S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
13‑month range $14.76 – $27.03 · fair‑value band $16.66 – $27.76 · the $14.84 price screens below the $22.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 13, 2026.
S.F. Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated logistics services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Express and Large Items, Same-City Instant Delivery, and Supply Chain and International.
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S.F. Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated logistics services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Express and Large Items, Same-City Instant Delivery, and Supply Chain and International. It offers time-sensitive and economy express deliveries, as well as international, bulk, cold chain, and pharmaceutical shipping; same-city instant and last-mile delivery services; international express delivery, international freight forwarding, agency, and supply chain services, as well as warehousing and distribution services. The company also provides technology services, including smart express delivery, smart life, smart business, and smart supply chain software, as well as smart hardware; and supply chain solutions for automotive, technology, industrial equipment, consumer goods, retail food and catering, life sciences and pharmaceuticals, finance and insurance, and government and enterprise services sectors. In addition, it is involved in air cargo and mail transportation; technical maintenance and development services; business information and enterprise management consulting; value-added telecommunications services; management of e-commerce industrial parks; driving services; factoring business; financing and wealth management; retail; leasing; property management; scientific research and technical services; postal services; and asset, capital, and investment management. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR (SFHOY) currently trades at $14.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.21, implying the stock looks roughly 33.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $221.47 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $14.84 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $50.82, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $16.66 (bear) to $27.76 (bull), the price of $14.84 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR reported revenue of 308B CNY in FY2025 versus 207B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was 11.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +27.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $19.4B · P/E ratio 11.0 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) $1.34 · Dividend yield 6.0% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 50%, SFHOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $16.66Fair Value $22.21Bull $27.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3168 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+26.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 5%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 203 stocks
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Is S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.21 versus a price of $14.84, about +50% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SFHOY?
Our model-based fair value for S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR is $22.21 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.84.
What is the quality score of SFHOY?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.21 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.66, optimistic scenario $27.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.21, about +50% upside versus a price of $14.84 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $16.66, optimistic scenario $27.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $313B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR pay a dividend?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -21.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +10.4 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SFHOY use?
Our models discount S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR that is -21.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR grew +10.4 % a year. The price currently implies -21.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR (-21.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.14 %: that much free cash flow S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR it is $22.21 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $14.84. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, SFHOY trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.84, fair value $22.21, a gap of about +50% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SFHOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.21). For S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR the two are $7.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR worth?
The market values S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR at about $19.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $14.84; our models calculate a fair value of $22.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SFHOY?
Our models span a range for S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR: cautious scenario $16.66, base $22.21, optimistic $27.76 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $14.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SFHOY?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0.
What is the PEG ratio of SFHOY?
The PEG ratio of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR is 0.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SFHOY from its 52-week high?
S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR trades at $14.84, about 53% below its 52-week high of $31.66 and 1% above the low of $14.66 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $14.84, calculated fair value $22.21 (+50%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SFHOY calculated?
We run S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($16.66). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
The market capitalisation of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR is $19.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR is 0.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
Earnings per share at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR are $1.34 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
The dividend yield of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR is 6.0% (payout 66.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
The net margin of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
The operating margin of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
Revenue at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR is growing +6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY)?
Earnings per share at S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR are growing +11.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. (SFHOY) carry?
The net debt of S.F. Holding Co. Ltd. ADR is $3.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 13, 2026