SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of SENCO GOLD LTD ₹596, price ₹317, upside +87.7%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range ₹180.77 – ₹6,958 · fair‑value band ₹326.01 – ₹753.67 · the ₹317.40 price screens below the ₹595.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Senco Gold Limited engages in the manufacture and trading of jewelry and articles made of gold, silver, platinum, and other precious and semi-precious stones in India. It also manufactures diamond jewelry. In addition, the company provides costume jewelry, gold and silver coins, and silver kitchenware.
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Senco Gold Limited engages in the manufacture and trading of jewelry and articles made of gold, silver, platinum, and other precious and semi-precious stones in India. It also manufactures diamond jewelry. In addition, the company provides costume jewelry, gold and silver coins, and silver kitchenware. It sells its products under the Senco Gold & Diamonds trademark. The company operates owned and franchised showrooms, as well as online platforms. Senco Gold Limited was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Kolkata, India.
Stock analysis
SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO) currently trades at ₹317.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹595.69, implying the stock looks roughly 46.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹1,251 per share, and 13 of the 17 models we run sit above the ₹317.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹102.76, and 4 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ₹326.01 (bear) to ₹753.67 (bull), the price of ₹317.40 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
SENCO GOLD LTD reported revenue of ₹84.3B in FY2026 versus ₹35.3B in FY2022, a compound +24.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹5.7B in FY2026, compounding +45.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹52.0B (≈ $540M) · P/E ratio 9.1 · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) ₹34.86 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 6.8% · Return on equity 25.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 88%, SENCO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹326.01Fair Value ₹595.69Bull ₹753.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹16.87 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.5% vs 21.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 11%
2026 sits 192% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Luxury Goods · 119 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+87.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)6.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth67.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
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Is SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹595.69 versus a price of ₹317.40, about +88% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SENCO?
Our model-based fair value for SENCO GOLD LTD is ₹595.69 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹317.40.
What is the quality score of SENCO?
SENCO GOLD LTD has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹595.69 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹326.01, optimistic scenario ₹753.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SENCO GOLD LTD stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹595.69, about +88% upside versus a price of ₹317.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹326.01, optimistic scenario ₹753.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
SENCO GOLD LTD reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹96.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does SENCO GOLD LTD pay a dividend?
SENCO GOLD LTD currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.55% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SENCO GOLD LTD it is ₹595.69 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of ₹317.40. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SENCO GOLD LTD stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, SENCO trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹317.40, fair value ₹595.69, a gap of about +88% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SENCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹317.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹595.69). For SENCO GOLD LTD the two are ₹278.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SENCO GOLD LTD worth?
The market values SENCO GOLD LTD at about ₹52.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is ₹317.40; our models calculate a fair value of ₹595.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SENCO?
Our models span a range for SENCO GOLD LTD: cautious scenario ₹326.01, base ₹595.69, optimistic ₹753.67 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price ₹317.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SENCO?
SENCO GOLD LTD trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.1 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹595.69 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for SENCO GOLD LTD (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 25.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SENCO from its 52-week high?
SENCO GOLD LTD trades at ₹317.40, about 24% below its 52-week high of ₹418.65 and 14% above the low of ₹278.85 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹595.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SENCO GOLD LTD?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Compagnie Financière Richemont SA, Christian Dior SE, Titan Company, Kering SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SENCO GOLD LTD stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price ₹317.40, calculated fair value ₹595.69 (+88%), Quality Score 44/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SENCO calculated?
We run SENCO GOLD LTD through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹595.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SENCO GOLD LTD currently trades 47 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹317.40. Our model-based fair value is ₹595.69, about +88% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SENCO GOLD LTD right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹326.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (₹326.01 to ₹753.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO) come from?
Earnings per share at SENCO GOLD LTD grew +18.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin +5.7 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of SENCO GOLD LTD
How large is the market capitalisation of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
The market capitalisation of SENCO GOLD LTD is ₹52.0B (≈ $540M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SENCO GOLD LTD is 0.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
Earnings per share at SENCO GOLD LTD are ₹34.86 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
The dividend yield of SENCO GOLD LTD is 0.6% (payout 5.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
The net margin of SENCO GOLD LTD is 6.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SENCO GOLD LTD is 25.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SENCO GOLD LTD is 11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
The operating margin of SENCO GOLD LTD is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
Revenue at SENCO GOLD LTD is growing +67.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO)?
Earnings per share at SENCO GOLD LTD are growing −3.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO) generate?
The free cash flow of SENCO GOLD LTD is −₹5.8B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does SENCO GOLD LTD (SENCO) carry?
The net debt of SENCO GOLD LTD is ₹21.8B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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