SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd stock $8.81, price $14.78, that is 40.4% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
23‑month range $11.93 – $17.36 · fair‑value band $4.69 – $15.71 · the $14.78 price screens above the $8.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a logistics company worldwide. It operates through Logistics; Commercial and Trading, Life Support; Business support; and Product businesses segments.
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The company engages in trucking, rail transport, marine transport, and international transport handling, warehousing business; and packaging and transportation of raw materials and products.
It is also involved in oil, and commercial sales; paper products and daily necessities sales; and trading business.
Additionally, the company offers living support, such as general wholesale and retail store business; nursing care business; elderly care facility management business; and sports facility management, etc.
In addition, it provides information processing outsourcing, outsourcing of administrative processing, and call center business. Further, the company engages in manufacture and sales of food, storage, transportation, medical, and other containers, as well as offers packaging films and sheets.
The company was formerly known as Senko Co., Ltd. and changed its name to SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. in April 2017. SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF) currently trades at $14.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.81, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.86 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the $14.78 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.67, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $4.69 (bear) to $15.71 (bull), the price of $14.78 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd reported revenue of ¥900B in FY2026 versus ¥623B in FY2022, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥19.3B in FY2026, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $2.5B Small · P/E ratio 19.7 · P/S ratio 0.42 · EPS (TTM) $0.7500 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% above its previous 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −40%, SNKCF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$4.69Fair Value $8.81Bull$15.71
Price $14.78 · Downside -40.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2720 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.5% a year for the price and +3.6% for the forecasts.
Compare SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 215 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SNKCF
Frequently asked questions
Is SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.81 versus a price of $14.78, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SNKCF?
Our model-based fair value for SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd is $8.81 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.78.
What is the quality score of SNKCF?
SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.81 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.69, optimistic scenario $15.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.81, about 40% lower versus a price of $14.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.69, optimistic scenario $15.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥931B (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd pay a dividend?
SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.12% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd pays a dividend of $0.313 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.1%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. The payout ratio is 43.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.79 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +24.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.5 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SNKCF use?
Our models discount SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd that is +24.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd grew +9.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +24.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (+24.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.79 %: that much free cash flow SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd it is $8.81 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $14.78. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, SNKCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.78, fair value $8.81, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SNKCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.81). For SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd the two are $5.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd worth?
The market values SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd at about $2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $14.78; our models calculate a fair value of $8.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SNKCF?
Our models span a range for SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd: cautious scenario $4.69, base $8.81, optimistic $15.71 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $14.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SNKCF?
SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 8.9%, debt of 1.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SNKCF from its 52-week high?
SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd trades at $14.78, about 11% above its previous 52-week high of $13.34 and 32% above the low of $11.17 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $14.78, calculated fair value $8.81 (−40%), Quality Score 46/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SNKCF calculated?
We run SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $8.81 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was $14.78. Our model-based fair value is $8.81, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd right now?
Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($4.69 to $15.71). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
The market capitalisation of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd is $2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd is 0.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
Earnings per share at SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd are $0.7500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
The dividend yield of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd is 2.1% (payout 41.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
The net margin of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd is 2.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
The operating margin of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
Revenue at SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd is growing +14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF)?
Earnings per share at SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd are growing +30.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd (SNKCF) carry?
The net debt of SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd is ¥239B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 16.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 10, 2026