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PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk (TBMS) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · ID · Market cap 885B IDR

PT PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk TBMS · JK
Price1,210 IDR
Fair Value1,944 IDR
Upside+60.7%
Quality46/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 0.7% net margin
negative free cash flow
Ranks above peers (7/11)
Narrow moat 28/100
Evidence: High Range 1,512 IDR – 2,376 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from 1,616 IDR to 1,944 IDR (+20.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +0.4% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 61% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (1,512 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

1,523 IDR 401.39 IDR Fair Value 1,944 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 401.39 IDR – 1,523 IDR · fair‑value band 1,512 IDR – 2,376 IDR · the 1,210 IDR price screens below the 1,944 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk (TBMS) currently trades at 1,210 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,944 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 60.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk generated revenue of 972M IDR at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue grew 24.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.1%. Net debt stands at 40.7M IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 1,512 IDR (bear case) to 2,376 IDR (bull case); at 1,210 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -72% fair-value upside, at 61%, TBMS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 1,186 IDR 1,186 IDR 1,186 IDR 76
Gordon GGM 444.91 IDR 593.21 IDR 593.21 IDR 70
Growth-Adj P/E 889.82 IDR 1,335 IDR 1,631 IDR 68
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 1,335 IDR 1,631 IDR 2,373 IDR 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 593.21 IDR 741.52 IDR 741.52 IDR 54
EPV 1,631 IDR 1,928 IDR 2,076 IDR 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 444.91 IDR 593.21 IDR 593.21 IDR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 444.91 IDR 593.21 IDR 889.82 IDR 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 1,335 IDR 1,631 IDR 2,076 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 1,038 IDR 1,335 IDR 1,780 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 1,038 IDR 1,335 IDR 1,780 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 2,521 IDR 3,114 IDR 3,856 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 2,076 IDR 2,669 IDR 3,263 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 1,780 IDR 2,521 IDR 3,114 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 741.52 IDR 1,038 IDR 1,483 IDR 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 1,186 IDR 1,186 IDR 1,186 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 1,631 IDR 1,928 IDR 2,225 IDR 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 889.82 IDR 1,335 IDR 1,631 IDR 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (1,631 IDR) versus Dividend Discount (593.21 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 972M IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) +24.1%
Net margin 0.7%
Return on equity 9.1%
Free cash flow −24.1M IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 63,421.1
More key figures
Operating margin 1.9%
EPS (TTM) 0.0190 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) +405%
Net debt 40.7M IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 73
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 46
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk manufactures, sells, and exports copper and aluminum rods and wires in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Copper Rod and Wire, and Aluminum Rod segments. The Copper Rod and Wire segment produces copper rods and various sizes of copper wires. The Aluminum Rod segment produces EC grade rod, alloy rod, and TAL rod.

Full company description

PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk manufactures, sells, and exports copper and aluminum rods and wires in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Copper Rod and Wire, and Aluminum Rod segments. The Copper Rod and Wire segment produces copper rods and various sizes of copper wires. The Aluminum Rod segment produces EC grade rod, alloy rod, and TAL rod. PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Jakarta Barat, Indonesia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk reported revenue of 909M IDR in FY2025 versus 721M IDR in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was 4.0M IDR in FY2025, compounding −12.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
909M IDR
Latest YoY
+5.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.1%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−23.6%
Revenue +6.0%/yr
FY21 721M IDR
FY22 723M IDR
FY23 744M IDR
FY24 864M IDR
FY25 909M IDR
Net income −12.9%/yr
FY21 7.0M IDR
FY22 5.2M IDR
FY23 6.2M IDR
FY24 8.9M IDR
FY25 4.0M IDR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +3.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.2 pp

of which total revenue +5.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin −4.0 pp
Tax rate +0.6 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TBMS

Peer Group

Metal Fabrication · 244 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +61% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Revenue growth 24% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.18× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.09× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.8× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 36
PAST 36 · sector 21
HEALTH 0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 25

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk (TBMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,944 IDR versus a price of 1,210 IDR, about +61% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TBMS?
Our model-based fair value for PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk is 1,944 IDR (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 1,210 IDR.
What is the quality score of TBMS?
PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk (TBMS)?
PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 972M IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TBMS?
The net profit margin of PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk is about 0.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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