Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · MX · Market cap 5.7B MXN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −26.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (30.86 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (15.50 MXN to 30.86 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 39.48 MXN – 22,042 MXN · fair‑value band 15.50 MXN – 30.86 MXN · the 44.54 MXN price screens above the 20.71 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) currently trades at 44.54 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 20.71 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 53.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 1.3M MXN. Revenue declined 50.8% year over year. Net debt stands at 179M MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 15.50 MXN (bear case) to 30.86 MXN (bull case); at 44.54 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at -53%, SPCE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 20 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc., an aerospace and space travel company, focuses on the development, manufacture, and operation of spaceships and related technologies.
Full company description
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc., an aerospace and space travel company, focuses on the development, manufacture, and operation of spaceships and related technologies. It engages in the design and development, manufacturing, ground and flight testing, spaceflight operation, and post-flight maintenance of spaceflight systems for private individuals, researchers, and government agencies. Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Tustin, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Virgin Galactic Holdings reported revenue of 1.5M MXN in FY2025 versus 3.3M MXN in FY2021, a compound −17.2%/yr. Reported net income was −279M MXN in FY2025.
SPCE screens 53% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 225 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $365.33 | $116.71 | -68% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $222.76 | $88.37 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $231.20 | $49.09 | -79% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥33.89 | ¥21.90 | -35% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 496,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -45% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 1,156,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -50% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 346.75 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -62% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 680.10 | kr 212.84 | -69% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 330.10 | kr 101.07 | -69% |
| HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering Co 009540 | 371,500 KRW | 643,950 KRW | +73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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