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Data-driven stock valuation

Showa Denko KK ADR (SHWDY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Showa Denko KK ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $22.0B · ISIN US8253842095

At a glance

SD Showa Denko KK ADR logo Showa Denko KK ADR SHWDY · US
Price$97.00
Fair Value$17.59
Upside−81.9% ⚠
Quality48/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Below-average quality, and trading another 452% above our fair value of $17.59.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Showa Denko KK ADR is $17.59 per share against a price of $97.00, so the fair value sits 82% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.7% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·0.33% dividend yield
!Trails peers (2/14)
!Narrow moat 35/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 22 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 7 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range $10.74 to $17.67

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $17.05 to $17.59 (+3.2%) since Aug 28, 2026. Share price −12.8% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$123.00 $7.31 Fair Value $17.59 Aug 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.31 – $123.00 · fair‑value band $10.74 – $17.67 · the $97.00 price screens above the $17.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Showa Denko KK ADR (SHWDY) currently trades at $97.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.59, implying the stock looks roughly 451.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 93/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Showa Denko KK ADR generated revenue of ¥1.3T at a net margin of 2.7%. Revenue declined 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.5%. Net debt stands at ¥727B. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $10.74 (bear) to $17.67 (bull), the price of $97.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 326% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −82%, SHWDY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF n/a n/a $193.75 77
Residual Income $2,915 $2,917 $2,695 76
Growth DCF n/a n/a $85.41 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF n/a n/a $193.75 77
5Y Revenue Exit n/a $992.70 $2,834 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $1,379 $4,311 $7,623 71
5Y P/E Exit n/a n/a $839.84 68
10Y Revenue Exit n/a $331.97 $1,922 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $328.97 $2,577 $5,416 61
10Y P/E Exit n/a n/a $467.04 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1,144 $2,707 $3,487 65
PEG = 1.0 $468.56 $669.37 $870.18 57
EPV n/a n/a $349.89 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $625.49 $1,086 $1,656 67
DDM Multi-Stage $625.49 $928.82 $1,263 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $2,144 $2,859 $3,574 63
P/S Multiple $2,144 $2,859 $3,574 58
P/B Multiple $2,144 $2,859 $3,574 55
EV/EBIT $689.98 $1,868 $3,046 61
EV/EBITDA $3,775 $5,982 $8,189 66
EV/Revenue $218.68 $1,532 $2,845 47
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1,932 $2,589 $3,864 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF n/a n/a $85.41 75
Rev-Margin DCF n/a $990.92 $2,561 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $2,915 $2,917 $2,695 76
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a $349.89 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $1,653 $2,362 $3,070 67

Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($2,917) versus Earnings-Based ($669.37). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 97.0
P/S ratio 2.09 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.00 price ÷ EPS = P/E 97.0
Dividend yield 0.3% payout 32.0%
Net margin 2.2% FY2025
Return on equity 5.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 7.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥1.3T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −4.1% 3y avg +0.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +57.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ¥24.7B FY2025
Net debt ¥727B FY2025 · ≈ 29.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 27
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 96
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 87
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Resonac Holdings Corporation operates as a chemical company in Japan and internationally. It operates through the Semiconductor and Electronic Materials, Mobility, Innovation Enabling Materials, Chemicals, and Crasus Chemical segments.

Full company description

Resonac Holdings Corporation operates as a chemical company in Japan and internationally. It operates through the Semiconductor and Electronic Materials, Mobility, Innovation Enabling Materials, Chemicals, and Crasus Chemical segments. The company offers gases and solvents, abatement equipment systems and surface treatments, CMP slurries, and anti-charging materials; semiconductor-related materials, display and sensor-related materials, and films; base and photosensitive materials for PWBs; hard disks, SiCs, and optical semiconductors for use as electronic device components; and molded plastics/sheet-formed, powder metal, and aluminum products for automotives. It provides lithium-ion batteries and mechanical carbon; ceramics, resins, cosmetic ingredients, monomers, adhesives, tapes, and chromatography products; industrial gases, and elastomers. In addition, the company offers polyimides; HD media; friction materials; plastic molded; aluminum gravity casting products; packaging/containers; electrical insulating epoxy resin molded products; zipper bags and tapes; titanium oxide and alumina; and elastic polishing grindstone. Further, it provides petrochemical and organic chemicals; polypropylene and polyethylene; liquefied carbon dioxide, dry ice, and gas-related equipment; liquefied oxygen, nitrogen, and argon; molecular sieve; graphite electrodes; plasters, fireproofing pipes, and wall sidings; cement and moisture removal sheets; industrial materials; and FRP, coated sand, and separating mediums. Additionally, the company engages in leasing personnel computers and other business equipment; outsourcing of salary, welfare, and finance-related business; and synthesis, analysis, and SDS preparation services. The company was formerly known as Showa Denko K.K. and changed its name to Resonac Holdings Corporation in January 2023. The company was incorporated in 1939 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Showa Denko KK ADR reported revenue of ¥1.4T in FY2025 versus ¥1.4T in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥30.4B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
¥1.4T
Latest YoY
+1.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−13.4%
Dividend yield0.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −19.6% vs 10Y 21.6%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2.0% (2020) → 4.3% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop211% (2009) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in JPY
Revenue −0.1%/yr
FY21 ¥1.4T
FY22 ¥1.4T
FY23 ¥1.3T
FY24 ¥1.4T
FY25 ¥1.4T
Net income
FY21 −¥12.1B
FY22 ¥32.4B
FY23 −¥19.0B
FY24 ¥73.5B
FY25 ¥30.4B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +23.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.9 %

of which total revenue +6.4 % · buybacks/dilution −2.4 %

EBIT margin +2.7 %
Tax rate +7.5 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +7.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

SHWDY screens 452% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation →

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Showa Denko KK ADR · Fair Value
$17.59 −452%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Showa Denko KK ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHWDY

Peer Group

Chemicals · 341 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −82% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.11× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 97.0× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 0.9× · Cheaper than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Showa Denko KK ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+33.8 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+7.7 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+3.2 %
FCF yield on price0.92 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.5 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE0 · sector 21
PAST22 · sector 20
HEALTH44 · sector 94
DIVIDEND7 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation 2010 49.50 SAR 18.13 SAR −63%
A. Schulman, Inc SLMNP $849.00 $203.64 −76%
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 ¥24.49 ¥20.17 −18%
Dow Inc DOW $30.51 $21.03 −31%
Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 ¥41.32 ¥21.62 −48%
Rongsheng Petrochemical Co 002493 ¥13.76 ¥2.39 −83%
Zangge Mining Company 000408 ¥78.04 ¥20.99 −73%
Ganfeng Lithium Group 002460 ¥52.53 ¥16.17 −69%
PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT 1,770 IDR 1,567 IDR −11%
Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 ¥18.87 ¥17.09 −9%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Showa Denko KK ADR (SHWDY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.59 versus a price of $97.00, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SHWDY?
Our model-based fair value for Showa Denko KK ADR is $17.59 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $97.00.
What is the quality score of SHWDY?
Showa Denko KK ADR has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Showa Denko KK ADR (SHWDY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.59 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.74, optimistic scenario $17.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Showa Denko KK ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.59, about −82% upside versus a price of $97.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.74, optimistic scenario $17.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Showa Denko KK ADR (SHWDY)?
Showa Denko KK ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.3T (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SHWDY?
The net profit margin of Showa Denko KK ADR is about 2.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Showa Denko KK ADR pay a dividend?
Showa Denko KK ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Showa Denko KK ADR (SHWDY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Showa Denko KK ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +33.8 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHWDY use?
Our models discount Showa Denko KK ADR at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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