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Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. BRL 63.53, price BRL 23.00, upside +176.2%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · BR · Home US

SP Some data Sep 24, 2026

Starwood Property Trust, Inc.

S2TW34 · SA

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value R$63.53 · Strongly undervalued (+176.2%)
!Quality 40/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −5.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 60.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!8.3% dividend yield · Payout strained
✓Ranks above peers (8/13)
!Moderate moat 49/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 21 out of 100
!Weak on balance sheet: 10 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$36.69 R$21.81 Fair Value R$63.53 Feb 2022 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

56‑month range R$21.81 – R$36.69 · fair‑value band R$47.64 – R$79.41 · the R$23.00 price screens below the R$63.53 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Commercial and Residential Lending; Infrastructure Lending; Property; and Investing and Servicing.

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Starwood Property Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Commercial and Residential Lending; Infrastructure Lending; Property; and Investing and Servicing. The Commercial and Residential Lending segment originates, acquires, finances, and manages commercial first mortgages, non-agency residential mortgages, subordinated mortgages, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), and residential mortgage-backed securities, as well as other real estate and real estate-related debt investments, including distressed or non-performing loans. Its Infrastructure Lending segment originates, acquires, finances, and manages infrastructure debt investments. The Property segment engages primarily in acquiring and managing equity interests in stabilized and to be stabilized commercial real estate properties, including multifamily properties, multi-tenant medical office net lease properties and diversified single-tenant triple net lease properties that are held for investment. Its Investing and Servicing segment manages and works out problem assets; acquires and manages unrated, investment grade, and non-investment grade rated CMBS comprising subordinated interests of securitization and re-securitization transactions; originates conduit loans for the primary purpose of selling these loans into securitization transactions; and acquires commercial real estate assets that include properties acquired from CMBS trusts. The company qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Starwood Property Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.

Stock analysis

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34) currently trades at R$23.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$63.53, implying the stock looks roughly 63.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of R$100.55 per share, and 8 of the 8 models we run sit above the R$23.00 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$64.13, and 0 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: R$47.64 (bear) to R$79.41 (bull), the price of R$23.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2022, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was $412M in FY2025, compounding −22.1%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap R$10.8B (≈ $2.1B) · P/E ratio 4.6 · P/S ratio 0.99 · EPS (TTM) R$4.92 · Dividend yield 8.3% · Net margin 21.7% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 63% fair-value upside, at 176%, S2TW34 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$47.64 Fair Value R$63.53 Bull R$79.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$2.27 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income R$75.64 R$78.78 R$84.40 73
Growth DCF R$33.47 R$100.55 R$211.65 69
FCF DCF R$25.41 R$95.04 R$219.98 68
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$25.41 R$95.04 R$219.98 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$82.74 R$90.18 R$101.42 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$82.74 R$102.24 R$128.86 65
Multiples
P/S Multiple R$50.16 R$66.89 R$83.61 58
P/B Multiple R$73.91 R$98.55 R$123.18 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$47.86 R$64.13 R$95.72 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$33.47 R$100.55 R$211.65 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$75.64 R$78.78 R$84.40 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 91
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 3
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 10
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−8.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.3%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 7%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.3% a year for the price and +5.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+12.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.9%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside +172.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5.3% · Below median
Return on assets 0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 60.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 17.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 21.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 8.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.80× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.30× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 3.56× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 100
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 41
PAST (return on equity)21 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)10 · sector 0
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 100

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY $20.32 $22.74 +12%
AGNC Investment Corp AGNC $9.45 $23.63 +150%
Rithm Capital Corp RITM $9.12 $12.95 +42%
Dynex Capital, Inc DX $11.34 $10.73 −5%
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR $14.10 $23.05 +63%
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT $12.31 $30.78 +150%
Ellington Financial Inc EFC $11.83 $13.08 +11%
Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC $5.77 $14.43 +150%
Ladder Capital Corp LADR $8.72 $7.60 −13%
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI $6.24 $15.60 +150%

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Starwood Property Trust, Inc. · Fair Value
R$63.53 +64%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Starwood Property Trust, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/S2TW34

Frequently asked questions

Is Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$63.53 versus a price of R$23.00, about +176% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of S2TW34?
Our model-based fair value for Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is R$63.53 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$23.00.
What is the quality score of S2TW34?
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$63.53 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$47.64, optimistic scenario R$79.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Starwood Property Trust, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$63.53, about +176% upside versus a price of R$23.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$47.64, optimistic scenario R$79.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Starwood Property Trust, Inc. pay a dividend?
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +17.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -5.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of S2TW34 use?
Our models discount Starwood Property Trust, Inc. at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Starwood Property Trust, Inc. that is +17.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Starwood Property Trust, Inc. grew -5.1 % a year. The price currently implies +17.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (+17.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 43.43 %: that much free cash flow Starwood Property Trust, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Starwood Property Trust, Inc. it is R$63.53 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$23.00. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Starwood Property Trust, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, S2TW34 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$23.00, fair value R$63.53, a gap of about +176% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of S2TW34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$23.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$63.53). For Starwood Property Trust, Inc. the two are R$40.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Starwood Property Trust, Inc. worth?
The market values Starwood Property Trust, Inc. at about R$10.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$23.00; our models calculate a fair value of R$63.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about S2TW34?
Our models span a range for Starwood Property Trust, Inc.: cautious scenario R$47.64, base R$63.53, optimistic R$79.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$23.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of S2TW34?
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$63.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 3.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 1.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is S2TW34 from its 52-week high?
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. trades at R$23.00, about 31% below its 52-week high of R$33.13 and at the low of R$23.00 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$63.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Starwood Property Trust, Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Rithm Capital Corp, Dynex Capital, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Starwood Property Trust, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$23.00, calculated fair value R$63.53 (+176%), Quality Score 40/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of S2TW34 calculated?
We run Starwood Property Trust, Inc. through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$63.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Starwood Property Trust, Inc. currently trades 64 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$23.00. Our model-based fair value is R$63.53, about +176% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Starwood Property Trust, Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$47.64). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Starwood Property Trust, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
The market capitalisation of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is R$10.8B (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is 0.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
Earnings per share at Starwood Property Trust, Inc. are R$4.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
The dividend yield of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is 8.3% (payout 39.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
The net margin of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is 21.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is 0.4% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
The operating margin of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
Revenue at Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is growing +21.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34)?
Earnings per share at Starwood Property Trust, Inc. are growing −60.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (S2TW34) carry?
The net debt of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. is $12.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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