Saab AB (publ) (SAABF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Saab AB (publ) $22.29, price $61.50, upside -63.8%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.01 – $80.82 · fair‑value band $13.40 – $28.37 · the $61.50 price screens above the $22.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Saab AB (publ) provides products, services, and solutions for military defense, aviation, and civil security markets in Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and internationally. The company operates through Aeronautics, Dynamics, Surveillance, Kockums, and Combitech segments.
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Saab AB (publ) provides products, services, and solutions for military defense, aviation, and civil security markets in Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and internationally. The company operates through Aeronautics, Dynamics, Surveillance, Kockums, and Combitech segments. The Aeronautics segment engages in the manufacture of aerial systems; development of military aviation technology; and conducting of studies of manned and unmanned aircraft for new systems and further development of existing products. Its Dynamics segment offers combat weapons, missile systems, systems for training and simulation, and signature management systems for armed forces in the civil and defense markets. The Surveillance segment provides airborne, ground-based and naval radar, electronic warfare, combat systems, and C4I solutions. Its Kockums segment develops, delivers, and maintains submarines with the Stirling system for air independent propulsion, surface combatants, mine hunting systems, autonomous vessels, torpedoes, and unmanned underwater vehicles. The Combitech segment offers services in systems development, systems integration, information security, systems security, communications, mechanics, technical product information, and logistics, as well as technology consultancy services. Saab AB (publ) was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Saab AB (publ) (SAABF) currently trades at $61.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.29, 63.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $20.17 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $61.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.46, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $13.40 (bear) to $28.37 (bull), the price of $61.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Saab AB (publ) reported revenue of 79.1B SEK in FY2025 versus 39.2B SEK in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was 6.3B SEK in FY2025, compounding +34.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $33.2B · P/E ratio 47.1 · P/S ratio 3.76 · EPS (TTM) $1.28 · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 15.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% · Revenue (TTM) 72.3B SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −64%, SAABF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.40Fair Value $22.29Bull $28.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9679 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+40.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+40.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26.5% vs 15.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 10%
2025 sits 86% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in SEK, Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.7% a year for the price and +15.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−65.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.7% · Above median
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)47.1× · Pricier than median
P/B7.81× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.68× · Pricier than median
P/FCF69.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA35.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.66× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 60
PAST (return on equity)63· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saab AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAABF
Frequently asked questions
Is Saab AB (publ) (SAABF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.29 versus a price of $61.50, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SAABF?
Our model-based fair value for Saab AB (publ) is $22.29 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $61.50.
What is the quality score of SAABF?
Saab AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.29 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.40, optimistic scenario $28.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saab AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.29, about −64% upside versus a price of $61.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.40, optimistic scenario $28.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
Saab AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 72.3B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saab AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +27.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.4 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAABF use?
Our models discount Saab AB (publ) at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.02, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saab AB (publ) that is +27.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saab AB (publ) (SAABF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saab AB (publ) grew +17.4 % a year. The price currently implies +27.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saab AB (publ) (+27.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.46 %: that much free cash flow Saab AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saab AB (publ) it is $22.29 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $61.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saab AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, SAABF trades above its calculated fair value: price $61.50, fair value $22.29, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAABF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($61.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.29). For Saab AB (publ) the two are $39.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saab AB (publ) worth?
The market values Saab AB (publ) at about $33.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $61.50; our models calculate a fair value of $22.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAABF?
Our models span a range for Saab AB (publ): cautious scenario $13.40, base $22.29, optimistic $28.37 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $61.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAABF?
Saab AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.1 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.29 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 7.8, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 35.4.
What is the PEG ratio of SAABF?
The PEG ratio of Saab AB (publ) is 1.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saab AB (publ) (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 15.7%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAABF from its 52-week high?
Saab AB (publ) trades at $61.50, about 24% below its 52-week high of $80.82 and 30% above the low of $47.32 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saab AB (publ)?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saab AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $61.50, calculated fair value $22.29 (−64%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAABF calculated?
We run Saab AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Saab AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $61.50. Our model-based fair value is $22.29, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saab AB (publ) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($13.40 to $28.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF) come from?
Earnings per share at Saab AB (publ) grew +13.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.7 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Saab AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
The market capitalisation of Saab AB (publ) is $33.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saab AB (publ) is 3.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
Earnings per share at Saab AB (publ) are $1.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 47.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
The net margin of Saab AB (publ) is 8.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saab AB (publ) is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saab AB (publ) is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
Revenue at Saab AB (publ) is growing +21.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saab AB (publ) (SAABF)?
Earnings per share at Saab AB (publ) are growing +12.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saab AB (publ) (SAABF) carry?
The net debt of Saab AB (publ) is 11.0B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026