Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) $4.33, price $11.27, upside -61.6%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.72 – $17.26 · fair‑value band $3.43 – $5.13 · the $11.27 price screens above the $4.33 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) operates in the forest business in Sweden, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Forest, Wood, Pulp, Containerboard, and Renewable Energy.
Show more
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) operates in the forest business in Sweden, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Forest, Wood, Pulp, Containerboard, and Renewable Energy. The company offers various sawn wood products; wood solutions for industrial buildings comprising construction timber, outer panels, dimensionally planed timber, laths, base rafters, planks, and shaped timber products; wood solutions for merchants, including joists, battens, untreated and painted outer panels, as well as pressure-impregnated wood products; logistics services consisting of marine and land transportation services, such as forwarding services using RoRo vessels, container express, and road and rail; and wood pellets. It also provides pulp products comprising bleached softwood kraft pulp and chemical thermomechanical pulp; packaging paper/kraftliner products for consumer durables, electronics, hazardous goods, industrial products, fruit and vegetables, and frozen food; refined and unrefined solid biofuels, and liquid biofuels; and green products, such as tall oil, turpentine, district heating, and green electricity. In addition, the company engages in the management and harvesting of forest land, which includes the provision of hunting and fishing privileges; sourcing and transporting of timber; and wind power operations. It exports its products. Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) was incorporated in 1915 and is headquartered in Sundsvall, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY) currently trades at $11.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.33, 61.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $9.64 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $11.27 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.75, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.43 (bear) to $5.13 (bull), the price of $11.27 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) reported revenue of 20.4B SEK in FY2025 versus 18.8B SEK in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 3.0B SEK in FY2025, compounding −15.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.9B · P/E ratio 24.0 · P/S ratio 3.54 · EPS (TTM) $0.4100 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 14.7% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at −62%, SCABY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.43Fair Value $4.33Bull $5.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −15.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.7% vs −7.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 21%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 15.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in SEK, Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.0% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (9 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside−49.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)12.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)24.0× · Pricier than median
P/B0.78× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)3.53× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF70.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA22.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)64· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.33 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $11.27, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SCABY?
Our model-based fair value for Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) is $4.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $11.27.
What is the quality score of SCABY?
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.43, optimistic scenario $5.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.33, about −62% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $11.27 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.43, optimistic scenario $5.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.5B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) pay a dividend?
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +32.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SCABY use?
Our models discount Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) that is +32.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) grew +2.1 % a year. The price currently implies +32.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (+32.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.42 %: that much free cash flow Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) it is $4.33 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $11.27. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SCABY trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.27, fair value $4.33, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SCABY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.33). For Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) the two are $6.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) worth?
The market values Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) at about $7.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $11.27; our models calculate a fair value of $4.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SCABY?
Our models span a range for Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ): cautious scenario $3.43, base $4.33, optimistic $5.13 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $11.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SCABY?
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 22.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SCABY from its 52-week high?
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) trades at $11.27, about 18% below its 52-week high of $13.72 and 16% above the low of $9.72 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ)?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $11.27, calculated fair value $4.33 (−62%), Quality Score 49/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SCABY calculated?
We run Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $11.27. Our model-based fair value is $4.33, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY) come from?
Earnings per share at Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) grew −6.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −17.3 %, EBIT margin +10.2 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
The market capitalisation of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) is $7.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) is 3.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
Earnings per share at Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) are $0.4100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
The dividend yield of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) is 3.2% (payout 88.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
The net margin of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) is 14.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
Revenue at Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) is growing −5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY)?
Earnings per share at Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) are growing −52.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCABY) carry?
The net debt of Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) is 13.0B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) in the live analysis
One click puts Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Sep 23, 2026