SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SailPoint, Inc. stock $1.77, price $18.39, that is 90.4% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
21‑month range $10.49 – $25.70 · fair‑value band $0.7500 – $2.57 · the $18.39 price screens above the $1.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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SailPoint, Inc. delivers solutions to enable identity security for the enterprise in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally.
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Its solutions enable organizations to establish, control, and automate policies that help define and maintain a robust security posture and achieve regulatory compliance; and address various types of systems and identities, including data and applications, employee identities, non-employee identities, and machine identities, as well as enable smarter access decisions, improve business processes, and provide deeper understanding of identity and access.
The company offers Identity Security Cloud, a cloud-based identity security solution to discover, manage, and secure all enterprise identity types, as well as the data and cloud infrastructure; and IdentityIQ, a customer-hosted identity security solution.
It also provides SailPoint platform, a security platform engineered to unify identity, data, and security intelligence in real time. It serves financial services, media, energy and utilities, technology, life sciences, and healthcare, as well as government agencies and public universities.
The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock analysis
SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) currently trades at $18.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.77, 90% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $1.77 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $18.39 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.13, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.7500 (bear) to $2.57 (bull), the price of $18.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2026 versus $450M in FY2022, a compound +24.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$270M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $11.5B Large · P/S ratio 9.83 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3400 · Net margin −16.9% · Return on equity −2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.8% · Operating margin −18.9% · Revenue (TTM) $1.2B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 14 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −90%, SAIL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.1700 to $2.35). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$0.7500Fair Value $1.77Bull$2.57
Price $18.39 · Downside -90.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $18.2M and none bought.
SaleJames Malcolm HaganDirector4,205 shares at $22.50$94,613Oct 27, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMitra RezvanChief Accounting Officer7× since Jan 6, 2026: 42,721 shares, avg. $17.93$765,827Oct 8, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBrian CarolanChief Financial Officer4× since Jan 6, 2026: 303,080 shares, avg. $16.58$5.0MOct 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMark D. McClainChief Executive Officer, Director4× since Jan 6, 2026: 824,058 shares, avg. $16.72$13.8MOct 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMatt MillsPresident4× since Jan 6, 2026: 295,425 shares, avg. $16.64$4.9MOct 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleChristopher SchmittGeneral Counsel and Secretary4× since Jan 6, 2026: 159,859 shares, avg. $16.59$2.7MOct 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAbby PayneChief People Officer4× since Jan 6, 2026: 143,840 shares, avg. $16.59$2.4MOct 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleChandrasekar GnanasambandamEVP Product & CTO4× since Jan 6, 2026: 120,858 shares, avg. $16.30$2.0MOct 7, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +27.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.2% (2021) → −28.7% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+55.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +52.0% a year for the price and +13.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from SaaS and AI-driven ARR momentum via new autonomous agents for identity governance yet remains limited by sustained net losses and thin evidence of durable advantage.
Main risk: Rivals such as Saviynt with modern cloud platforms or Microsoft Entra ID with integrated offerings could attract customers seeking lower costs and simpler deployments, pressuring SailPoint's pricing and margins in the identity governance market.
Bull case: SailPoint could leverage its new autonomous agents for AI identity governance to differentiate from rivals and capture demand from enterprises struggling with agent security gaps.
Bear case: If customers migrate to lower-cost or more integrated alternatives from Saviynt or Microsoft, SailPoint could lose market share in identity governance and face sustained pressure on its SaaS growth.
SailPoint just rolled out autonomous agents at Navigate 2026 to govern AI and non-human identities in real time, extending its Human and Agentic Fabrics with policy enforcement that uses existing identity context. The move rides strong SaaS and AI-driven ARR momentum yet splits attention between cloud scale and on-premises modernization like IdentityIQ 9.0. Will these tools lock in a lead in agent security before rivals catch up, or will divided development slow overall progress?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 341 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−90.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−16.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−18.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAIL
Frequently asked questions
Is SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.77 versus a price of $18.39, about 90% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SAIL?
Our model-based fair value for SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock is $1.77 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.39.
What is the quality score of SAIL?
SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.77 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7500, optimistic scenario $2.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.77, about 90% lower versus a price of $18.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.7500, optimistic scenario $2.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock would have to grow free cash flow by +55.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.0 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAIL use?
Our models discount SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock that is +55.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock grew +24.0 % a year. The price currently implies +55.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock (+55.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.50 %: that much free cash flow SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock it is $1.77 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $18.39. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, SAIL trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.39, fair value $1.77, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAIL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.77). For SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock the two are $16.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock at about $11.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $18.39; our models calculate a fair value of $1.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAIL?
Our models span a range for SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock: cautious scenario $0.7500, base $1.77, optimistic $2.57 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $18.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
Balance-sheet figures for SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity −2.9%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAIL from its 52-week high?
SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock trades at $18.39, about 18% below its 52-week high of $22.39 and 75% above the low of $10.49 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $18.39, calculated fair value $1.77 (−90%), Quality Score 46/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAIL calculated?
We run SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $18.39. Our model-based fair value is $1.77, about 90% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($0.7500 to $2.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock
How large is the market capitalisation of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
The market capitalisation of SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock is $11.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock is 9.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
Earnings per share at SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock are $−0.3400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
The net margin of SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock is −16.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock is −2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock is −3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
The operating margin of SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock is −18.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL)?
Revenue at SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock is growing +16.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) hold?
SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock holds more cash than debt, $340M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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