Showa Denko KK (SHWDY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Showa Denko KK stock $12.15, price $83.82, upside -85.5%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.16 – $123.00 · fair‑value band $8.02 – $12.15 · the $83.82 price screens above the $12.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Resonac Holdings Corporation operates as a chemical company in Japan and internationally. It operates through the Semiconductor and Electronic Materials, Mobility, Innovation Enabling Materials, Chemicals, and Crasus Chemical segments.
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The company offers gases and solvents, abatement equipment systems and surface treatments, CMP slurries, and anti-charging materials; semiconductor-related materials, display and sensor-related materials, and films; base and photosensitive materials for PWBs; hard disks, SiCs, and optical semiconductors for use as electronic device components; and molded plastics/sheet-formed, powder metal, and aluminum products for automotives.
It provides lithium-ion batteries and mechanical carbon; ceramics, resins, cosmetic ingredients, monomers, adhesives, tapes, and chromatography products; industrial gases, and elastomers.
In addition, the company offers polyimides; HD media; friction materials; plastic molded; aluminum gravity casting products; packaging/containers; electrical insulating epoxy resin molded products; zipper bags and tapes; titanium oxide and alumina; and elastic polishing grindstone.
Further, it provides petrochemical and organic chemicals; polypropylene and polyethylene; liquefied carbon dioxide, dry ice, and gas-related equipment; liquefied oxygen, nitrogen, and argon; molecular sieve; graphite electrodes; plasters, fireproofing pipes, and wall sidings; cement and moisture removal sheets; industrial materials; and FRP, coated sand, and separating mediums.
Additionally, the company engages in leasing personnel computers and other business equipment; outsourcing of salary, welfare, and finance-related business; and synthesis, analysis, and SDS preparation services.
The company was formerly known as Showa Denko K.K. and changed its name to Resonac Holdings Corporation in January 2023. The company was incorporated in 1939 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Showa Denko KK (SHWDY) currently trades at $83.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.15, 85.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $17.38 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $83.82 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.07, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $8.02 (bear) to $12.15 (bull), the price of $83.82 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Showa Denko KK ADR reported revenue of ¥1.4T in FY2025 versus ¥1.4T in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥30.4B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $20.7B Large · P/E ratio 44.3 · P/S ratio 0.96 · EPS (TTM) $1.89 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 132% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −86%, SHWDY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.6400 to $29.26). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$8.02Fair Value $12.15Bull$12.15
Price $83.82 · Upside -85.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.20 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFn/a$0.9900>$3.9677
Residual Income$17.47$17.33$17.9976
Growth DCFn/a$0.8900>$3.5675
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFn/a$0.9900>$3.9677
5Y Revenue Exitn/a$7.34$18.3569
5Y EBITDA Exit$9.48$26.99$46.6971
5Y P/E Exitn/a$0.6400>$2.5668
10Y Revenue Exitn/a$4.31$13.7964
10Y EBITDA Exit$3.95$17.25$33.9263
10Y P/E Exitn/an/a$5.4161
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$6.95$16.46$21.2065
PEG = 1.0$2.85$4.07$5.2957
EPVn/an/a$0.800068
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$3.61$6.06$8.8767
DDM Multi-Stage$3.61$5.26$6.9967
Multiples
P/E Multiple$13.04$17.38$21.7363
P/S Multiple$13.04$17.38$21.7358
P/B Multiple$21.79$29.06$36.3255
EV/EBITn/a$4.25$11.4161
EV/EBITDA$15.84$29.26$42.6865
EV/Revenuen/a$2.20>$8.8050
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$4.84$6.49$9.6954
Growth DCF
Growth DCFn/a$0.8900>$3.5675
Rev-Margin DCFn/a$7.43$17.0369
Economic Profit
Residual Income$17.47$17.33$17.9976
ROIC Compoundern/an/a$0.800068
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$10.05$14.36$18.6767
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19.6% vs 21.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+47.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +44.0% a year for the price and −0.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Narrower focus on higher-value semiconductor and electronics materials offers scope for stronger returns, yet thin margins and high leverage remain the core constraints.
Main risk: Greater cyclical swings in semiconductor and electronics demand would directly pressure volumes and margins in the remaining higher-value segments.
Resonac has completed the spin-off of its petrochemical business. The remaining operations now center on higher-value materials for semiconductors and electronics. Does the narrower focus unlock better performance or expose the company to greater cyclical swings?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 335 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−85.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.1% · Above median
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)13.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.11× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)44.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.63× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.35× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow131.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA19.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)75· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)44· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Showa Denko KK ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHWDY
Frequently asked questions
Is Showa Denko KK (SHWDY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.15 versus a price of $83.82, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SHWDY?
Our model-based fair value for Showa Denko KK ADR is $12.15 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $83.82.
What is the quality score of SHWDY?
Showa Denko KK ADR has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.15 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.02, optimistic scenario $12.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Showa Denko KK ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.15, about −86% upside versus a price of $83.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.02, optimistic scenario $12.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
Showa Denko KK ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.4T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Showa Denko KK ADR pay a dividend?
Showa Denko KK ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 0.49% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Showa Denko KK ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +47.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHWDY use?
Our models discount Showa Denko KK ADR at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.15, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Showa Denko KK ADR that is +47.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Showa Denko KK (SHWDY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Showa Denko KK ADR grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies +47.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Showa Denko KK ADR (+47.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.93 %: that much free cash flow Showa Denko KK ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Showa Denko KK ADR it is $12.15 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $83.82. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Showa Denko KK ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, SHWDY trades above its calculated fair value: price $83.82, fair value $12.15, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHWDY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($83.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.15). For Showa Denko KK ADR the two are $71.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Showa Denko KK ADR worth?
The market values Showa Denko KK ADR at about $20.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $83.82; our models calculate a fair value of $12.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHWDY?
Our models span a range for Showa Denko KK ADR: cautious scenario $8.02, base $12.15, optimistic $12.15 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $83.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHWDY?
Showa Denko KK ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.3 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.6, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 19.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Showa Denko KK ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 1.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHWDY from its 52-week high?
Showa Denko KK ADR trades at $83.82, about 32% below its 52-week high of $123.00 and 132% above the low of $36.09 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Showa Denko KK ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Rongsheng Petrochemical Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Showa Denko KK ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $83.82, calculated fair value $12.15 (−86%), Quality Score 39/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHWDY calculated?
We run Showa Denko KK ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Showa Denko KK ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $83.82. Our model-based fair value is $12.15, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Showa Denko KK ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY) come from?
Earnings per share at Showa Denko KK ADR grew +23.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.9 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate +7.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Showa Denko KK ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
The market capitalisation of Showa Denko KK ADR is $20.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Showa Denko KK ADR is 0.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
Earnings per share at Showa Denko KK ADR are $1.89 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
The dividend yield of Showa Denko KK ADR is 0.5% (payout 21.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
The net margin of Showa Denko KK ADR is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Showa Denko KK ADR is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Showa Denko KK ADR is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
The operating margin of Showa Denko KK ADR is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
Revenue at Showa Denko KK ADR is growing +15.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Showa Denko KK (SHWDY)?
Earnings per share at Showa Denko KK ADR are growing +170% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Showa Denko KK (SHWDY) carry?
The net debt of Showa Denko KK ADR is ¥727B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 29.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 22, 2026