Selena FM S.A. (SEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Selena FM S.A. PLN 51.33, price PLN 56.80, upside -9.6%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.82 PLN – 58.40 PLN · fair‑value band 39.02 PLN – 65.07 PLN · the 56.80 PLN price screens above the 51.33 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Selena FM S.A., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes construction chemicals and general construction accessories in European Union, Eastern Europe, Asia, North America, and South America.
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Selena FM S.A., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes construction chemicals and general construction accessories in European Union, Eastern Europe, Asia, North America, and South America. The company offers polyurethane foams, sealants, adhesives, thermal insulation systems, flooring systems, ceramic tile systems, interior wall systems, construction mortars, and waterproofing materials, as well as other products, such as building tapes, wood preservatives, chemical anchors, tools, and accessories under the Tytan, Artelit, Quilosa, TACK-R, Praxa, Cool-R, and Matizol names. It also engages in the research and development, intellectual property management, e-commerce activities, electricity generation, and production of gaseous fuels. Selena FM S.A. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Wroclaw, Poland. Selena FM S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Syrius Investments S.à R.L.
Stock analysis
Selena FM S.A. (SEL) currently trades at 56.80 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 51.33 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 10.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 90.97 PLN per share, and 20 of the 25 models we run sit above the 56.80 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 23.97 PLN, and 5 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 39.02 PLN (bear) to 65.07 PLN (bull), the price of 56.80 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Selena FM S.A. reported revenue of 1.8B PLN in FY2025 versus 1.7B PLN in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was 115M PLN in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.2B PLN (≈ $320M) · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) 5.43 PLN · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −10%, SEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 39.02 PLNFair Value 51.33 PLNBull 65.07 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.15 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10% vs 16%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 709 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Selena FM S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SEL
Frequently asked questions
Is Selena FM S.A. (SEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 51.33 PLN versus a price of 56.80 PLN, about −10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SEL?
Our model-based fair value for Selena FM S.A. is 51.33 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 56.80 PLN.
What is the quality score of SEL?
Selena FM S.A. has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 51.33 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 39.02 PLN, optimistic scenario 65.07 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Selena FM S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 51.33 PLN, about −10% upside versus a price of 56.80 PLN (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 39.02 PLN, optimistic scenario 65.07 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
Selena FM S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Selena FM S.A. pay a dividend?
Selena FM S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Selena FM S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -1.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SEL use?
Our models discount Selena FM S.A. at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Selena FM S.A. that is -1.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Selena FM S.A. (SEL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Selena FM S.A. grew +5.4 % a year. The price currently implies -1.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Selena FM S.A. (SEL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Selena FM S.A. (-1.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.25 %: that much free cash flow Selena FM S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Selena FM S.A. it is 51.33 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 56.80 PLN. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Selena FM S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SEL trades above its calculated fair value: price 56.80 PLN, fair value 51.33 PLN, a gap of about −10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (56.80 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (51.33 PLN). For Selena FM S.A. the two are 5.47 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Selena FM S.A. worth?
The market values Selena FM S.A. at about 1.2B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 56.80 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 51.33 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SEL?
Our models span a range for Selena FM S.A.: cautious scenario 39.02 PLN, base 51.33 PLN, optimistic 65.07 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 56.80 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SEL?
Selena FM S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 51.33 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Selena FM S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SEL from its 52-week high?
Selena FM S.A. trades at 56.80 PLN, about 3% below its 52-week high of 58.40 PLN and 61% above the low of 35.34 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 51.33 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Selena FM S.A.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Selena FM S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 56.80 PLN, calculated fair value 51.33 PLN (−10%), Quality Score 71/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SEL calculated?
We run Selena FM S.A. through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 51.33 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Selena FM S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 56.80 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 51.33 PLN, about −10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Selena FM S.A. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Selena FM S.A. (SEL) come from?
Earnings per share at Selena FM S.A. grew +15.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Selena FM S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
The market capitalisation of Selena FM S.A. is 1.2B PLN (≈ $320M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Selena FM S.A. is 0.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
Earnings per share at Selena FM S.A. are 5.43 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
The dividend yield of Selena FM S.A. is 4.4% (payout 46.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
The net margin of Selena FM S.A. is 6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Selena FM S.A. is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Selena FM S.A. is 10.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
The operating margin of Selena FM S.A. is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
Revenue at Selena FM S.A. is growing +2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Selena FM S.A. (SEL)?
Earnings per share at Selena FM S.A. are growing +12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Selena FM S.A. (SEL) carry?
The net debt of Selena FM S.A. is 38.4M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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