Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Spectra Systems Corp stock £5.10, price £1.70, upside +200.0%, quality 78 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.02 – £2.51 · fair‑value band £2.45 – £7.75 · the £1.70 price screens below the £5.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 15, 2026.
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Spectra Systems Corporation invents, develops, and sells integrated optical systems in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Authentication Systems, Secure Transactions, Security Printing, and Banknote Cleaning.
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It offers integrated solutions, including a system of taggant materials and sensor equipment to authenticate banknotes and security documents; and banknote cleaning and disinfection systems.
The company also provides optical materials for security and quality control, such as fluorescent and phosphorescent pigments and dyes, invisible pigments and dyes, and gasochromic response materials; customized materials and hardware solutions; and internal control systems for integrity of the lottery and sports betting games.
In addition, it offers software and hardware systems comprising high-speed currency authentication sensors; and conventional and hybrid postage stamps, tax stamps, vouchers, coupons, certificates, and high-security documents.
The company was formerly known as Spectra Science Corporation and changed its name to Spectra Systems Corporation in June 2001. Spectra Systems Corporation was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.
Stock analysis
Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY) currently trades at £1.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £5.10, implying the stock looks roughly 67% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £9.45 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the £1.70 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £0.9400, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £2.45 (bear) to £7.75 (bull), the price of £1.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Spectra Systems Corp reported revenue of $64.3M in FY2025 versus $16.6M in FY2021, a compound +40.3%/yr. Reported net income was $20.1M in FY2025, compounding +40.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £83.3M Micro · P/E ratio 5.5 · P/S ratio 2.16 · EPS (TTM) £0.3097 · Dividend yield 6.1% · Net margin 25.3% · Return on equity 28.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 82 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, SPSY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£2.45Fair Value £5.10Bull£7.75
Price £1.70 · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.1810 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.4% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+23.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.31.0% vs 33.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 38%
2025 sits 215% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 723 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets27.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)25.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−38.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)5.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.17× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)2.16× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)11.5× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Spectra Systems Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPSY
Frequently asked questions
Is Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £5.10 versus a price of £1.70, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SPSY?
Our model-based fair value for Spectra Systems Corp is £5.10 (as of Nov 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £1.70.
What is the quality score of SPSY?
Spectra Systems Corp has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £5.10 (as of Nov 15, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £2.45, optimistic scenario £7.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Spectra Systems Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £5.10, about +200% upside versus a price of £1.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £2.45, optimistic scenario £7.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
Spectra Systems Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $50.9M (latest available figure, as of Nov 15, 2026).
Does Spectra Systems Corp pay a dividend?
Spectra Systems Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 6.06% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 15, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Spectra Systems Corp pays a dividend of £0.103 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 2, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2017. The payout ratio is 35.0% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 32.4%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.48 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Spectra Systems Corp would have to grow free cash flow by 4.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew 34.4 % per year. As of Nov 15, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPSY use?
Our models discount Spectra Systems Corp at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Spectra Systems Corp that is +4.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Spectra Systems Corp grew 34.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Spectra Systems Corp (+4.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.73 %: that much free cash flow Spectra Systems Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Spectra Systems Corp it is £5.10 per share (as of Nov 15, 2026), against a price of £1.70. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Spectra Systems Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 15, 2026, SPSY trades below its calculated fair value: price £1.70, fair value £5.10, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPSY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£1.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£5.10). For Spectra Systems Corp the two are £3.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Spectra Systems Corp worth?
The market values Spectra Systems Corp at about £83.3M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 15, 2026). Per share that is £1.70; our models calculate a fair value of £5.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPSY?
Our models span a range for Spectra Systems Corp: cautious scenario £2.45, base £5.10, optimistic £7.75 per share (as of Nov 15, 2026, price £1.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SPSY?
Spectra Systems Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5 (as of Nov 15, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £5.10 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 5.9 (reported 5.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 16.6. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Spectra Systems Corp (as of Nov 15, 2026): return on equity 28.9%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPSY from its 52-week high?
Spectra Systems Corp trades at £1.70, about 13% below its 52-week high of £1.96 and 52% above the low of £1.12 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £5.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Spectra Systems Corp?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Salesforce, Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Spectra Systems Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 15, 2026: price £1.70, calculated fair value £5.10 (+200%), Quality Score 78/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPSY calculated?
We run Spectra Systems Corp through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £5.10 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Spectra Systems Corp currently trades 67% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was £1.70. Our model-based fair value is £5.10, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Spectra Systems Corp right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (78/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (£2.45). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (£2.45 to £7.75). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY) come from?
Earnings per share at Spectra Systems Corp grew 34.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.7 %, EBIT margin +18.5 %, tax rate −2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Spectra Systems Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
The market capitalisation of Spectra Systems Corp is £83.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Spectra Systems Corp is 2.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
Earnings per share at Spectra Systems Corp are £0.3097 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
The dividend yield of Spectra Systems Corp is 6.1% (payout 35.0%, on adjusted earnings, reported 32.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
The net margin of Spectra Systems Corp is 25.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Spectra Systems Corp is 28.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Spectra Systems Corp is 20.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
The operating margin of Spectra Systems Corp is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
Revenue at Spectra Systems Corp is down 38.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +48.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY)?
Earnings per share at Spectra Systems Corp are down 71.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Spectra Systems Corp (SPSY) hold?
Spectra Systems Corp holds more cash than debt, $6.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 15, 2026