models we run sit above the $3.72 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.26, and 0 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.93 (bear) to $12.99 (bull), the price of $3.72 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Redwood Trust Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $540M in FY2021, a compound +19.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$70.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $624M · P/S ratio 3.72 · EPS (TTM) $−0.8000 · Net margin −6.3% · Return on equity −8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% · Operating margin −4.7% · Revenue growth (YoY) −13.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 168%, RWT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.93Fair Value $9.98Bull $12.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+356.5%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
64.6% (2019) → 95.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside+168% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−55% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)19.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity19.21× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
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Is Redwood Trust Inc (RWT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.98 versus a price of $3.72, about +168% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RWT?
Our model-based fair value for Redwood Trust Inc is $9.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.72.
What is the quality score of RWT?
Redwood Trust Inc has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.93, optimistic scenario $12.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Redwood Trust Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.98, about +168% upside versus a price of $3.72 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.93, optimistic scenario $12.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Redwood Trust Inc it is $9.98 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $3.72. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Redwood Trust Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RWT trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.72, fair value $9.98, a gap of about +168% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RWT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.98). For Redwood Trust Inc the two are $6.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Redwood Trust Inc worth?
The market values Redwood Trust Inc at about $624M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $3.72; our models calculate a fair value of $9.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RWT?
Our models span a range for Redwood Trust Inc: cautious scenario $5.93, base $9.98, optimistic $12.99 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $3.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of RWT?
The PEG ratio of Redwood Trust Inc is 1.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Redwood Trust Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −8.6%, debt of 19.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RWT from its 52-week high?
Redwood Trust Inc trades at $3.72, about 40% below its 52-week high of $6.23 and 5% above the low of $3.55 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Redwood Trust Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Redwood Trust Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $3.72, calculated fair value $9.98 (+168%), Quality Score 39/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RWT calculated?
We run Redwood Trust Inc through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Redwood Trust Inc currently trades 168 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $3.72. Our model-based fair value is $9.98, about +168% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Redwood Trust Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.93). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($5.93 to $12.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Redwood Trust Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
The market capitalisation of Redwood Trust Inc is $624M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Redwood Trust Inc is 3.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
Earnings per share at Redwood Trust Inc are $−0.8000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
The net margin of Redwood Trust Inc is −6.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Redwood Trust Inc is −8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Redwood Trust Inc is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
The operating margin of Redwood Trust Inc is −4.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
Revenue at Redwood Trust Inc is growing −13.4% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)?
Earnings per share at Redwood Trust Inc are growing −52.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Redwood Trust Inc (RWT) generate?
The free cash flow of Redwood Trust Inc is −$10.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Redwood Trust Inc (RWT) carry?
The net debt of Redwood Trust Inc is $21.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026