Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc stock $1.55, price $2.67, that is 41.9% below the price, quality 19 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.17 – $542.20 · fair‑value band $1.16 – $1.94 · the $2.67 price screens above the $1.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 13, 2026.
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Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc., an aerospace and space travel company, focuses on the development, manufacture, and operation of spaceships and related technologies.
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It engages in the design and development, manufacturing, ground and flight testing, spaceflight operation, and post-flight maintenance of spaceflight systems for private individuals, researchers, and government agencies. Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Tustin, California.
Stock analysis
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE) currently trades at $2.67, while our estimate is $1.55, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.
Scenario range: $1.16 (bear) to $1.94 (bull), the price of $2.67 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc reported revenue of $1.5M in FY2025 versus $3.3M in FY2021, a compound −17.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$279M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $405M Small · EPS (TTM) $−3.19 · Return on equity −75.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −38.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −25,084% · Revenue (TTM) $1.0M · Revenue growth (YoY) −67.0% · Free cash flow −$438M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 5 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −42%, SPCE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value
Bear$1.16Fair Value $1.55Bull$1.94
Price $2.67 · Downside -41.9%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality19/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth22
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow8
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength36
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum18
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $49,800, on May 19, 2026.
BuyDiana S. StrandbergDirector20,000 shares at $2.49$49,800May 19, 2026
Plus 15 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−78.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.6%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
’17
’18
’19
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−115,665.5% (2020) → −18,335.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 263 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score19 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−41.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−34.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−67.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.01× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.48× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 65
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)50· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $1.55 versus a price of $2.67, about 42% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SPCE?
Our estimate for Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is $1.55 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.67.
What is the quality score of SPCE?
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 19/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $1.55 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Cautious scenario $1.16, optimistic scenario $1.94. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $1.55, about 42% lower versus a price of $2.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.16, optimistic scenario $1.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)?
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.0M (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc it is $1.55 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of $2.67.
Is Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, SPCE trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.67, fair value $1.55, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPCE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.55). For Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc the two are $1.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc at about $405M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is $2.67; our models calculate a fair value of $1.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPCE?
Our models span a range for Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $1.16, base $1.55, optimistic $1.94 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price $2.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity −75.1%, debt of 1.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 19/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPCE from its 52-week high?
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc trades at $2.67, about 64% below its 52-week high of $7.52 and 23% above the low of $2.17 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price $2.67, calculated fair value $1.55 (−42%), Quality Score 19/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was $2.67. Our estimate is $1.55, about 42% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (19/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)?
The market capitalisation of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is $405M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)?
Earnings per share at Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc are $−3.19. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is −75.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is −38.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)?
The operating margin of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is −25,084% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)?
Revenue at Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is growing −67.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE) generate?
The free cash flow of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is −$438M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE) carry?
The net debt of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is $230M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 13, 2026
