Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Suburban Propane Partners LP stock $15.33, price $17.18, that is 10.8% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.90 – $20.09 · fair‑value band $9.65 – $23.50 · the $17.18 price screens above the $15.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail marketing and distribution of propane, renewable propane, renewable natural gas, fuel oil, and refined fuels in the United States.
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It operates through four segments: Propane, Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels, Natural Gas and Electricity, and All Other.
The Propane segment is involved in the retail distribution of propane for space heating, water heating, cooking, and clothes drying for use as a motor fuel in internal combustion engines to power over-the-road vehicles, forklifts, and stationary engines, as well as to fire furnaces as a cutting gas to the industrial customers; and for tobacco curing, crop drying, poultry brooding, and weed control in the agricultural markets.
It also engages in the wholesale distribution of propane to industrial end users.
Its Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels segment engages in the retail distribution of fuel oil, diesel, kerosene, and gasoline to residential and commercial customers for use in primarily as a source of heat in homes and buildings.
The Natural Gas and Electricity segment markets natural gas and electricity to residential and commercial customers in the deregulated energy markets.
Its All Other segment sells, installs, and services a range of home comfort equipment, including whole-house heating products, air cleaners, humidifiers, and space heaters. The company serves residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers.
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. was founded in 1945 and is based in Whippany, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) currently trades at $17.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.33, 11% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $26.51 per share, and 11 of the 22 models we run sit above the $17.18 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $11.15, and 11 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.65 (bear) to $23.50 (bull), the price of $17.18 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Suburban Propane Partners LP reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was $107M in FY2025, compounding −3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B Small · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 0.82 · EPS (TTM) $1.93 · Dividend yield 7.6% · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 19.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −11%, SPH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.65Fair Value $15.33Bull$23.50
Price $17.18 · Downside -10.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6300 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $58,710 and none bought.
SaleJane SwiftDirector512 shares at $16.49$8,443Sep 29, 2026
SaleBryon L KoepkeVP,General Counsel & Secretary2,848 shares at $17.65$50,267Aug 31, 2026
SaleMatthew J ChaninDirector10,000 shares at $19.31$193,100Dec 2, 202510b5-1 plan
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.1% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.1% vs 1.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.7% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (83 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Suburban Propane Partners LP with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−10.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.02× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.91× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.82× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.0× · Cheaper than median
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Is Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.33 versus a price of $17.18, about 11% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SPH?
Our model-based fair value for Suburban Propane Partners LP is $15.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.18.
What is the quality score of SPH?
Suburban Propane Partners LP has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.65, optimistic scenario $23.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Suburban Propane Partners LP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.33, about 11% lower versus a price of $17.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.65, optimistic scenario $23.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
Suburban Propane Partners LP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Suburban Propane Partners LP pay a dividend?
Suburban Propane Partners LP currently shows a dividend yield of 7.57% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Suburban Propane Partners LP pays a dividend of $1.30 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 3, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1996. The payout ratio is 55.3% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 67.4%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.32 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Suburban Propane Partners LP would have to grow free cash flow by +18.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPH use?
Our models discount Suburban Propane Partners LP at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Suburban Propane Partners LP that is +18.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Suburban Propane Partners LP grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +18.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Suburban Propane Partners LP (+18.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.98 %: that much free cash flow Suburban Propane Partners LP produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Suburban Propane Partners LP it is $15.33 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $17.18. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Suburban Propane Partners LP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, SPH trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.18, fair value $15.33, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.33). For Suburban Propane Partners LP the two are $1.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Suburban Propane Partners LP worth?
The market values Suburban Propane Partners LP at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $17.18; our models calculate a fair value of $15.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPH?
Our models span a range for Suburban Propane Partners LP: cautious scenario $9.65, base $15.33, optimistic $23.50 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $17.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SPH?
Suburban Propane Partners LP trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.33 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 8.8 (reported for FY2025: 10.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 16.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.9, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
What is the PEG ratio of SPH?
The PEG ratio of Suburban Propane Partners LP is 1.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Suburban Propane Partners LP (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 19.2%, debt of 2.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPH from its 52-week high?
Suburban Propane Partners LP trades at $17.18, about 14% below its 52-week high of $20.09 and 6% above the low of $16.26 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Suburban Propane Partners LP?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Suburban Propane Partners LP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $17.18, calculated fair value $15.33 (−11%), Quality Score 51/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPH calculated?
We run Suburban Propane Partners LP through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $15.33 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Suburban Propane Partners LP itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $17.18. Our model-based fair value is $15.33, about 11% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Suburban Propane Partners LP right now?
A fairly wide model range ($9.65 to $23.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) come from?
Earnings per share at Suburban Propane Partners LP grew +4.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.3 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Suburban Propane Partners LP
How large is the market capitalisation of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
The market capitalisation of Suburban Propane Partners LP is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Suburban Propane Partners LP is 0.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
Earnings per share at Suburban Propane Partners LP are $1.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
The dividend yield of Suburban Propane Partners LP is 7.6% (payout 55.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 67.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
The net margin of Suburban Propane Partners LP is 9.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Suburban Propane Partners LP is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Suburban Propane Partners LP is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
The operating margin of Suburban Propane Partners LP is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
Revenue at Suburban Propane Partners LP is growing +0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)?
Earnings per share at Suburban Propane Partners LP are growing −1.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) carry?
The net debt of Suburban Propane Partners LP is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026