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Selena FM S.A (SEL) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · PL · Market cap 1.1B PLN

SF Selena FM S.A SEL · WAR
Price48.00 PLN
Fair Value51.33 PLN
Upside+6.9%
Quality71/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 6.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
5.13% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Moderate moat 51/100
Evidence: High Range 38.50 PLN – 64.17 PLN Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 30 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from 90.41 PLN to 51.33 PLN (−43.2%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −2.8% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from 38.50 PLN (bear) to 64.17 PLN (bull), base 51.33 PLN. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 71/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

57.53 PLN 14.82 PLN Fair Value 51.33 PLN Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 14.82 PLN – 57.53 PLN · fair‑value band 38.50 PLN – 64.17 PLN · the 48.00 PLN price screens below the 51.33 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Selena FM S.A (SEL) currently trades at 48.00 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 51.33 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 6.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Selena FM S.A generated revenue of 1.8B PLN at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 3.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.2%. Net debt stands at 38.4M PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 38.50 PLN (bear case) to 64.17 PLN (bull case); at 48.00 PLN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at 7%, SEL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 63.56 PLN 85.11 PLN 111.14 PLN 80
Residual Income 33.58 PLN 40.32 PLN 75.44 PLN 76
Rev-Margin DCF 69.09 PLN 107.31 PLN 149.36 PLN 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 62.73 PLN 86.86 PLN 117.57 PLN 38
Owner Earnings 47.71 PLN 66.08 PLN 89.45 PLN 31
5Y Revenue Exit 69.09 PLN 106.83 PLN 153.81 PLN 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 67.71 PLN 104.33 PLN 145.60 PLN 41
5Y P/E Exit 60.68 PLN 91.59 PLN 122.74 PLN 38
10Y Revenue Exit 63.80 PLN 95.17 PLN 134.97 PLN 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 64.93 PLN 93.61 PLN 129.42 PLN 37
10Y P/E Exit 60.88 PLN 85.67 PLN 113.95 PLN 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 36.16 PLN 95.16 PLN 124.26 PLN 54
PEG = 1.0 18.24 PLN 26.06 PLN 33.88 PLN 46
EPV 61.10 PLN 69.46 PLN 76.43 PLN 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 19.43 PLN 34.53 PLN 48.21 PLN 70
DDM Multi-Stage 19.43 PLN 28.26 PLN 36.45 PLN 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 67.81 PLN 90.41 PLN 113.02 PLN 63
P/S Multiple 67.81 PLN 90.41 PLN 113.02 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 67.81 PLN 90.41 PLN 113.02 PLN 55
EV/EBIT 90.34 PLN 120.52 PLN 150.70 PLN 53
EV/EBITDA 81.20 PLN 108.33 PLN 135.47 PLN 54
EV/Revenue 78.26 PLN 111.89 PLN 145.52 PLN 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 17.89 PLN 23.97 PLN 35.78 PLN 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 63.56 PLN 85.11 PLN 111.14 PLN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 69.09 PLN 107.31 PLN 149.36 PLN 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 33.58 PLN 40.32 PLN 75.44 PLN 76
ROIC Compounder 63.65 PLN 75.98 PLN 88.90 PLN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 54.12 PLN 77.31 PLN 100.50 PLN 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (91.59 PLN) versus Asset-Based (23.97 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.8B PLN
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.7%
Net margin 6.4%
Return on equity 15.2%
Free cash flow 151M PLN FY2025
P/E ratio 9.7
More key figures
Operating margin 8.2%
EPS (TTM) 5.43 PLN
EPS growth (YoY) +28.4%
Net debt 38.4M PLN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 67
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Selena FM S.A., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes construction chemicals and general construction accessories in European Union, Eastern Europe, Asia, North America, and South America.

Full company description

Selena FM S.A., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes construction chemicals and general construction accessories in European Union, Eastern Europe, Asia, North America, and South America. The company offers polyurethane foams, sealants, adhesives, thermal insulation systems, flooring systems, ceramic tile systems, interior wall systems, construction mortars, and waterproofing materials, as well as other products, such as building tapes, wood preservatives, chemical anchors, tools, and accessories under the Tytan, Artelit, Quilosa, TACK-R, Praxa, Cool-R, and Matizol names. It also engages in the research and development, intellectual property management, e-commerce activities, electricity generation, and production of gaseous fuels. Selena FM S.A. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Wroclaw, Poland. Selena FM S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Syrius Investments S.à R.L.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Selena FM S.A reported revenue of 1.8B PLN in FY2025 versus 1.7B PLN in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was 115M PLN in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.8B PLN
Latest YoY
+1.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.3%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.4%
Revenue +1.0%/yr
FY21 1.7B PLN
FY22 2.0B PLN
FY23 1.8B PLN
FY24 1.8B PLN
FY25 1.8B PLN
Net income +2.9%/yr
FY21 103M PLN
FY22 112M PLN
FY23 50.1M PLN
FY24 85.9M PLN
FY25 115M PLN
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) +15.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.6 pp

of which total revenue +6.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.4 pp

EBIT margin +3.5 pp
Tax rate +1.3 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +4.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Selena FM S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SEL

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 673 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +7% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Revenue growth 2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.1% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.14× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.37× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.16× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 1.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 43 · sector 0
FUTURE 12 · sector 19
PAST 60 · sector 23
HEALTH 93 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 25

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Linde plc LIN $489.98 $222.03 -55%
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 181.50 TWD 255.83 TWD +41%
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥70.04 ¥68.03 -3%
Novozymes A/S NSISB kr 428.20 kr 179.66 -58%
Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,689 ₹668.81 -75%
Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS ₹18,236 ₹2,793 -85%
Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND ₹1,560 ₹351.84 -77%
PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA 1,805 IDR 2,888 IDR +60%
Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA ₹7,115 ₹757.93 -89%
Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT ₹493.70 ₹164.29 -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Selena FM S.A (SEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 51.33 PLN versus a price of 48.00 PLN, about +7% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SEL?
Our model-based fair value for Selena FM S.A is 51.33 PLN (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 48.00 PLN.
What is the quality score of SEL?
Selena FM S.A has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Selena FM S.A (SEL)?
Selena FM S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8B PLN (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SEL?
The net profit margin of Selena FM S.A is about 6.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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