SPS Commerce, Inc (SPSC) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $2.2B
SPS Commerce, Inc
SPSC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price +24.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($63.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $49.91 – $215.42 · fair‑value band $38.14 – $63.56 · the $73.38 price screens above the $50.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
SPS Commerce, Inc (SPSC) currently trades at $73.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.85, implying the stock looks roughly 30.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, SPS Commerce, Inc generated revenue of $762M at a net margin of 11.9%. Revenue grew 5.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $141M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $38.14 (bear case) to $63.56 (bull case); at $73.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -31%, SPSC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($92.73) versus Asset-Based ($17.77). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions in the United States. It offers solutions through SPS Commerce, a cloud-based platform that connects retailers, brands, distributors, manufacturers, and logistics providers, handling the complexity of modern commerce operations.
Full company description
SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions in the United States. It offers solutions through SPS Commerce, a cloud-based platform that connects retailers, brands, distributors, manufacturers, and logistics providers, handling the complexity of modern commerce operations. The company also provides Fulfillment, a comprehensive solution designed to streamline supply chain operation that sends and receives order data, ensuring accurate execution of required processes from order to invoicing and revenue recovery through fully automated operations; and Analytics product that simplifies managing sell-through data from customers business partners that handle data acquisition, cleansing, normalization, and delivery. In addition, it offers various complimentary products, such as assortment product, which simplifies the communication of robust, accurate item data by automatically translating item attributes, and hierarchies through single connection across all sales channels; and relationship management product that allows organizations to accelerate digitization of their supply chain and improve collaboration with suppliers through change management, onboarding programs, and supplier score carding. The company was formerly known as St. Paul Software, Inc. and changed its name to SPS Commerce, Inc. in May 2001. SPS Commerce, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
SPS Commerce, Inc reported revenue of $752M in FY2025 versus $385M in FY2021, a compound +18.2%/yr. Reported net income was $93.3M in FY2025, compounding +20.3%/yr from FY2021.
SPSC screens 31% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- SPS Commerce (SPSC) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- SPS Commerce (SPSC) Faces A 8% Fair Value Gap As Earnings And Guidance Land
- Why SPS Commerce Stock Crushed it on Friday
- SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Divestiture Sharpens ...
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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