Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation stock $5.24, price $4.57, upside +14.7%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
23‑month range $3.12 – $760,760 · fair‑value band $3.43 – $7.36 · the $4.57 price screens below the $5.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Shibusawa Logistics Corporation provides logistics and warehousing services in Japan and internationally.
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The company provides strategic logistics services, such as warehousing and distribution processing for various types of cargo; truck transportation services, including consolidated transportation, chartered transportation, and ocean freight container transportation for customer's logistics; ocean and air import and export handling services comprising customs clearance, overland transport, and warehouse storage at departure and arrival ports and airports; document storage and trunk room storage; and moving &household goods storage.
It is also involved in EC fulfillment services; customs clearance; trade/intermediary business/management/leading of real estate; packaging/indication/storage of pharmaceuticals/quasi-drugs/cosmetics and medical equipment; planning/development/sales/operation management of information systems; employment agency; and life support of non-covered long-term care insurance.
The company was formerly known as The Shibusawa Warehouse Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shibusawa Logistics Corporation in January 2025. Shibusawa Logistics Corporation was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Koto, Japan.
Stock analysis
Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF) currently trades at $4.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.24, implying the stock looks roughly 13% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $11.70 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $4.57 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $4.52, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.43 (bear) to $7.36 (bull), the price of $4.57 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Shibusawa Logistics Corporation reported revenue of ¥79.7B in FY2026 versus ¥71.7B in FY2022, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.3B in FY2026, compounding +4.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $260M Micro · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) $0.5700 · Dividend yield 7.7% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 15%, SWRHF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.43Fair Value $5.24Bull$7.36
Price $4.57 · Upside +14.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1358 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$2.98$4.02$5.5081
Growth DCF$3.06$4.04$5.3480
Owner Earnings$6.39$8.42$11.2977
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$2.98$4.02$5.5081
Owner Earnings$6.39$8.42$11.2977
5Y Revenue Exit$3.18$4.92$7.2272
5Y EBITDA Exit$4.85$7.80$11.3375
5Y P/E Exit$6.56$10.75$15.2370
10Y Revenue Exit$2.96$4.38$6.0367
10Y EBITDA Exit$3.99$6.11$8.5968
10Y P/E Exit$4.95$7.88$11.0264
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$4.93$9.44$11.7866
EPV$2.28$2.67$2.9971
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$3.73$4.85$5.8769
DDM Multi-Stage$3.73$4.88$6.0667
Multiples
P/E Multiple$11.42$15.23$19.0463
P/S Multiple$9.25$12.33$15.4158
P/B Multiple$25.94$34.59$43.2455
EV/EBIT$4.13$6.13$8.1265
EV/EBITDA$6.10$8.75$11.4067
EV/Revenue$2.42$4.25$6.0852
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$3.84$5.15$7.6954
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$3.06$4.04$5.3480
Rev-Margin DCF$3.18$4.99$7.0472
Economic Profit
Residual Income$6.39$6.85$7.6176
ROIC Compounder$2.28$2.67$2.9972
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$8.19$11.70$15.2167
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−8.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.7% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
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Is Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.24 versus the last price from Sep 30, 2026 of $4.57, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SWRHF?
Our model-based fair value for Shibusawa Logistics Corporation is $5.24 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 30, 2026): $4.57.
What is the quality score of SWRHF?
Shibusawa Logistics Corporation has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.24 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.43, optimistic scenario $7.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shibusawa Logistics Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.24, about +15% upside versus the last price from Sep 30, 2026 of $4.57 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.43, optimistic scenario $7.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
Shibusawa Logistics Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥80.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Shibusawa Logistics Corporation pay a dividend?
Shibusawa Logistics Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 7.68% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Shibusawa Logistics Corporation pays a dividend of $0.351 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.7%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. The payout ratio is 48.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.18 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shibusawa Logistics Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +8.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SWRHF use?
Our models discount Shibusawa Logistics Corporation at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shibusawa Logistics Corporation that is +8.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shibusawa Logistics Corporation grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +8.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (+8.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.73 %: that much free cash flow Shibusawa Logistics Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shibusawa Logistics Corporation it is $5.24 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $4.57. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Shibusawa Logistics Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SWRHF trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.57, fair value $5.24, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWRHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.24). For Shibusawa Logistics Corporation the two are $0.6710 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shibusawa Logistics Corporation worth?
The market values Shibusawa Logistics Corporation at about $260M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $4.57; our models calculate a fair value of $5.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWRHF?
Our models span a range for Shibusawa Logistics Corporation: cautious scenario $3.43, base $5.24, optimistic $7.36 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $4.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SWRHF?
Shibusawa Logistics Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.24 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWRHF from its 52-week high?
Shibusawa Logistics Corporation trades at $4.57, at its 52-week high of $4.57 and 9% above the low of $4.19 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shibusawa Logistics Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shibusawa Logistics Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $4.57, calculated fair value $5.24 (+15%), Quality Score 44/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWRHF calculated?
We run Shibusawa Logistics Corporation through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $5.24 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Shibusawa Logistics Corporation currently trades 13% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 30, 2026 and stands at $4.57. Our model-based fair value is $5.24, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shibusawa Logistics Corporation right now?
A fairly wide model range ($3.43 to $7.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
The market capitalisation of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation is $260M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation is 0.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
Earnings per share at Shibusawa Logistics Corporation are $0.5700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
The dividend yield of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation is 7.7% (payout 61.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
The net margin of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation is 7.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
The operating margin of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
Revenue at Shibusawa Logistics Corporation is growing +4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF)?
Earnings per share at Shibusawa Logistics Corporation are growing +67.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shibusawa Logistics Corporation (SWRHF) carry?
The net debt of Shibusawa Logistics Corporation is ¥16.2B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Why does Shibusawa Logistics Corporation meet the fair value rule although the fair value shown is lower?
Dilution deducted: $6.16 → $5.24. The share count grew strongly in the last fiscal year, so each share is a smaller slice. We deduct for that: $5.24 instead of $6.16. As in the backtest, the fair value rule checks the value before: +35% against the price.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026