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Data-driven stock valuation

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $3.6B · ISIN US8101861065

At a glance

SM Scotts Miracle-Gro Company logo Scotts Miracle-Gro Company SMG · US
Price$56.90
Fair Value$26.23
Upside−53.9%
Quality63/100

A solid business, but trading 117% above our fair value of $26.23.

As of Sep 5, 2026, the fair value of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is $26.23 per share against a price of $56.90, so the fair value sits 54% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.2% net margin
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
·4.64% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Weak on future: 25 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $19.48 to $40.42

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 21 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Share price −8.6% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($40.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($19.48 to $40.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$167.63 $34.30 Fair Value $26.23 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $34.30 – $167.63 · fair‑value band $19.48 – $40.42 · the $56.90 price screens above the $26.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) currently trades at $56.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.23, implying the stock looks roughly 116.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $42.43 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $56.90 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $16.45, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Scotts Miracle-Gro Company generated revenue of $3.5B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −47.6%. Net debt stands at $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Scenario range: $19.48 (bear) to $40.42 (bull), the price of $56.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −54%, SMG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 11 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7940 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $11.98 $29.41 $53.57 76
Growth DCF $13.39 $29.83 $51.66 75
Owner Earnings n/a n/a $4.93 73
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $11.98 $29.41 $53.57 76
Owner Earnings n/a n/a $4.93 73
5Y Revenue Exit $15.48 $40.71 $72.08 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $13.22 $36.78 $63.17 71
5Y P/E Exit $0.3000 $14.27 $28.12 64
10Y Revenue Exit $12.18 $33.90 $59.89 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $12.32 $31.33 $53.70 65
10Y P/E Exit $4.48 $16.62 $29.38 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $16.97 $34.65 $43.68 66
EPV $9.49 $16.45 $22.45 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $23.29 $33.47 $43.69 69
DDM Multi-Stage $23.29 $32.45 $42.60 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $31.82 $42.43 $53.03 63
P/S Multiple $31.82 $42.43 $53.03 58
EV/EBIT $30.12 $51.70 $73.27 64
EV/EBITDA $21.30 $39.93 $58.56 64
EV/Revenue $21.50 $45.53 $69.57 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $13.39 $29.83 $51.66 75
Rev-Margin DCF $15.48 $41.33 $68.83 69
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $10.67 $19.78 $29.22 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $23.47 $33.52 $43.58 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($42.43) versus Earnings-Based ($16.45). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 16.4
P/S ratio 0.70 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $3.48 price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4
Dividend yield 4.6% payout 75.9%
Net margin 4.3% FY2025
Return on equity −47.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 27.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $3.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.0% 3y avg −4.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +8.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $274M FY2025
Net debt $2.3B FY2025 · ≈ 8.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 26
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 29
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 55
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of products for lawn, garden care, and indoor and hydroponic gardening in the United States and internationally.

Full company description

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of products for lawn, garden care, and indoor and hydroponic gardening in the United States and internationally. The company provides lawn care products, comprising lawn fertilizers, clover and grass seed products, spreaders, and other durable products, as well as lawn-related weed, pest, and disease control products; and gardening and landscape products, which include water-soluble and continuous-release plant foods, potting mixes, garden soils, mulches and ground cover products, plant-related pest and disease control products, organic garden products, and live goods and seeding solutions. It also offers hydroponic products that help users to grow plants, flowers, and vegetables using little or no soil; lighting systems and components; insect, rodent, and weed control products for home areas; and non-selective weed killer products. The company sells its products under the Scotts, Turf Builder, Grower's Edge, EZ Seed, PatchMaster, Thick'R Lawn, GrubEx, EdgeGuard, Whirl, Wizz, Miracle-Gro, LiquaFeed, Shake "N Feed, Hyponex, Earthgro, Miracle-Gro Organic, CAN-FAN, CAN-FILTERS, EcoPlus, Bug B Gon, Nature Scapes, Ortho, Miracle-Gro Performance Organics, Miracle-Gro Organic Choice, Whitney Farms, Ortho Max, Home Defense, Mother Earth, Botanicare, General Hydroponics, CYCO, Gavita, Agrolux, HydroLogic Purification System, Gro Pro, AeroGarden, Titan, Tomcat, Ortho Weed B Gon, Roundup, Groundclear, and Alchemist brands. It serves home centers, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, large hardware chains, independent hardware stores, nurseries, garden centers, e-commerce platforms, and food and drug stores, as well as indoor gardening and hydroponic distributors, retailers, and growers. The company was formerly known as The Scotts Company. The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Marysville, Ohio.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company reported revenue of $3.4B in FY2025 versus $4.9B in FY2021, a compound −8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $145M in FY2025, compounding −27.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.4B
Latest YoY
−3.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (35Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−16.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−21.3%
Dividend yield4.6%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −21.3% vs 10Y −0.7%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14.2% (2020) → 10.5% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop188% (2022) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue −8.8%/yr
FY21 $4.9B
FY22 $3.9B
FY23 $3.6B
FY24 $3.6B
FY25 $3.4B
Net income −27.0%/yr
FY21 $513M
FY22 −$438M
FY23 −$380M
FY24 −$34.9M
FY25 $145M

SMG screens 117% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMG

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Agricultural Inputs · 175 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −56% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 28% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.4× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.05× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 13.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 10.1× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.89× · Cheaper than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Scotts Miracle-Gro Company deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+11.2 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years-3.7 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+3.2 %
FCF yield on price8.20 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models11.7 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 21
FUTURE25 · sector 45
PAST0 · sector 25
HEALTH100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND93 · sector 40

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

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Nutrien Ltd NTR C$103.71 C$113.16 +9%
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 ¥27.65 ¥21.26 −23%
CF Industries Holdings CF $133.35 $161.00 +21%
SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 129.60 SAR 127.31 SAR −2%
Yara International ASA YAR kr 437.20 kr 630.39 +44%
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 ¥31.58 ¥42.12 +33%
The Mosaic Company MOS $25.85 $28.68 +11%
Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 ¥45.86 ¥38.01 −17%
ICL Group ICL $5.47 $2.98 −46%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.23 versus a price of $56.90, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMG?
Our model-based fair value for Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is $26.23 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $56.90.
What is the quality score of SMG?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.23 (as of Sep 5, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.48, optimistic scenario $40.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Scotts Miracle-Gro Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.23, about −54% upside versus a price of $56.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $19.48, optimistic scenario $40.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SMG?
The net profit margin of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is about 3.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Scotts Miracle-Gro Company pay a dividend?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Scotts Miracle-Gro Company would have to grow free cash flow by +11.2 % per year for ten years (discount rate 11.7 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.7 % per year. As of Sep 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMG use?
Our models discount Scotts Miracle-Gro Company at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Scotts Miracle-Gro Company it is $26.23 per share (as of Sep 5, 2026), against a price of $56.90. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Scotts Miracle-Gro Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 5, 2026, SMG trades above its calculated fair value: price $56.90, fair value $26.23, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($56.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.23). For Scotts Miracle-Gro Company the two are $30.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Scotts Miracle-Gro Company worth?
The market values Scotts Miracle-Gro Company at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 5, 2026). Per share that is $56.90; our models calculate a fair value of $26.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMG?
Our models span a range for Scotts Miracle-Gro Company: cautious scenario $19.48, base $26.23, optimistic $40.42 per share (as of Sep 5, 2026, price $56.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMG?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Sep 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $26.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
What is the PEG ratio of SMG?
The PEG ratio of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is 0.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (as of Sep 5, 2026): return on equity −47.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMG from its 52-week high?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company trades at $56.90, about 20% below its 52-week high of $71.55 and 13% above the low of $50.49 (as of Sep 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Scotts Miracle-Gro Company?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Scotts Miracle-Gro Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 5, 2026: price $56.90, calculated fair value $26.23 (−54%), Quality Score 63/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMG calculated?
We run Scotts Miracle-Gro Company through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $26.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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