São Martinho S.A (SMTO3) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · BR · Market cap R$5.0B
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from R$33.52 to R$26.26 (−21.7%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −3.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 78% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$15.99). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (R$15.99 to R$46.15). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$12.82 – R$44.60 · fair‑value band R$15.99 – R$46.15 · the R$14.77 price screens below the R$26.26 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
São Martinho S.A (SMTO3) currently trades at R$14.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$26.26, implying the stock looks roughly 77.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, São Martinho S.A generated revenue of R$7.4B at a net margin of 11.3%. Revenue grew 29.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. Net debt stands at R$9.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$15.99 (bear case) to R$46.15 (bull case); at R$14.77, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at 78%, SMTO3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (R$51.53) versus Dividend Discount (R$6.03). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
São Martinho S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of sugar, ethanol, and other sugarcane byproducts in Brazil. The company operates through Sugar, Ethanol, Corm Ethanol, Electric Power, Real Estate Businesses, Yeast, and Other Products segment.
Full company description
São Martinho S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of sugar, ethanol, and other sugarcane byproducts in Brazil. The company operates through Sugar, Ethanol, Corm Ethanol, Electric Power, Real Estate Businesses, Yeast, and Other Products segment. It offers a range of raw sugar; hydrated ethanol, which is used in tanks of cars powered by ethanol; anhydrous ethanol that is used as a gasoline additive in gasoline-powered vehicles; and industrial ethanol, which is primarily used in the production of paints, cosmetics, and alcoholic beverages. The company also generates electricity from sugarcane bagasse; provides byproducts, including yeast used in animal feed; offers fusel oil used as a solvent and pure amyl ethanol; and SMartLiO, a substitute for soybean oil used in the production of biofuels, paint, and chemicals, as well as Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles, an animal nutrition for ruminants, pigs, horses, birds, fish, and pets. In addition, it is involved in the cultivation of sugarcane; development of real estate properties; import and export of goods, products, and raw materials; agricultural productions; and investment in other companies. The company was founded in 1914 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil. São Martinho S.A. is a subsidiary of LJN Participações S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
São Martinho S.A reported revenue of R$7.4B in FY2026 versus R$5.7B in FY2022, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$836M in FY2026, compounding −13.3%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $489.98 | $222.03 | -55% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 181.50 TWD | 255.83 TWD | +41% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥70.04 | ¥68.03 | -3% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 428.20 | kr 179.66 | -58% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,689 | ₹668.81 | -75% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,236 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,560 | ₹351.84 | -77% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 1,805 IDR | 2,888 IDR | +60% |
| Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA | ₹7,115 | ₹757.93 | -89% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹493.70 | ₹164.29 | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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