Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc $25.82, price $16.75, upside +54.2%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.26 – $22.84 · fair‑value band $16.22 – $36.54 · the $16.75 price screens below the $25.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The company operates through two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group.
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Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies. The company operates through two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group. The Sally Beauty Supply segment offers beauty products, including hair color and care products, skin and nail care products, styling tools, and other beauty products for retail customers, salons, and salon professionals. This segment also provides products under Wella and L'Oreal brands, as well as Clairol, OPI, Wahl, and BaByliss Pro. The Beauty Systems Group segment offers professional beauty products, such as hair color and care products, skin and nail care products, styling tools, and other beauty items directly to salons, and licensed beauty professionals, and salon professionals through its professional-only stores, e-commerce platforms, and sales force, as well as through franchised stores under the Armstrong McCall store name. This segment also sells products under Paul Mitchell and Wella brands, including Matrix, Schwarzkopf, Kenra, Goldwell, Joico, Amika, and Moroccanoil. In addition, it operates company-operated stores, salon business consultants, digital platforms and franchised units in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Chile, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and Germany. Further, the company distributes its products through full-service/exclusive distributors and open-line distributors. Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.
Stock analysis
Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH) currently trades at $16.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.82, implying the stock looks roughly 35.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $37.19 per share, and 20 of the 22 models we run sit above the $16.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.58, and 2 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $16.22 (bear) to $36.54 (bull), the price of $16.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Sally Beauty Holdings Inc reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was $196M in FY2025, compounding −4.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B · P/E ratio 9.3 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) $1.81 · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 23.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.3% · Operating margin 7.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 54%, SBH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $16.22Fair Value $25.82Bull $36.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.78 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.4% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2% vs 2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.5% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Sally Beauty Holdings Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 226 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+52% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.09× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.82 versus a price of $16.75, about +54% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SBH?
Our model-based fair value for Sally Beauty Holdings Inc is $25.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.75.
What is the quality score of SBH?
Sally Beauty Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.22, optimistic scenario $36.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sally Beauty Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.82, about +54% upside versus a price of $16.75 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $16.22, optimistic scenario $36.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
Sally Beauty Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sally Beauty Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SBH use?
Our models discount Sally Beauty Holdings Inc at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sally Beauty Holdings Inc that is +7.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sally Beauty Holdings Inc grew +1.0 % a year. The price currently implies +7.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (+7.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.93 %: that much free cash flow Sally Beauty Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sally Beauty Holdings Inc it is $25.82 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $16.75. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sally Beauty Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SBH trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.75, fair value $25.82, a gap of about +54% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SBH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.82). For Sally Beauty Holdings Inc the two are $9.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sally Beauty Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Sally Beauty Holdings Inc at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $16.75; our models calculate a fair value of $25.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SBH?
Our models span a range for Sally Beauty Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $16.22, base $25.82, optimistic $36.54 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $16.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SBH?
Sally Beauty Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 2.2, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
What is the PEG ratio of SBH?
The PEG ratio of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc is 0.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 23.9%, debt of 1.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SBH from its 52-week high?
Sally Beauty Holdings Inc trades at $16.75, about 1% below its 52-week high of $17.00 and 42% above the low of $11.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sally Beauty Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sally Beauty Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $16.75, calculated fair value $25.82 (+54%), Quality Score 59/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SBH calculated?
We run Sally Beauty Holdings Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $25.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Sally Beauty Holdings Inc currently trades 54 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $16.75. Our model-based fair value is $25.82, about +54% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sally Beauty Holdings Inc right now?
Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($16.22 to $36.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH) come from?
Earnings per share at Sally Beauty Holdings Inc grew +1.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.0 %, EBIT margin −4.7 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
The market capitalisation of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc is 0.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
Earnings per share at Sally Beauty Holdings Inc are $1.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
The net margin of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc is 23.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc is 12.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
The operating margin of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
Revenue at Sally Beauty Holdings Inc is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)?
Earnings per share at Sally Beauty Holdings Inc are growing +13.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH) carry?
The net debt of Sally Beauty Holdings Inc is $1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026